Britain’s economy may pick up faster than expected, according to the latest figures released by the Confederation of British Industry.
The CBI predicted “decent quarterly GDP growth”, and upgraded its forecast to growth of 2.6% this year and 2.5% in 2016.
Joh Cridland, CBI Director-General, said: “We’re encouraged by the twin engined-growth of household spending, spurred by stronger wage increases and low inflation, buttressed by business investment”.
The CBI also stated that, given these figures, it expected the Bank of England to announce its first rate rise in seven years in the first quarter of 2016.
Global markets have been volatile in early trading, after Chinese shares dropped nearly 9 percent overnight to 3 year lows.
Investors are growing increasingly worried about trouble in the world’s second biggest economy. London’s FTSE 100 was down by 2.5 percent in early trade, while major markets in France and Germany also opened down by more than 3 percent.
This news was coupled with a sharp drop in the price of the dollar and major commodities.
Copper fell 2.5 percent, hitting a six-year low of $4,920 a tonne, and nickel slid 4.6 percent to its lowest since 2009 at $9,730 a tonne.
Takako Masai, head of research at Shinsei Bank in Tokyo told Reuters: “Markets are panicking. Things are starting look like the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s. Speculators are selling assets that seem the most vulnerable”.
Oil prices have also slumped to six year lows, with U.S. crude was down 3 percent at $39.20 a barrel, while Brent lost 2.4 percent to $44.40 a barrel.
Beijing announced plans this morning to allow its main state pension fund to invest in the stock market, as part of a series of measures designed to stabilise the markets. Earlier this month China made a surprise move by devaluing the yuan to increase exports.
Over the past week, the Shanghai index fell 12%, adding up to a 30% drop since the middle of June.
Nigeria could be the next to devalue their currency Analysts at Societe Generale have earmarked the Nigerian Naira as the next Emerging Market currency to face devaluation.
In the last week, China, Vietnam and Kazakhstan have devalued their currency after coming under pressure from a falling oil price and the prospect of a US rate hike.
Nigerian’s currency has remained remarkably static during this period, however authorities may have to act due to their high dependence on oil. Currency devaluation has been the source of market volatility over the last week and if Nigeria were to follow suit, the turmoil in global markets may not be over just yet.
China was the first to embark on a path and devaluation, a move that heavily hit exporters to the world’s second largest economy.
Nigeria may not have the impact on global markets that China did, but a similar course of action will undoubtedly add to market concerns.
The world is going to end.
Shares are plummeting and that’s what the mainstream media would have you believe.
Analysts are calling it sheer panic.
“Global markets are in panic mode as the full scale of China’s slowdown becomes clearer,” said Angus Nicholson of CFD & Spreadbetting firm IG.
Although not at the very bottom of the range of investor emotions, we are close to the bottom and very near the point of maximum financial opportunity.
It is notoriously difficult to fight emotions when investing but those that can take a step back and look forward a number of months may be handsomely rewarded.
As Warren Buffet once said ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.’
The above diagram is a well know expression of the emotional roller coaster investors experience when investing, so if you are staring into the abyss, do bear it in mind.
(Click to enlarge)
Markit Flash euro zone PMI showed growth on last month’s figures at 54.1, up from 53.9 last month. This is the fastest pace of increase for four years.
The figures were driven by accelerating growth in both manufacturing and service.
Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit said:
“The flash PMI suggests that the eurozone is still experiencing one of its best periods of economic growth and job creation during the past four years GDP growth is tracking close to 0.4 percent so far in the third quarter.”
Growth in Europe was led by Germany, but offset by disappointing job losses in France.
Dobson comments: “The key to getting France fully back on track would be a turnaround in manufacturing, with the sector still offsetting gains seen at French service providers”
Strong figures in Europe are in stark contrast with China’s PMI released, which fuelled fears of a crisis in the world’s second biggest economy after showing a contraction.
Factory activity in the worlds largest economy China has shrunk at its fastest pace for more than six years, according to figures released today.
The private Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped from 47.8 in July to 47.1 in August. Any figure below 50 shows contraction.
These figures are the lowest since 2009, just after the global financial crisis. Official figures released earlier in August showed a 7 percent slowdown in growth for the country.
These figures are the latest in a series of events suggesting that China’s economy may be in trouble. It’s markets have been increasingly volatile over the past few weeks, prompting government intervention to increase stability.
The average Londoner now spends two thirds of their income on rent. Both house prices and rent have shot up in recent years, and it shows no sign of abating; this is bad news for any young professionals looking to get a foot on the property ladder, but for anyone looking to invest there are clear opportunities. Whether you’re buying to live or buying to let, we’ve compiled a list of UK Investor Magazine’s top ten hot spots for property investment.
We have made a note of the average value of properties in each area, as well as the value change over the past 12 months and five years. For context, the average house price in London is £620,557, with a change of +3.74% over one year and 31.34% over five. This can be compared to England as a whole, where the average house price is £291,620, with a change of 3.67% over the past year and 16.49% over five years. These figures show just how fast the property market in London is moving compared to that of the rest of the UK.
Bayswater
With close proximity to Hyde Park and Kensington Gardens, Bayswater is more affordable than its famous neighbours Mayfair, Marylebone and Notting Hill. Streets are lined with elegant, white Georgian houses, and transport is good – Central line stations Queensway and Lancaster Gate are nearby, and Bayswater itself is on the District and Circle Line. The West End, Kensington and Knightsbridge are just a short walk away, as is the mainline station Paddington. When Crossrail opens in 2018, Canary Wharf will just be 15 minutes away. This little area has the same charm and desirability as the more expensive West London neighbourhoods, but without the price tag – at the moment.
Average value: £1,221,895
Value change (12 months): +2.02%
Value change (5 years): +37.75%
Dalston
East London area Dalston is further out than its trendy cousin Shoreditch, but has the same vibe. The area is served by several overground stations, linking to the North, Liverpool Street and the City, and still has plenty of plenty of bars, pubs and clubs. It’s close enough to Islington to have a relaxed, more grown-up feel and is near to both Victoria Park and London Fields.
Average value: £563,306
Value change (12 months):+5.87%Value change (5 years):+39.28%Dalston has showed an impressive change over the past year, shooting up 5.87%, nearly double that of the rest of London. Now is the time to invest here, before prices shoot up too high.Gipsy Hill
This little pocket of south London is rarely recognised when mentioned in conversation. Nestled between Norwood, Dulwich and Crystal Palace, it has good rail links to Victoria, London Bridge and the South, as well as buses to Brixton and Clapham. There are plenty of pubs and bars and it has a friendly, family atmosphere.
Average value: £473,882
Value change (12 months):+3.05%Value change (5 years):+37.10%View from the top of Gipsy HillPeckham
Peckham might be a little rough around the edges, but it has plenty of character. The location is excellent, with rail and overground links to Canary Wharf, the City, Shoreditch and North and South. There’s a good offering of nightlife, with two rooftop bars on the top of carparks that open in the summer, as well as several bars, art galleries and restaurants that are worth a visit.
Jason Davis of Kinleigh Folkard & Hayward says prices on his patch have risen 30 per cent in the last year.
“We have seen a 70 per cent increase in first-time buyers compared to the same time last year, as we offer better value for money than Dulwich, Camberwell and Brixton,” he says.
Average value: £458,997
Value change (12 months): +3.97%Value change (5 years):+36.41%Frank’s Rooftop Bar, PeckhamNine Elms
Nine Elms is the final piece of the South Bank to undergo a refurbishment. At 195 hectares, it is far larger than Hyde Park and situated less than a mile upstream from the Houses of Parliament. Vast sites are now being transformed to form a brand new residential and business quarter right in the heart of London. The development has described by the Mayor as “the most important regeneration story in London” and the luxury flats will have their own private glass-bottomed pool, suspended between the two blocks.
Prices range between £600k for a small 1 bed to £14 million for a penthouse.
Average value: £708,921
Value change (12 months):-1.30%Value change (5 years): +42.85%The new development’s rooftop poolStreatham
Once seen as an area a little down-at-heel, Streatham has become popular recently as people are priced out of nearby areas Clapham and Balham. There are direct trains to both London Victoria and London Bridge, 10 minutes from Clapham Junction for a change to go almost anywhere in the UK. The average house price is around £463,000, and the area has excellent amenities with proximity to Tooting Bec park and Lido.
Average value: £463,672
Value change (12 months): -1.53%Value change (5 years): +38.69%Both the Streatham and Nine Elms postcodes have bucked the trend of the rest of England and London, where prices have risen on average. However, prices have grown more than average in both places over five years, showing the potential – buying now while the prices have dipped may well equal a good return in the future. Abbey Wood
This area may well be one of the worst areas in London; however, with the addition of Crossrail serving the area in 2018, it makes for an excellent investment. Currently it is the cheapest place in London to buy, with four-bedroom maisonettes on sale for under £200,000. Abbey Wood consists largely of a council estate, which was once the dystopian home of nihilistic Alex and his droogs in Stanley Kubrick’s controversial film from 1971, A Clockwork Orange. However, there is a good chance that once Crossrail opens the area up to investment, it will follow the lead of the Heygate Estate in Elephant & Castle and demolish it to make way for newbuild houseing. The potential for the area is huge – making it an ideal place to invest.
Average value: £266,713
Value change (12 months): +3.73%Value change (5 years):+33.59%The property value here is hundreds of thousands below London, rivalling that of the rest of the UK, showing clear potential.Wapping
In the 1980s, Wapping was a run-down and derelict inner city wasteland until the London Docklands Development Corporation began redeveloping the area. Properties have an Excellent position on the river, with several of the oldest pubs in London dotted along the front. There is a stellar view of Canary Wharf, and good connections on the overground to the City and Canary Wharf. Many of the properties are warehouse conversations with bundles of character.
Average value: £559,406
Value change (12 months): +4.75%Value change (5 years): +32.06Elephant and Castle
Arguably, Elephant and Castle is just a large roundabout, and market and the Ministry of Sound nightclub. However, a £3 billion redevelopment is underway, with the famous Heygate council estate being demolished making way for developer Lend Lease to replace the 1,200 homes contained within the brutalist blocks of the Heygate with almost 2,500 new apartments and shops.
Average value: £677,234
Value change (12 months): +2.30%Value change (5 years):+32.55%Mayfair
Arguably the most expensive area in London, house prices in this area are showing no signs of slowing and more and more properties being bought up by foreign investors. According to E J Harris, rents in Mayfair have shot up 7.5 per cent over the last 12 months.
“This year has been good for both. Average prices in prime central London increased 12.8 per cent, hitting £1.7 million. The rest of London has seen 10.7 per cent growth and a high of £514,516. Naomi Heaton, chief executive of LCP, prime London specialist
Average value: £1,694,802
Value change (12 months): +1.91%Value change (5 years):+40.36%Prices in Mayfair have shot up over five years in comparison to both the rest of London and the UK – however, this shows no sign of stopping.
British retail sales rose by 0.1 percent in July – below analysts expectations – according to official data released today.
July’s figures bring overall growth for the year up to 4.2 percent.
Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.4 percent on the month and 4.3 percent compared to a year ago, as expected.
The release of the figures caused sterling to fall against both the dollar and euro. Sterling fell half a percent to $1.5607 from $1.5662 before its release and against the euro, it fell 0.7 percent to 71.42 pence.
Inflation also edged up by just 0.1 percent in July, numbers showed on Tuesday. This week’s figures have eased the pressure the Bank of England to raise rates in the near future.
Australia’s national carrier Qantas has bounced back from recent losses, reporting a pre-tax profit of 975 million Australian dollars.
The results beat analysts expectations, and have been their best since the financial crisis. The group has also announced plans buy eight Boeing Dreamliners, and pay a $505 million dividend to shareholders.
The floundering airline has recently begun a “transformation program”, which has included cutting jobs and reducing capacity.
Chief Executive Alan Joyce said in a statement:
“We are halfway through the biggest and fastest transformation in our history.
“Without that transformation, we would not be reporting this strong profit, recommencing shareholder returns, or announcing our ultra-efficient Dreamliner fleet for Qantas International.
“We have reshaped our business for a strong, sustainable future – and because we moved quickly and made tough decisions early, we have strong foundations to build on.”
The Co-operative Bank has reported half-yearly losses of £204.2 million, from £77 million a year earlier.
The group have said they do not expect to make a profit until 2017. The bank escaped a fine last week for misleading investors as the regulator believed it needed the money to get the bank back on track.
In the first half of 2015, the bank set aside £49m to cover misconduct and legal charges and lost £38.2m on sales of assets needed to reduce the bank’s overall levels of debt. It also spent £33.1m on improving “systems and processes” and making the bank more efficient.
Chief Executive Niall Booker said in a statement:
“Addressing legacy issues will continue to dominate financial performance for some time and there is considerable work ahead towards a full recovery. The transformation of the bank remains challenging.
We won’t be profitable in 2015 and we won’t be profitable in 2016 either.”