Temple Bar: Lessons learnt from the first five years

Temple Bar Investment Trust
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Temple Bar: Lessons learnt from the first five years

by Ian Lance, Portfolio Manager

It is nearly five years since Nick Purves and I had the honour to be appointed as the new portfolio managers of the Temple Bar Investment Trust, and whilst we believe that the expression ‘pride comes before a fall’ is probably more true in asset management than almost any other walk of life, we think we can look back at what we have achieved with a sense of tempered satisfaction.

Some notable highlights since we were appointed at the end of October 2020:

  • A total share price return of 211%[1]
  • Number one in the UK Equity Income Sector per Citywire over 1, 2, 3 and 5 years[2]
  • Progressive dividend growth driven by both increasing revenues and the recent change of policy to supplement the dividend from capital
  • Discount closed over the period of our management to now trade at a modest premium
  • Market cap of £1bn reached for the first time on 23 September 2025[3]

Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risks in any market environment.

In this letter to our shareholders, therefore, we would like to look back at the last five years and highlight what we see as some of the most important lessons.

1. Value investing isn’t dead

2020 was the end of a very unusual decade in which growth investing as a style had produced better returns than value. The chart below demonstrates just how rare this is.  

Value outperforms growth

This prompted some commentators to claim that value investing was dead. To us, this seemed an odd conclusion to draw. If you define value investing as an investment approach that seeks to buy businesses for significantly less than they are worth, how could that ever be dead?

“All intelligent investing is value investing — acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.”
Charlie Munger

“We think the very term ‘value investing’ is redundant. What is ‘investing’ if it is not the act of seeking value at least sufficient to justify the amount paid?”
Warren Buffett

2. Active fund management can add value

In recent years, active fund managers have had a tough time in general. Those focused on US equities have found it especially hard, with the index being powered upwards by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. This was seized upon by cheerleaders of passive investing as evidence that active investing no longer worked. Whilst, on average, this is perhaps a fair assessment, one should always be wary of conclusions based around averages – as the six-foot tall man who drowned crossing a river that was five feet deep on average found out to his cost. Our experience, and that of Temple Bar’s shareholders, suggests that the disciplined application of a value investment strategy can still produce returns in excess of the wider market in the long run.

3. You can make good returns in UK equities

The UK equity market was written off for not having enough exposure to exciting technology stocks and, latterly, because of the anti-business, anti-growth economic policies of the current government. And yet, the 211% total return from Temple Bar over the period of our management has been significantly in excess of the 112% from the US stock market despite the fact the latter benefited from the returns of the Magnificent Seven stocks[4]. It is always worth remembering that a country’s economy is not the same as its stock market. Encouragingly for Temple Bar shareholders, the UK market continues to languish at one of the lowest valuations seen over the last fifty years whilst the US is, on some measures, more expensive than it has ever been.

4. It is the volatility that creates the opportunities…

Without a shadow of a doubt, the strong returns that Temple Bar shareholders have enjoyed over the last five years are a function of the start point. It is easy to forget the level of fear that existed at the start of the pandemic, but this is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that the share price of NatWest in 2020 was at the same level as in the depths of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, when the government nationalised its predecessor Royal Bank of Scotland[5]. It is this extreme level of fear that sometimes causes investors to make emotional, possibly irrational decisions, but provides opportunities for those able to tame their emotions, go contrary to the crowd and think long term.

“It is largely the fluctuations which throw up the bargains and the uncertainty due to the fluctuations which prevents other people from taking advantage of them.”
John Maynard Keynes

5. No company is so good that it can’t be turned into a bad investment by paying too high a price for it

In the years following the Global Financial Crisis, it is fair to say that there were some very high-quality companies trading at valuations which did not adequately reflect their strengths. Investors in our open-ended funds will know that we owned shares in Microsoft in 2010 because it was an unpopular business at that time and hence could be bought for eight times its earnings, which seemed to represent good value to us. Ten years later, however, many businesses like Microsoft had rerated to valuations which were so high that they virtually guaranteed poor returns.

“There’s no such thing as a good idea or bad idea in the investment world. It’s a good idea at a price, it’s a bad idea at a price. Whenever we consider an investment, we think just as much or more about what can go wrong as about what can go right, and we put the avoidance of losses on a high pedestal.”
Howard Marks

6. It is foolish to put a line through a sector and declare it ‘uninvestable’

One of the key contributors to the returns Temple Bar shareholders have enjoyed has been its investments in the UK, with perhaps NatWest being the standout performer having risen by 440% in the last five years[6]. One of the reasons returns have been so good is that the fundamentals have been very strong with earnings per share going from 25p in 2021 to an estimated 61p in 2025[7]. The key factor, however, was that the sector was utterly loathed five years ago with some investors declaring it ‘uninvestable at any valuation’. Thus, you were being offered the opportunity to buy businesses at very low valuations just at a time that their fundamentals were set to dramatically improve – almost the perfect investment opportunity.

7. We benefit from the increasing number of investors for whom valuation is irrelevant

We continue to believe that starting valuation is one of the best guides to long-term returns and that if you buy a stock at a significant discount to intrinsic value, not only do you have a margin of safety built in to your investment, but over time you should gain an excess return as the controversy declines and the share price moves towards intrinsic value. Interestingly, however, fewer and fewer investors seem to use valuation as part of their investment process. According to some estimates, passive funds now account for almost half of the equity market and obviously take no account of valuation (arguably they allocate more of their money to the larger, often more expensive stocks in the index)[8]. The growth of multi-strategy funds (or pod shops) has had a similar effect since these ‘investors’ are very short term and have no regard for valuation. We believe that, in the long term, this puts investors like us, for whom valuation is the cornerstone of a disciplined process, at an advantage, since it should lead to more securities being mispriced in the stock market.

8. Don’t be too quick to take a profit

Temple Bar’s shareholders would not have enjoyed such strong returns if we had been too quick to take a profit. As time has gone on, we are increasingly convinced that inactivity is a blessing and that you should run your winners. When a struggling business begins to improve, the effect will often last for years and investors are often repeatedly surprised at how positive operational gearing feeds through to profit growth. As a share price responds to an improving trend in profits, momentum investors who wouldn’t look at the company when it was available at, say, five times earnings may feel compelled to invest in it at a much higher valuation. Hence, the share price often goes far further than we may have initially thought. Both NatWest and Marks and Spencer, for example, have exceeded our initial expectations in recent years in terms of earnings growth and multiple expansion – we have allowed both positions to run higher in the portfolio, keen not to take a profit too early.

9. The investment trust structure is a good one especially for the retail investor

Temple Bar is nearly one hundred years old and there are those who argue that the investment trust structure is antiquated and no longer fit for purpose. Our experience of the last five years would suggest exactly the opposite. Whilst liquidity means that the largest wealth managers cannot move around the market using investment trusts as vehicles, for the smaller shareholder, they have significant advantages. Truly independent and strong Boards such as Temple Bar’s work in the best interests of their shareholders, as evidenced recently with the enhancement of the dividend using the capital account to reflect the shift by UK companies from paying dividends towards share buybacks. Finally, returns have been enhanced through the disciplined use of gearing.

10. Boards have the ability to add (or destroy) significant value particularly at inflection points

None of this would have happened if the board had capitulated to the wisdom of the crowds in 2020 and proposed to switch the style of the trust from value to growth. With the benefit of hindsight this seems an obvious decision, but the board did not have this benefit and moreover several other trusts switched style at exactly that time. Shareholders owe an enormous debt of gratitude to the current and former board members who took the brave decision to stick with value investing when many others were throwing in the towel.

Looking forward

In closing, we would note that the stock market is always intriguing, but the events of the last five years have perhaps made this period one of the most fascinating of our careers. We would like to thank the board for their support throughout this period and you, our shareholders, for putting your faith in us. What excites us both as we reflect on our five years as portfolio managers for Temple Bar is that we strongly believe that this journey is far from over. On many measures, today’s Temple Bar portfolio looks as attractive as it has done throughout our tenure, and for that reason, we look forward to the next five years… at least!

[1] Source: Bloomberg from 30 October 2020 to 30 September 2025 on a share price total return basis in UK sterling.

[2] Source: Citywire to 30 September 2025 on a NAV total return basis in UK sterling

[3] Source: Bloomberg as at 23 September 2025

[4] Source: Bloomberg from 30 October 2020 to 30 September 2025 on a total return basis in UK sterling

​​​​​[5] Source: Bloomberg

[6] Source: Bloomberg from 30 October 2020 to 30 September 2025 on a total return basis in UK sterling

[7] Source: Bloomberg as at 10 October 2025

[8] Source: Morningstar, March 2025

Past performance is not a guide to the future. The price of investments and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Forecasts and estimates are based upon subjective assumptions about circumstances and events that may not yet have taken place and may never do so.

No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risks in any market environment. Nothing in this document should be construed as advice and is therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell shares. Information contained in this document should not be viewed as indicative of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up.

This article is issued by RWC Asset Management LLP (Redwheel), in its capacity as the appointed portfolio manager to the Temple Bar Investment Trust Plc. Redwheel is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The statements and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author as of the date of publication.

Redwheel may act as investment manager or adviser, or otherwise provide services, to more than one product pursuing a similar investment strategy or focus to the product detailed in this document. Redwheel seeks to minimise any conflicts of interest, and endeavours to act at all times in accordance with its legal and regulatory obligations as well as its own policies and codes of conduct.

This document is directed only at professional, institutional, wholesale or qualified investors. The services provided by Redwheel are available only to such persons. It is not intended for distribution to and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a retail or individual investor in any jurisdiction or for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

The information contained herein does not constitute: (i) a binding legal agreement; (ii) legal, regulatory, tax, accounting or other advice; (iii) an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell shares in any fund, security, commodity, financial instrument or derivative linked to, or otherwise included in a portfolio managed or advised by Redwheel; or (iv) an offer to enter into any other transaction whatsoever (each a Transaction). No representations and/or warranties are made that the information contained herein is either up to date and/or accurate and is not intended to be used or relied upon by any counterparty, investor or any other third party. Redwheel bears no responsibility for your investment research and/or investment decisions and you should consult your own lawyer, accountant, tax adviser or other professional adviser before entering into any Transaction.

FTSE 100 falls with global equities as US earnings season gets underway

UK Investor Magazine
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FTSE 100 falls with global equities as US earnings season gets underway

The FTSE 100 was lower on Tuesday as tariff concerns rumbled on after US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China ‘wants to drag everybody else down’, suggesting the relationship wasn’t as rosy as Trump’s social media posts over the weekend would lead us to believe.

London’s leading index was 0.3% lower at the time of writing.

“UK stocks opened lower this morning, tracking declines across Europe as trade tensions creep back into focus,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown

“After a stretch of relative calm, headline risk is making conditions jumpy again and markets are back in the web of reacting to social media posts. But with earnings season kicking off, both at home and across the pond, there are more traditional catalysts on the horizon.”

US earnings season kicks off today with banks releasing earnings, providing investors with insight into how companies are faring in the current climate.

Earnings from the first firms to report were encouraging. Goldman Sachs fell in the US premarket despite earnings coming in ahead of estimates, while JP Morgan was flat as profits rose on higher trading activity. Citigroup also beat estimates and rose in the premarket.

BP was the headline FTSE 100 earnings story on Tuesday, with shares falling 2.4% after the group revealed slow oil trading activity.

“BP’s trading arm has become a thorn in its side. Having warned in April of weak gas trading, the same problem has now been reported with its oil trading arm,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The company might argue that fluctuations with the trading business are par the course, and that its key focus is production. Yet the trading arm is far from insignificant as it can provide a nice sweetener to group earnings.

“Volatile energy prices are generally good for trading, and we’ve certainly seen fluctuations in oil and gas prices over the past year. Questions will now be asked of BP as to why the trading arm isn’t riding high.”

Easyjet was the top riser amid reports shipping firm MSC was eyeing the airline for either a full takeover or significant investment.

Miners were the biggest drag on the FTSE 100 with Anglo American, and Antofagasta and Glencore among the top fallers.

Bellway shares jump on strong completion growth and share buyback

UK Investor Magazine
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Bellway shares jump on strong completion growth and share buyback

Bellway has delivered surprisingly strong full-year results for the period ending 31 July 2025, with total housing completions rising 14.3% to 8,749 homes at an average selling price of £316,412.

The company’s underlying operating profit increased 27.5% to £303.5m, achieving an operating margin of 10.9%, up from 10.0% in the prior year.

Underlying profit before taxation grew 27.9% to £289.1m.

Bellway shares rose by more than 5% after the housebuilder released results that will please investors concerned about the state of the UK property market. They are also materially better than some of their peers have released recently.

Encouragingly, private reservation rates improved to 0.57 per outlet per week, representing an 11.8% increase year-on-year, though momentum softened in the final quarter following solid spring demand.

The company’s sales performance showed marked improvement in the second half, with the private reservation rate reaching 0.62 compared to 0.51 in the first half.

Setting the group up for the eventual pick up in the housing market, Bellway maintained a decent land bank totaling 95,704 plots at year-end, marginally up from 95,292 plots in 2024.

Perhaps the biggest positive for investors is Bellway’s decision to reward shareholders with a share buyback.

“Bellway’s new capital allocation policy had been well flagged by management, but investors are warming to it all the same, as the housebuilder both increases its annual dividend and launches a £150 million share buyback scheme for the coming year,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. 

“A strong balance sheet supports this largesse, whereby the buyback and forecast dividends for the year to July 2026 equate to nearly 8% of the company’s stock market capitalisation, and increased profits would help, too.”

Analysts see the share buyback as a potential foundation for the share price to recover, despite the company, like all housebuilders, noting stuttering activity in recent months.

“While Bellway has seen a slow start to the year, its share buyback and improved cashflow point towards underlying strength in the business and a confidence in the months to come. The shares managed to find a short-term low in September, and these results seem to provide the groundwork for a further recovery in the price.” 

AIM movers: Another upgrade for Gear4Music and Eco Buildings new Sudan subsidiary

Andrew Hore
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AIM movers: Another upgrade for Gear4Music and Eco Buildings new Sudan subsidiary

Eco Buildings Group (LON: ECOB) has set up a new subsidiary with Socotra Real Estate Development and Investment Company to offer modular housing in Sudan. The Khartoum-based partner will invest €5m to fund two production lines and receive 50% of any net profit. The share price jumped 41.5% to 7.5p.

Marechale Capital (LON: MAC) has raised £202,500 at 1.5p/share. Experienced City investment banker Nick Wells invested £50,000 giving him a 2.8% stake. He is expected to bring potential deals to the company. The cash will be used for investment and co-investment opportunities. The share price increased 12.9% to 1.75p.

Pulsar Helium Inc (LON: PLSR) has mobilised a drill rig at the Topaz project in Minnesota. This will be part of a programme to confirm the scale of helium potential that will move commercial development closer. Up to ten wells will be drilled with the first starting this week. The share price rose 9.52% to 46p.

Another positive trading statement from music instruments retailer Gear4Music (LON: G4M) has led to a further forecast upgrade. Revenues grew 31% to £49.6m in the six months to September 2025. EBITDA expectations have been raised from £12m to £13.7m. Market conditions are improving and marketing has been stepped up. There has also been investment in improving availability of products. The share price is 10.3% to 311p.

Future Metals NV (LON: FME) shares have rebounded 6.78% to 1.575p ahead of leaving AIM on 5 November and concentrating on the ASX listing. Depositary Interest holders will have an opportunity to become registered shareholders.

Brazilian gold miner Serabi Gold (LON: SRB) achieved record quarterly production of 12,090 ounces of gold at Coringa and the Palito Complex in the third quarter of 2025. In the previous quarter production was 10.532 ounces. Full year product is expected to be between 44,000-47,000 ounces of gold. Net cash is $33m. The share price improved 6.59% to 275p.

Online womenswear retailer Sosandar (LON: SOS) grew interim revenues by 15% to £18.7m, despite disruption from Marks & Spencer’s cyber incident, and net cash improved from £7.3m to £7.7m at the end of September 2025. That was despite an increased loss of £1.1m, up from £700,000. A full year pre-tax profit of £400,000 is forecast. Initial homeware sales through NEXT have been good. The share price recovered 4.76% to 5.5p.

FALLERS

MyHealthChecked (LON: MHC) is selling its loss-making trading subsidiary Concepta Diagnostics to Boots UK for £2.375m. The company will become a shell with £5.7m of cash after the costs of the disposal, including an exit bonus to chief executive Penelope McCormick who is leaving with the subsidiary. The share price fell by one-quarter to 7.5p.

SpaceandPeople (LON: SAL) chief executive Nancy Cullen sold 27,500 shares at an average price of 244p/share. That leaves her with 3.52%. The share price declined 12.2% to 215p.

Synthetic binders developer Aptamer (LON: APTA) has increased full year revenues by two-fifths to £1.2m and there is already visibility of £1m in revenues in the year to June 2026. The potential pipeline is worth £3.4m. The June 2025 cash of £1.06m has subsequently been supplemented by a £1.8m fundraising and at the end of July cash was £2.7m. The share price dipped 11.6% to 0.875p, but it is still 136% higher this year.

UK urban mining growth strategy and the AI infrastructure supply chain with Majestic Corporation

UK Investor Magazine
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UK urban mining growth strategy and the AI infrastructure supply chain with Majestic Corporation

The UK Investor Magazine was delighted to welcome Krystal Lai, Head of Communications at Majestic Corporation, back to the podcast to discuss the Urban Miner’s recent half-year report and plans for growth through 2025 and 2026.

We discuss revenue fluctuations, margin expansions, and how the firm is dealing with trade tensions. The conversation addresses the tariff headwinds that have challenged the industry and examines whether stabilisation is finally on the horizon.

Majestic has boldly reiterated its ambitious target: 100,000 tonnes of processing capacity by 2030. How will they get there? We discuss the Wrexham expansion and intensified UK sales efforts that are paving the way. The UK market has clearly captured Majestic’s attention, and we explore exactly what makes it so attractive.

There’s also an exciting dimension to the company’s growth strategy. Majestic is increasingly focused on AI infrastructure supply chain, positioning itself to benefit from the AI boom. What does this mean for future revenues? Krystal shares Majestic’s perspective on this rapidly evolving opportunity and reveal what investors should be watching for during the remainder of 2025.

THG shares rise on strongest quarterly growth in nearly four years

UK Investor Magazine
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THG shares rise on strongest quarterly growth in nearly four years

THG has delivered its strongest quarterly sales performance since 2021, with third-quarter revenue rising 6.3% as both its beauty and nutrition divisions returned to growth.

Shares in the group rose by more than 5% in early trading on Tuesday as investors cheered signs of a revival.

When THG released interim results in September, CEO Matthew Moulding said he was “really pleased at how THG has gained momentum throughout the first half and into Q3”. And this momentum was confirmed today.

The Manchester-based company reported Q3 2025 revenue of £405.2 million, marking a welcome turnaround that brought the group back into positive year-to-date territory.

THG Nutrition was the standout performer, posting 10.0% year-on-year growth to reach £147.0 million in Q3 – its highest growth rate in over two years. The division has been buoyed by selective pricing strategies and rapid expansion in social commerce and marketplace channels, which surged more than 91% year-on-year.

Customer loyalty improved, with subscriptions jumping 50% compared to the first half of 2025. The Myprotein brand continued its global retail expansion, launching across 2,500 CVS stores in the US and securing partnerships, including a strategic tie-up with Everlast Gyms to open approximately 60 in-gym Myprotein Kitchens across the UK and Ireland.

THG Beauty recorded 4.2% growth in Q3 to £258.2 million – its strongest performance since early 2024. The division is on track for record advent calendar sales this year, whilst UK retail showed particular strength with Lookfantastic achieving double-digit revenue growth. Advent calendar sales have traditionally been one of the biggest drivers of growth.

US retail performance is improving, driven by luxury skincare and devices, with subscription revenue up 22% year-on-year, supporting enhanced customer lifetime value.

The board maintained its full-year guidance, with Q3’s 6.3% growth positioning the group favourably against its H2 targets of 3.9% to 5.9%. THG noted it is entering its most profitable and cash-generative period.

“I am pleased to report a solid Q3 performance, with a return to growth across both THG Beauty and THG Nutrition,” said Matthew Moulding, CEO of THG.

“In THG Beauty, our focus on commercial discipline and elevating the brand proposition has driven a return to revenue growth, supported by a strong advent launch.

“Within THG Nutrition, we remain on track with our focus on expanding Myprotein’s D2C market share, alongside accelerating our global offline presence through retail and brand partnerships. A number of exciting new partnerships are set to be announced soon, helping us to further build on this year’s positive momentum.

“Our progress is a direct result of the strategic initiatives and operational change we have implemented, and we are well positioned for the key trading period ahead.”

Empire Metals unveils massive Titanium discovery, shares surge

UK Investor Magazine
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Empire Metals unveils massive Titanium discovery, shares surge

Empire Metals Limited has confirmed a massive titanium deposit at its Pitfield Project in Western Australia, potentially delivering a game-changing discovery for the global titanium market.

The AIM-quoted exploration company has just released a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate that confirms Pitfield as one of the largest and highest-grade titanium resources ever reported globally.

The project is estimated to hold 2.2 billion tonnes grading 5.1% TiO2, containing a massive 113 million tonnes of titanium dioxide.

Empire Metals shares jumped over 17% on the news on Tuesday.

What makes this discovery particularly impressive is its sheer scale and quality. The resource spans across two main deposits—Thomas and Cosgrove—covering 39 square kilometres and 20 square kilometres, respectively.

Yet these represent less than 20% of the known mineralised surface area, suggesting enormous potential for future expansion.

The weathered zone alone contains 1.26 billion tonnes grading 5.2% TiO2, translating to 65.6 million tonnes of contained titanium dioxide. This naturally weathered material sits at surface level, eliminating the need for complex mining operations.

Pitfield’s location provides significant logistical advantages. The project benefits from existing rail links to deep-water ports, offering direct shipping access to major markets including Asia, the USA, Europe, and Saudi Arabia.

Investors will be delighted with the latest update, which further confirms the strength of the firm’s asset base.

Empire has already demonstrated the commercial viability of its discovery, with conventional processing successfully producing high-purity titanium dioxide grading 99.25% with negligible impurities. This quality level makes it suitable for both titanium sponge metal production and high-grade pigment applications.

“Pitfield is truly one of the natural geological wonders of the world: a district scale, giant titanium rich ore deposit which has remained hidden in plain sight until recently discovered by Empire,” said Shaun Bunn, Managing Director of Empire.

“Credit goes to our talented exploration and technical team who have delivered one of the world’s largest titanium MRE, a metallurgical flowsheet and a saleable product, all within a remarkable short period of 30 months from our first drill hole.

“The incredible success achieved to date has only spurred our team’s endeavours to untap the true potential of this phenomenal project and we remain focused on completing our processing optimisation testwork and moving rapidly into continuous piloting early next year. We have already commenced engineering, environmental and marketing studies which combined, will help confirm the commercial viability of Pitfield and form the basis for a Final Investment Decision.”

Empire Metals shares are over 800% higher so far in 2025.

Vietnam 2.0 – Emerging from the Frontier

UK Investor Magazine
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Vietnam 2.0 – Emerging from the Frontier

Vietnam is at a pivotal moment in its economic transformation, advancing rapidly across sectors—from its ‘Made in Vietnam’ industrial strategy to developments in capital markets.

VietNam Holding Limited (VNH), a London-listed fund investing in Vietnamese equities, will host a live online presentation led by fund manager Dynam Capital. Open to all, the session will explore Vietnam’s economic progress, VNH’s strategy, investment process, ESG approach, performance, and 2026 outlook.

VNH focuses on high-growth Vietnamese companies in domestic consumption, industrialisation, and urbanisation. Established in 2006 as a closed-end fund on the LSE, VNH offers investors access to one of the world’s most promising frontier markets. It has delivered the highest five-year returns among UK-listed Vietnam funds and maintains the lowest discount to NAV, making it a compelling opportunity for investors seeking exposure to Vietnam’s dynamic growth.

FTSE 100 struggles for direction amid tariff tension

UK Investor Magazine
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FTSE 100 struggles for direction amid tariff tension

The FTSE 100 joined the global equity market rally in very early trade on Monday, but the gains faded as investors looked to the start of earnings season and the return of trade-tariff concerns.

London’s leading index was fighting to keep its head above water at the time of writing as early gains evaporated.

Investors cheered a social media post by Trump over the weekend that suggested threats of 100% tariffs on China were just another negotiating tactic. However, concerns set back in as the session progressed and traders banked short-term gains.

“Just as it looked as if the US and China were making baby steps to repair their relationship, Donald Trump throws a spanner in the works,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“A new threat of high tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the US spooked investors in the East, with Asian markets showing a sea of red, following a similarly bad session for Wall Street last Friday.”

Although the FTSE 100 struggled to stay positive on the session, there were bumper gains for precious metals miner Fresnillo and Endeavour as gold and silver hit all-time highs.

“This new-found nervousness pushed investors back into gold, putting the shine back on the precious metal and reigniting the rally in gold miners,” Mould said.

“Fresnillo and Endeavour Mining topped the FTSE 100’s list of risers, representing a rapid U-turn from last week’s bout of profit taking.”

Fresnillion soared 7% as Endeavour rose 6%.

The S&P 500 cash market was set to open over 1% as the TACO trade looked to play out once more with traders betting 100% tariffs on China will never materialise.

Analysts noted that while attention was on Trump’s tariffs on Monday, the imminent catalyst of earnings season is likely to set the market narrative this week.

“With volatility back in the market, the initial flurry of third quarter earnings will be watched more closely than ever,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“First up, it’s the US banks, with Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JP morgan and Wells Fargo all reporting tomorrow. A resilient economy and surge in investment banking activities bodes well, but valuations are riding high. Given the nervy backdrop, markets are likely to be sensitive to surprises in either direction.”

In London, UK banks were headline news again on Monday as Lloyds confirmed it would set aside another £800m to address the motor finance scandal. Lloyds shares rose 1% suggesting this was a win in investors’ eyes.

“A rising share price represents two things: one, some clarity on Lloyds’ potential exposure; and two, hope that Lloyds might successfully get the regulator to tweak its proposal in its favour,” Russ Mould said.

Babcock was the top faller with a 2% loss as the geopolitical outlook improved significantly with the return of hostages from Gaza and Trump’s declaration that the war is now over.

BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce were also weaker.

AIM movers: Redmoor drilling success for Strategic Minerals and Helium One Global terminates investment agreement

Andrew Hore
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AIM movers: Redmoor drilling success for Strategic Minerals and Helium One Global terminates investment agreement

Positive drilling results for the Redmoor tungsten tin copper project have pushed up the share price of Strategic Minerals (LON: SML) by 45.3% to 0.69p. The drilling results confirm multiple zones of high-grade tungsten mineralisation at the project in Cornwall. These results are from one borehole. This suggests that Redmoor could be the highest-grade undeveloped tungsten deposit. There are also positive results for copper. The tin assays are still being reviewed. Drilling continues. Zeus has a 1.9p/share fair value for Strategic Minerals.

Kefi Gold and Copper (LON: KEFI) expects the signing of the agreement for $240m of debt capital for the Tulu Kapi gold project this week. Project equity capital funding is advancing. The share price increased 22.6% to 1.4775p.

Helium One Global (LON: HE1) is terminating the £10m investment agreement arranged by Marex Financial. A further £3.5m of the investment will be converted at 0.218p/share, taking the total converted to £7.875m. The rest of the investment will be repaid plus a 12% termination payment, making the total cash outflow £2.38m. The Galactica helium joint venture project in Colorado in the US is progressing, and first helium and CO2 production should be in December with full capacity reached during the first half of 2026. The share price improved 13.3% to 0.425p.

Ampeak Energy (LON: AMP) and joint venture partner Econergy International have received planning permission from Newport City Council for the Afon Wysg 2 250MW battery storage project at the Uskmouth Sustainable Energy Park. This is the third battery project at the site. Financial close for the project is expected in 2027. The Ampeak Energy share price is 8.51% higher at 2.55p.

Data analysis software provider Cirata (LON: CRTA) has gained its largest ever contract. It is a $3.1m, three-year data integration software contract with a US insurer. There was a previous one yea product agreement. There will be a trading update on 16 October. The share price rose 11.2% to 20.55p.

FALLERS

Helix Exploration (LON: HEX) is ready to start production at the Rudyard helium project in Montana and it could commence in November after the final components arrive. There are discussions about offtake agreements. The share price fell 6.86% to 24p.

Premier African Minerals (LON: PREM) is consolidating ten shares into one new share when trading begins on Tuesday. The pre-consolidation share price dipped 5% to 0.019p.

Delays in securing contracts have slowed progress at location data management software provider 1Spatial (LON: SPA), but recurring revenues continue to grow. Interim revenues were 9% higher with recurring revenues rising by one-fifth to 61% of total revenues. SaaS revenues from traffic management planning software 1Streetworks quadrupled and that was before the latest UK Power Networks contract gain worth £1m over 15 months. Cash generation is improving and getting nearer to covering capitalised development costs. Net debt is £2.5m. Australia was the only laggard, and this may possibly be sold to help finance further product development and growth in the core markets. Cavendish forecasts flat full year pre-tax profit of £1.4m. The share price declined 2.75% to 53p.

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