AIM movers: Tribal improvement and Metals One share consolidation and fundraising

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Education administration software provider Tribal Group (LON: TRB) says 2024 revenues and cash flow are ahead of expectations. Singer raised its forecast revenues by 5% to £90m, while pre-tax profit is expected to be £12m. There was £5m of legacy contract revenues that are reducing, so 2025 revenues are expected to be flat, which would mean 2025 pre-tax profit of £10.4m. The share price recovered 21% to 47.2p.

Fusion Antibodies (LON: FAB) says that the OptiMAL validation project is proceeding as planned and the National Cancer Institute has identified a number of antibody expressing cells that positively bind to their targets of interest. Analysis of the DNA by Fusion Antibodies will take several months. The share price imrpved 8% to 8.75p.

Artemis Resources (LON: ARV) has identified targets for drilling at the Karratha gold project in early February. Three targets will initially be tested. The share price rose 6.25% to 0.425p.

Europa Oil & Gas (LON: EOG) is hoping to secure a full carry on an exploration well in Equatoria Guinea on the Barracuda gas prospect. The Irish government appears more favourable to oil and gas exploration and that will make it easier to find a partner there. There is sufficient cash for 2025 requirements. The share price is 6.25% higher at 0.85p.

FALLERS

Metals One (LON: MET1) is raising up to £5m, or £3m after costs, plus up to £100,000 from a retail offer. A convertible loan note will raise £600,000, which will be interest free, and £4.4m via a warrant instrument. There will also be a ten-for-one share consolidation – the retail offer price is then 2p. The effective exercise of the warrant instrument depends on the consolidation and shareholder approval, plus a 24-month consulting agreement with MavDB costing £2m. The PEA for the Finland – Black Schist Ni-Cu-Co-Zn project has been published. The share price slumped 47.1% to 0.225p.

Autoantibody profiling company Oncimmune (LON: ONC) should double revenues to £3m in 2024. Subsequent interim revenues are set to rise by one-fifth to £1.4m. New contracts are being added, but the process has become slower. There are potential deals that could have a large effect on the second half, but the timing is uncertain. One contract is deferred into next year. The annual cost base has been lowered to £5m. Additional finance will be required. The share price dipped 21.7% to 9.75p.

Celadon Pharmaceuticals (LON: CEL) says it should receive the remaining £103,000 from its committed credit facility in February. There is enough cash to last until March if the drawdown is further delayed. Discussions have ended with one previously mentioned potential finance provider, but there are still other potential providers. The share price decreased 19.4% to 14.5p.

Maintel (LON: MAI) revenues were lower than expected in 2024 and net debt was higher than anticipated at £16.7m. Revenues were £97.9m and the loss of contracts has reduced forecasts for 2025. The focus has been higher margin business. Pre-tax profit is still estimated to have improved from £3.9m to £4.8m in 2024, but earnings are lower. A permanent chief executive is being recruited. The share price declined 15.2% to 235p.

Growth in the human capital management business in North America offset delays in other parts of Newmark Security (LON: NWT) in the first half. Revenues fell 2% to £10.2m and the loss increased from £126,000 to £431,000. There is an increasing focus on recurring software revenues and that is helping to edge up overall gross margins. The second half is always stronger, and Newmark Security has built up a base in the North America to enable further growth in the region, while UK and European markets are more subdued. The share price fell 9.38% to 72.5p.

FTSE 100 rockets to another fresh record high

It’s up, up and away for the FTSE 100 as London’s flagship index rocketed to another fresh all-time record high on Friday.

After smashing through the 8,600 level like it wasn’t there yesterday, the FTSE 100 firmly had 8,700 in its sights on Friday after gaining another 0.5% in early trade.

The combination of hopes around interest rates and positive corporate developments has helped the index higher this week. Investors will also be encouraged that the index still presents value compared to peers in the US.

“Despite the FTSE 100 outperforming its US peers so far this year, UK indices continue to trade at significant valuation discounts, not least due to differing sector exposures,” said Mark Nelson, Senior Equity Analyst at wealth manager Killik & Co.

Indeed, the repricing of interest rate futures in recent days suggests the Bank of England will cut interest rates between 3 -5 times this year, which will serve as a tailwind for risk appetite and should help support the index.

“It’s been a record-breaking week for the Footsie and enthusiasm is still high, with the index up 5% year to date,” explained Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Given the volatility this week on Wall Street as investors fret about the trajectory of AI spend, and the impact of Trump’s tariff plans, there’s been a flight to safer havens, offering more reliable returns.”

While ‘safer’ stocks such as utility shares were again well bid on Friday, the mining, financials and engineering sectors with more cyclical attributes joined the rally and helped to take the index to record highs.

Smiths Group shot to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard after announcing it would sell a number of business units after a period of shareholder pressure.

“‘You say jump and I say how high’ appears to be the response of industrial conglomerate Smiths Group to pressure from activist investor Engine Capital,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell said.

“Smiths Group says it plans to spin off its Interconnect arm – which makes broadband connection and antenna parts – and Smiths Detection which makes X-Ray machines for airports. In reality, it is unlikely these decisions have been made purely because Engine published a letter a week or so ago. These plans have likely been in the works for some time, although whether they have been brought forward is another matter.”

Smiths Group shares were 11% higher at the time of writing.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Modern Investment Strategies

The rapid growth of technology has reshaped investment strategies, placing artificial intelligence (AI) at the centre of this transformation. Financial professionals are increasingly using advanced tools to refine decision-making and manage portfolios effectively. AI enables investors to analyse extensive datasets, identify patterns, and make precise choices that improve results. Leveraging AI for investment strategies enhances opportunities for higher returns while providing insights previously unavailable.

Transforming Data Analysis with AI

AI-driven data analysis has significantly improved investment practices. Traditional data processing often struggles to manage the scale and complexity of today’s financial information. With AI, investors can use machine learning algorithms that learn from historical data to identify patterns and predict market trends with high accuracy. This advanced capability allows for deeper insights into subtle market behaviours, enabling precise forecasts and customised investment approaches.

Beyond forecasting, AI can monitor multiple securities simultaneously, providing real-time updates on critical market fluctuations. This timely information helps investors act quickly on buy or sell decisions, increasing their opportunities for returns. While AI enhances data analysis and efficiency, human judgement and expertise remain vital for navigating unpredictable financial conditions. For those looking to communicate their investment insights effectively, crafting impactful presentations using AI technology can be a game-changer.

Enhancing Decision-Making with AI Insights

The decision-making process in investing traditionally combines quantitative analysis with qualitative judgment. AI enriches this process by offering deep insights and actionable intelligence that simplify complex decisions. By analysing past performance, investor sentiment, and external economic factors, AI delivers tailored reports and recommendations aligned with specific investment goals.

In addition to shaping strategies, AI significantly enhances risk management. It identifies potential challenges early, such as credit risks, market volatility, or sector instability. For instance, AI algorithms can assess the creditworthiness of assets, monitor geopolitical risks, and simulate economic scenarios, helping investors anticipate potential outcomes. This enables portfolio adjustments that foster resilience against market fluctuations.

AI also simplifies data-driven investing through accessible platforms designed for users without technical expertise. These tools feature intuitive dashboards and pre-built algorithms, making advanced analytics available to all. Investors can use these platforms to apply insights more effectively, optimising strategies while minimising guesswork.

While AI provides powerful capabilities, human oversight remains essential. Combining AI’s precision with human experience ensures a balanced approach, fostering well-informed, strategic decisions.

The Impact of Collaboration in AI-Driven Investing

The integration of AI with collaborative tools has transformed the way investment professionals work. Collaborative platforms enable teams to share insights, data, and analyses in real-time, fostering a more dynamic decision-making process. This collective approach ensures that diverse perspectives and expertise are incorporated, leading to well-rounded and effective investment strategies.

Platforms designed for collaboration in investment settings make AI tools more accessible and actionable for teams. For example, professionals can work together to create detailed reports, presentations, and analyses. The inclusion of multimedia capabilities within these platforms further enriches the way complex ideas are communicated. By presenting intricate data visually, teams can articulate strategies and insights more clearly to clients and stakeholders.

Design tools that support collaboration play a pivotal role in improving communication within investment teams. These tools enable professionals to create impactful presentations with templates, graphic elements, and multimedia integration. Such visuals not only simplify complex data but also help align team efforts by creating clear, cohesive narratives.

AI-driven collaboration doesn’t just improve individual performance; it amplifies team productivity by unifying efforts toward shared goals. Advanced platforms also include project management features, allowing teams to assign tasks, set deadlines, and track progress efficiently. Cloud-based systems facilitate seamless collaboration, ensuring every team member stays aligned on objectives.

The Importance of Continuous Learning in AI

As AI technology advances, staying informed and adaptable is essential for investment professionals. Regularly engaging with the latest developments in AI tools and methodologies ensures that investors can fully utilise these technologies to improve their strategies. Participating in workshops, webinars, and online courses focused on AI’s applications in finance provides practical knowledge and keeps professionals prepared for emerging opportunities.

Networking with industry experts and peers is also valuable. Discussions about best practices, innovative tools, and real-world success stories can reveal strategies that enhance decision-making. Attending industry conferences and knowledge-sharing sessions introduces professionals to the latest advancements that may refine their investment approaches.

Promoting a culture of continuous learning within investment teams is crucial for long-term success. Encouraging team members to explore AI tools, participate in training, and share insights creates an environment focused on improvement and innovation. Incorporating AI-related certifications or partnering with training organisations can help team members gain specialised skills. 

Additionally, leveraging internal resources such as knowledge repositories or cross-team training sessions can ensure every team member is equipped to handle emerging challenges. For example, organisations can implement mentorship programmes where experienced team members guide others in adopting AI tools, boosting both individual and team efficiency.

The Future of Investment Strategies with AI

As the financial sector evolves, artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly integral to investment strategies. Advances in machine learning, data processing, and predictive analytics are enabling investors to achieve higher levels of accuracy and efficiency. AI is poised to reshape investment firms by streamlining operations and enhancing decision-making processes.

Looking forward, staying updated on the latest AI developments is essential for investment professionals. Engaging with industry experts, attending specialised forums, and exploring educational resources equips investors with the skills to utilise AI effectively. Rather than being a passing trend, AI represents a transformational shift in how financial decisions are approached.

With the continued sophistication of AI tools, investors will gain the ability to explore untapped asset classes and develop innovative strategies. AI’s ability to monitor global market trends, simulate economic scenarios, and assess risks will further empower investors. These capabilities allow firms to diversify portfolios, manage risks more effectively, and optimise long-term growth.

Ethical Considerations in AI-Driven Investing

As AI becomes a cornerstone of modern investment strategies, ethical considerations must remain a priority. The use of AI raises concerns about data privacy, transparency, and fairness. For instance, algorithms rely heavily on historical data, which may carry biases that could lead to skewed predictions or discriminatory practices. Investment firms must ensure that AI models are rigorously audited to minimise these risks.

Another critical aspect is the transparency of AI systems. Investors and stakeholders should have a clear understanding of how AI-driven decisions are made, particularly when large sums of capital are at stake. Adopting explainable AI frameworks can help demystify complex algorithms, ensuring accountability in decision-making processes.

Lastly, ethical AI use involves protecting sensitive financial data from breaches or misuse. By prioritising robust cybersecurity measures and adhering to regulatory guidelines, firms can maintain trust and integrity while benefiting from AI’s transformative potential.

Share Tip: Macfarlane Group – ahead of its 2024 results due shortly, the shares of this packaging group look under-rated

Within the next few weeks we should be seeing Macfarlane Group (LON:MACF) announcing its Final Results for the year to end-December 2024. 
I believe that, at the current share price of just 105.50p, this £168m capitalised group is looking very undervalued. 
A good investor boost may become evident with the group’s accompanying statement on its current year business prospects and the synergistic acquisition two weeks ago of The Pitreavie Group. 
The Business 
Macfarlane Group, which was established way back in 1899 and went public in 1973, is headquartered in Glasgow. 
...

Smiths Group shares soar on break up plans

Industrial technology conglomerate Smiths Group has unveiled plans for a significant restructuring, announcing its intention to sell or separate two of its four main divisions as it seeks to streamline operations and boost shareholder returns.

Investors cheered the news, and shares jumped over 15% in early trading to touch all-time record highs.

Smiths Group reported organic revenue growth of 15.8% for the three months to 1 November 2024 but had been under pressure to explore options to boost shareholder value.

The FTSE 100 company will focus on its John Crane and Flex-Tek businesses, which specialise in industrial technologies for flow and heat management. These divisions have demonstrated strong performance, each achieving operating profit margins above 20% and returns on capital employed exceeding 25% in fiscal year 2024.

Under the restructuring plan, Smiths will launch a sale process for its Interconnect division, targeting completion by the end of 2025. Following this, the company plans to separate its Detection business either through a UK demerger or sale.

Explaining the rationale behind the strategy, Roland Carter, CEO of Smiths Group, said: “We start from a position of strength and as we execute this strategy, we will become a more focused business with significant potential for future growth and value creation. Focusing on our world-class John Crane and Flex-Tek businesses and carefully managing the separation of Smiths Interconnect and Smiths Detection, we will deliver significant value for all stakeholders.

The strategic shift comes after a period of robust financial performance, with the group delivering 7% compound annual organic revenue growth between FY2021 and FY2024. The company believes the separation of Interconnect and Detection will better serve these businesses’ prospects while creating additional value for shareholders.

The group has also announced a significant increase in its share buyback programme from £150 million to £500 million, with the additional £350 million to be returned to shareholders by the end of 2025. This will have played a part in today’s jump in shares.

UK house price growth slows in January amid affordability pressures

New data from Nationwide showed the pace of UK house price growth slowed in January as higher borrowing costs dampened demand.

Average house prices rose just 0.1% in January month-on-month, and the annual rate of house price growth fell to 4.1%.

The slowing in house price growth coincided with a tick higher in mortgage rates amid expectations of less interest rate cuts through the rest of the year. This ultimately weighed on affordability.

“The housing market continues to show resilience despite ongoing affordability pressures,” explained Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist.

“As we highlighted in our recent affordability report, while there has been a modest improvement over the last year, affordability remains stretched by historic standards. A prospective buyer earning the average UK income and buying a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would have a monthly mortgage payment equivalent to 36% of their take-home pay – well above the long-run average of 30%.

Analysts highlighted that while house price growth had slowed, first-time buyers – the lifeblood of the property market – were still finding it difficult to get on the ladder.

“House prices crept up in January. It wasn’t exactly a stellar start to the year, especially compared to the powerful growth we saw in December. However, prices are still under pressure from buyers trying to clamber through the stamp duty holiday window, before it slams shut at the end of March. Another small bump for house prices is another knock for first time buyers,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The property market risks becoming a victim of its own success, with prices near a record high. Nationwide said the house price to earnings ratio hit 5.0 at the end of 2024, which is well above the long run average of 3.9. When you add in the fact that the average 2-year fixed rate mortgage stuck stubbornly around the 5.52% mark this week (Moneyfacts), potential buyers will be horribly stretched.”

Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear expands retail footprint with fresh distribution agreement

Tekcapital portfolio company Innovative Eyewear has expanded its retail exposure in the US through a nationwide distribution agreement with prominent American technology retailer Micro Centre.

The partnership will see Innovative Eyewear’s Lucyd smart eyewear range, which includes branded collections from Nautica, Eddie Bauer and Reebok, available both online and across Micro Centre’s network of retail locations throughout the United States.

Tekcapital said the agreement with Micro Centre was the result of Lucyd’s partnership with Windsor Eyes, major eyewear retailer in North America.

As part of the collaboration, Micro Centre will implement Lucyd’s bespoke interactive display units within their stores. These displays have been designed to enhance the customer experience and boost sales through engaging product presentations.

Micro Centre, established in 1979 in Columbus, Ohio, has established itself as one of America’s leading suppliers of information technology, communications equipment and electronic devices and adds to the growing list of distributors carrying Lucyd smart eyewear.

“We are thrilled to announce our partnership with Micro Center, one of the leading tech retailers in the U.S., known for its wide selection of cutting-edge technology products and passionate tech-focused customer base,” said Harrison Gross, CEO & Co-Founder of Innovative Eyewear.

“Micro Center is the ideal partner for our smart eyewear, as their customers are early adopters of innovative technology who are eager to experience the latest advancements. Further, Lucyd smart eyewear connects with any Bluetooth-enabled device, such as smartphones, laptops, desktops, and game controllers making it an ideal companion product.”

AIM movers: Kromek signs deal with Siemens Healthcare and Futura Medical progress disappoints

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Mosman Oil and Gas (LON: MSMN) says the operator of the Vector helium project, where Mosman Oil and Gas has a 20% working interest, has signed a drilling contract to drill five wells. The purchase of an 82.5% stake in Sagebrush project should be completed by early February. The share price jumped 38% to 0.0345p.

Medical and security technology developer Kromek (LON: KMK) has secured multi-year agreements with Siemens Healthcare, which will produce cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) detectors for single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) applications. Kromek will receive $37.5m over five years and the first instalment is $25m. This is a non-exclusive agreement and enables Kromek to move into profit this year. Interim revenues fell from £7.1m to £3.7m. There was £600,000 in the bank at the end of October 2024, although net debt was £11.7m. The strengthened balance sheet should at least delay any requirement for another share issue. The share price recovered 27.4% to 6.75p.

Sancus Lending (LON: LEND) says majority shareholder Somerston is providing up to £10m of junior funding to support loan financing facilities. The company has drawn down £105m of its existing £125m loan facility. At the end of 2024, loan under management was £238m. Revenues increased 36% to £16.8m and the company should breakeven after a £2.8m gain on the repurchase of zero dividend preference shares.  The share price rose 28.9% to 0.58p.

Fevertree Drinks (LON: FEVR) has signed a strategic partnership with brewer Molson Coors, which will acquire a 7.5% stake in the mixer drinks supplier at 654.2p/share. The £71m raised will be used for share buybacks. The company’s mixer drinks will be sold through Molson Coors’ US distribution network and marketing will be ramped up. There will also be US production of mixer drinks. The share price moved ahead by 21.9% to 802.25p.

ITM Power (LON: ITM) reported interims in line with the recent trading statement, but cash expectations have been upgraded. Interim revenues were £15.2m, including £10.8m from one customer, and cash was £203m at the end of October 2024. The cash outflow is slowing, and net cash is expected to be £185m-£195m at the end of April 2025. The contract backlog is £135.3m. The share price increased 7.48% to 37.66p.

FALLERS

Futura Medical (LON: FUM) traded in line with expectations in 2024, but US sales of erectile dysfunction product Eroxon are not growing as quickly as hoped. US distributor Haleon is refining its marketing strategy. Some European launches have been delayed. It is unclear whether the market size will be as large as anticipated. Net cash is £6.6m. That will last until late 2026. The share price slumped 41.8% to 18.1p.  

Petards Group (LON: PEG) 2024 revenues were lower than forecast at £12.1m, although there was an improvement in the second half. The loss is expected to increase to £900,000. The order book for security and surveillance systems has nearly trebled to £7.1m. Rail demand remains weak but there is potential for recovery. The share price dipped 18.8% to 6.5p.

Hospitality systems supplier Vianet (LON: VNET) says slow customer decisions have hit new business and unattended retail customers are taking up the rental option rather than buying outright. Forecast 2024-25 revenues have been reduced by 9% to £15.7m. Cavendish has more than halved it earnings forecast to 2.8p/share. The share price fell 11.8% to 89.5p.

Ex-dividends

BP Marsh (LON: BPM) is paying an interim dividend of 6.78p/share and the share price slid 10p to 685p.

Fonix (LON: FNX) is paying a dividend of 3p/share and the share price is unchanged at 222.5p.

FTSE 100 gains after Fed keeps rates on hold

On Thursday, the FTSE 100 attacked the 8,600 level as positive reactions to corporate earnings in both the UK and US lifted the mood.

Airtel Africa and St James’s Place were the FTSE 100’s standout performers, with gains of 9% and 8%, respectively.

US stocks had a minor wobble overnight after the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in a ‘hawkish hold’, which signalled to the market that they shouldn’t expect too much from the Fed this year in terms of rate cuts.

“The Fed, as expected, kept interest rates in a holding pattern, but dropped its recent mention of inflation making progress,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“With threats and speculation flying around about trade tariffs and the potential impact on consumer prices, its little wonder policymakers seem in no rush to cut rates again, especially given the resilience of the US economy.”

The S&P 500 sank after the decision was released yesterday evening, but most of the lost ground was quickly recovered as a raft of earnings from US tech giants had a net positive on US indices. Meta rose on strong results but Microsoft shares fell as cloud revenue growth slowed. Tesla investors choose to look past a soft quarter to the promise of earnings growth over the coming year.

Although there was still evidence of concern around the emergence of DeepSeek as Nvidia shares slipped back again in US trade yesterday, the pessimism looks to be largely focused on chipmakers, with most of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ unscathed.

The turnaround in the final hours of US trade translated into an upbeat start in Europe, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.3% at the time of writing.

Shell shares rose following the release of fourth-quarter results. Shell released an earnings teaser earlier this month that dampened the impact of final quarterly results, so the sharp drop in adjusting earnings and EBITDA were largely priced in. 

“Shell’s fourth-quarter underlying profit slumped 39% on a sequential basis to $3.6bn, bringing the full-year total to $23.7bn, 16% lower than 2023,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“The slowdown at the end of 2024 reflected lower margins in its trading businesses as well as the marketing division which includes its network of petrol forecourts. Lower oil prices also played their part. Exploration well write-offs were another headwind reflecting the increasing difficulty of discovering new sources of hydrocarbons.

“But one thing that has kept flowing is cash. Shell generated $8.7bn of free cash flow in the final quarter and nearly $40bn over the year as a whole.”

Oil is finding its feet after several days of declines, which is providing additional support for Shell. BP rose in sympathy.

BT Group was the top faller after the company issued yet another disappointing trading update that revealed little to no growth across all business units.

“BT fell 4.1% after a patchy third quarter. It’s all well and good talking about cost transformation when sales are falling nearly across the board. Openreach was the only business area to show revenue progression,” explained Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

CT Private Equity Trust Investor Presentation January 2025 

Download the Presentation Slides here.

CT Private Equity Trust offers a simple way to become a Private Equity Investor. We make it possible for smaller, individual investors to access the complex world of private equity and make it part of their investment portfolio simply by buying our shares.

We invest in high-quality small and mid-sized private companies, mainly across the UK, Europe and US, that are growing, profitable and have the management and strategy to continue to succeed. Opportunities are sourced by our large and well-established network of expert Private Equity managers. Our diversified strategy means that we are invested in over 500 companies with 50 carefully selected Private Equity managers, aiming to reduce risk and helping us find the best small and mid-size companies at attractive prices.

Our lead fund manager, Hamish Mair and his team have managed the trust’s investments since launch over 25 years ago. Hamish is one of only eight fund managers in the world to outperform Warren Buffett over the last 20 years*.

*Source: AJ Bell article “The funds and trusts that have beaten Warren Buffett” 1st May 2024