BP profits jump on higher oil prices, continues green hydrogen development

BP shares slipped on Tuesday after the oil major said third quarter profits benefited from higher oil and gas prices than in the same period last year. However, profits were slightly weaker than the second quarter this year.

BP’s Non-GAAP $2.59 EPS beat analyst estimates by 64 cents as net debt fell and the oil giant announced a $2.5 billion buyback. 

BP has demonstrated the war in Ukraine is still the root of exceptional profits with higher oil prices supporting revenues.

Although profit is around three times higher than the same period last year, BP’s underlying replacement cost profit has slipped from $8.5bn in the second quarter to $8.1bn in the third quarter. 

Shares in BP were around 1% lower at the time of writing, trading at 474p.

“This quarter’s results reflect us continuing to perform while transforming. We remain focused on helping to solve the energy trilemma – secure, affordable and lower carbon energy,” said Bernard Looney, BP Chief executive officer.

“We are providing the oil and gas the world needs today – while at the same time – investing to accelerate the energy transition. Our agreement on Archaea Energy is the most recent step in our strategic transformation of bp.”

Cleaner Energy Investment

BP’s revenue will be earned predominantly in oil for the foreseeable future, however the company has continued to make significant investments in cleaner forms of fuel.

BP is finalising a US biogas deal and is divesting upstream businesses.

A drive into low carbon energy is well underway with the rollout of EV charging points and the completion of an acquisition of a green hydrogen plant in Australia.

Green hydrogen is seen as the most sustainable form of hydrogen as the process is powered by renewable energy and produces nearly zero carbon.

BP have submitted a bid to government for the HyGreen Teesside green hydrogen plant which will be one of the UK’s largest green hydrogen facilities and is targeting production of an initial 80 megawatts (MW) of hydrogen by 2025.

UK house prices may only see minor downside according to Zoopla

The doomed mini-budget raised fears of a UK housing market crash as mortgage rates soared and many products were removed from the market.

This proved to be knee-jerk reaction and mortgage rates have since fallen and interest in UK housing has not completely dried up.

“Buyers have fled the horrors of the housing market in their droves since the mini-budget, thanks to alarming interest rates and predictions that property prices are set to plunge. But this doesn’t necessarily mean sellers are safe to sell up and sit it out in the hope of a cut price deal next year either,” said Sarah Coles, senior personal finance analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Housing transactions were down sharply in September year-on-year, but this was largely down to a spike in activity in September 2021 due to the end of Stamp Duty holidays.

Zoopla housing prediction

The dynamics of the current housing market saw both Lloyds and NatWest forecast declines in UK housing prices for 2023 as part of their quarterly earnings reports last week.

Zoopla joined them today in forecasting downside in UK average house prices – but only a minor 4-5% correction. Zoopla argued mortgage rates were already starting to fall, meaning the drop in housing prices may not be as drastic as first thought.

However, this carried a warning a return to 6% mortgages would once more send waves through the housing market.

“Sustained 6% mortgage rates would lead to double digit price falls. If mortgage rates fall back in the next quarter, the outlook for 2023 will be very different,” said Richard Donnell, Research Director at Zoopla.

FTSE 100 surges above 7,100 as IAG takes off

The FTSE 100 surged on Monday in a broad based rally led by IAG and the UK banks as markets braced for a busy week of central bank action.

International Consolidated Airlines was the FTSE 100’s top riser on reports they could be eyeing easyJet as a takeover target. IAG shares were up over 5% at the time of writing.

“Reports that EasyJet could be a takeover target for International Consolidated Airlines make perfect sense,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The pandemic has created concerns about the future of business travel, with companies globally realising they don’t need to hold so many meetings in different locations. It’s far easier, cheaper and more environmentally friendly to hold many conversations over Teams or Zoom than get on a plane.”

The Times reported IAG could target easyJet and Portuguese TAP Air Portugal to add to their portfolio of airlines which includes Iberia and British Airways.

UK Bank Windfall Tax

A week after UK banks reported Q3 earnings, Natwest and Lloyds were back under the microscope as investors weighed the potential of a surcharge on UK banks in the upcoming Autumn Statement.

Speculation had grown Sunak and Hunt would again raid banking profits, but reports over the weekend suggested the windfall tax could be less than previously thought.

NatWest and Lloyds were up 4.6% and 2% respectively with NatWest bouncing back from a terrible session on Friday.

Centrica upgrades

Centrica was among the best performers after the utilities company received favourable upgrades from analysts at Jefferies, Barclays and Citigroup.

Barclays analysts were the most optimistic on Centrica share price with a price target of 144p. Centrica shares were 5$% higher at 76p at the time of writing.

Central Banks

Central banks are back in focus this week with markets preparing for the Federal Reserve set to meet on Wednesday and the Bank of England issuing there latest interest decision on Thursday.

Economists are predicting the Bank of England will hike rates 75 bps to 3%.

AIM movers: TP Group takeover and Rockhopper Exploration arbitration award challenged

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Science Group (LON: SAG) is buying the shares it does not own in TP Group (LON: TPG) for 2.25p a share in cash. That values TP Group at £17.5m. Science Group already owns 28% of the company and the independent directors of TP Group have agreed to the bid. The share price jumped 183.9% to 2.2p.

Sports promotions data company 4GLOBAL (LON: 4GBL) has won a £4m contract lasting five years. This is for a sports infrastructure project for a city in the Middle East. The share price jumped 19.1% to 68.5p. The December placing price was 91p.

Renalytix (LON: RENX) continued its recent share price recovery following its full year results. The kidney diagnostics company generated revenues of $3m in the year to June 2022 and they are expected to more than treble this year, although the loss will continue and there could be net debt of $9.5m by the end of June 2023.  Insurance coverage is increasing in the US and revenues should continue rise rapidly. The share price recovered 13.3% to 85p.

Blue Star Capital (LON: BLU) investee company Dynasty Gaming & Media has signed a distribution agreement with Asian telecoms company Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison, which has 100 million subscribers in Indonesia. This pushed up the share price by 17.2% to 0.1875p. Dynasty will deliver new games developed by Pioneer Media Inc (PNER), which is quoted on the Aquis Stock Exchange.

Immunotherapies developer Scancell (LON: SCLP) has dosed the first patient in the multicentre phase 1 Modi-1 clinical trial (ModiFY). The plan is to recruit up to 125 patients in the UK. There have been no safety concerns in previous trials and further data is expected before the end of the year. The share price rose 10.8% to 17.5p.

Italy is seeking to annul the €190m arbitration award to Rockhopper Exploration (LON: RKH) due to a breach of the Energy Charter Treaty. The company had a third-party funding agreement for the litigation, but that ended in August. There is an offer to fund the costs of the latest move by Italy, which could take up to two years. The shares declined by 24.6% to 9.76p.

Ncondezi Energy (LON: NCCL) requires more funding by the end of November and the share price fell 24.5% to 1p. It may be able to draw down £150,000 from its convertible loan facility. The 300MW solar project is technically viable.

Rising costs have meant that paper manufacturer James Cropper (LON: CRPR) with energy costs having a significant effect on paper making. The technical fibres business is not growing as fast as anticipated. Price rises are offsetting some of the cost increases. The full year pre-tax profit estimate has been cut from £5.4m to £2m, after breaking even in the first half to 24 September 2022. The share price fell 14.6% to 850p.

Shares in Lansdowne Oil & Gas (LON: LOGP) slumped 10% to 0.45p after the Irish government said that the Barryroe joint venture, where Lansdowne is a party, had not complied with the financial capability assessment. Further financial information is required by 21 November. The joint venture partners do not want to raise additional funds until a licence has been granted for the Barryroe field.

Lok’nStore beats expectations

Price rises and additional space helped self-storage sites operator Lok’nStore (LON: LOK) to beat expectations in the year to July 2022. NAV of 972p a share was much higher than expected.
There are currently 40 sites operating, including 16 managed stores. Self-storage is a market where larger companies are taking a greater share and there is still plenty of scope for growth.
In the year to July 2022, revenues increased from £21.9m to £26.9m, while underlying pre-tax profit jumped from £9.1m to £13.1m. There were trebled non-recurring managed store fees of £1.5m during the period, but that pro...

Former Sainsbury’s Director joins Tekcapital’s MicroSalt

Judith Batchelar OBE has joined the MicroSalt board as the food technology company targets rapid expansion in the low-sodium market with their patented MicroSalt technology.

MicroSalt contains 50% less sodium than normal table salt and is at the forefront of the fight against the health problems associated with over consumption of salt such as cardiovascular diseases.

Judith Batchelar OBE has broad exposure in the food industry with prior senior roles at Sainsbury’s and M&S. Judith is currently the Deputy Chair of the U.K. Environment Agency and sit on the board of the UK Research and Innovation’s Natural Environment Research Council.

Judith’s appointment will bring valuable experience across the food industry and in delivering a positive impact on peoples lives.

Commenting on her appointment Judith Batchelar said, “I’m really excited to join the board of MicroSalt, I am passionate about their mission to help combat cardiovascular disease by reducing sodium levels in the foods we eat, and I know we can make a difference. “ 

MicroSalt expansion

Judith Batchelar’s is the latest move by MicroSalt in the delivery of their expansion plans that recently saw the introduction of new MicroSalt products and a partnership with a food supplier.

“We are very excited to have Judith join our team. Her deep industry experience in improving the nutritional profile of foods will be enormously helpful with our go-to-market efforts in the U.K.,” said Rick Guiney, CEO of MicroSalt®.

Is the Lloyds share price at risk of a government windfall tax?

Lloyds joined other FTSE 100 banks last week in updating investors on their performance in the third quarter. Lloyds shares drifted after they said Q3 revenue was higher due to rising interest rates, but warned they had set aside £700m in provisions for potential bad debts.

With a steady stream of forecasts on the UK housing market suggesting we could see house prices fall next year, Lloyds has faced risk aversion from investors who want to reduce exposure to UK mortgages. Lloyds is the UK’s largest mortgage provider.

The Lloyds share price was trading up 2% at 42p at the time of writing and bouncing back from lows around 40p last week.

The bounce today was a result of reports over the weekend that UK ministers were preparing to stand down on their push to implement a windfall tax on UK banks.

There had been calls for another 8% windfall tax on banks by MPs following the release of strong than expected HSBC profits last week.

However, at a time the outlook for the UK economy becomes cloudier, an additional tax on the banks seems unfair given the stringent steps they have taken to protect themselves during the pandemic. There is also a risk an additional tax makes UK banks less attractive to investors.

‘Banks based in the UK already pay a considerable amount of tax, more than any other sector and more than any of our peers in other locations around the world,’ said NatWest Chief Executive Alison Rose.

The concerns from banking executives hit a cord with the UK government and over the weekend there has been mixed reports on whether Hunt and Sunak will indeed push forward with an 8% surcharge that would see banks taxed 33% on profits.

Sunak had previously indicated the 8% surcharge would be reduced to 3%.

The uncertainty around the banking windfall tax will persist until the actual announcement in the Autumn Statement 17th November.

Lloyds shares will react to any headlines relating to the bank surcharge in the meantime, and remains at risk until the announcement is made.

SRT Marine Systems – looking for an early 26% upward price move

Solving the global problem of maritime domain awareness is what this company is all about and in this current year it is due to swing massively into profit.

This group’s target market is the world’s 26m vessels, millions of buoys and tens of thousands of ports dispersed across millions of km of coastline and over 370m square kilometres of seas, lakes and inland waterways.

Since 1987, customers from around the world have relied upon this company to provide them with solutions for their maritime monitoring, management and surveillance objectives.

Global leader in its sector

Based at Midsomer Norton near Bath and capitalised at just £65m, SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT) is the global leader in Automatic Identification Systems based maritime domain awareness (MDA) technologies, products and systems.

It provides high performance proven turn-key MDA solutions for applications for vessels, ports, environment agencies, fisheries, and coast guards that deliver enhanced monitoring, surveillance, safety and security.

The group’s multi-billion-dollar global market takes in some 8m commercial and 18m leisure boats.

There are requirements for continued and improving security, safety, sustainability, environmental protection, economic and commercial safeguards.

Also, there are literally millions of kilometres of exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that have to be protected.

Two main operational divisions

The group has two main sides – digital automatic identification system (AIS) transceivers and integrated marine domain awareness (MDA) systems.

The three main operating subsidiaries are: 

SRT Marine Technology, which develops and provides customised core technology and OEM product and display solutions to marine electronics brand owners wanting their own range of high-quality customised AIS products; 

SRT Marine System Solutions, which provides complete turn-key maritime tracking, safety and security system solutions to strategic locally based system integrators; and

EM-Trak Marine Electronics, which provides a range of ‘em-trak’ branded AIS transceivers to a global dealer network addressing price conscious commercial and leisure boat owners.

Group products

The group’s products range from high performance AIS transceivers to fully integrated national maritime surveillance systems which integrate extensive networks of sensors such as AIS, Radar, CCTV, and communications with intelligent command and control, display and data analytics.

Group customers

The company’s customers include: Leading system integrators; Marine electronics companies requiring white label AIS technology and product solutions; Individual vessel operators; Port owners and operators; and National authorities such as national defence agencies, fishery ministries, navies and coast guards who require sophisticated maritime surveillance and monitoring systems.

Recent Trading Update

An initial trading update for the six months trading period ended 30th September 2022, released at the beginning of October showed a significant improvement in its business.

During the first half revenues were £18.8m – a 300% increase on the same period last year (£4.7m), generating an expected profit before tax to be not less than £1.5m. 

Despite continuing production constraints, the group’s transceivers business revenue grew by approximately 20% to £5.2m (£4.2m). While the systems business delivered multiple operational and several revenue milestones, generating some £13.6m (£0.5m) of revenue.

When announcing the interim Trading Update, CEO Simon Tucker stated that: 

“These results validate our earlier statements that both our business divisions have recovered and are now performing well, driven by a combination of good quality SRT products and fundamental long term market demand drivers. We look forward to the second half and providing further market updates with our continued progress.”

Interesting equity positions

There are some 180.7m shares in issue of which the group’s directors hold 9.83% of the equity.

Two private client broking companies have holdings – Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers hold 18.3m shares (10.13%) and AJ Bell have 5.6m shares (3.09%).

Five private investors hold another 35% of the equity in aggregate.

Analyst’s opinions – 100p Target Price

Lorne Daniel and Kimberley Carstens, at the company’s brokers finnCap, are very bullish about the company’s shares, fixing a Target Price of 100p against the current 35.75p.

They noted that in the past two years the pandemic slowed installation of existing Systems contracts and paused the processing of new deals, leaving the company to rely on just its £8m of Transceivers sales.

The analyst’s estimates for the current year to end March 2023 are for £56.6m (£8.2m) revenues, adjusted pre-tax profits of £6.8m (£6.4m loss), generating earnings of 3.8p (3.3p loss) per share.

Conclusion – ready for outlook estimates being upgraded

With the group ready to announce its interims results on Monday 14th November it is fair to expect some very favourable reaction.

The group’s shares were as high as 49p in early January this year, while they have since been as low as 23.6p.

Now trading at 35.75p, they are holding steady after the price rise in reaction to the favourable Trading Update at the start of the month.

On the basis of the finnCap estimates, it would appear that anticipation of achieving the current year’s estimates will be good enough to see the shares rise to trade up to 12 times price-to-earnings – which would be over 45p.

And that is without assuming that analysts will be upgrading their estimates for the coming 2023/4 and 2024/5 years after group guidance upon the interims being published.

Brokers finnCap are right, these shares are for buying.

New standard listing: Unicorn Mineral Resources seeks zinc

Unicorn Mineral Resources has exploration licences in two project areas in the Republic of Ireland. It is still early days in terms of exploration, but the licences in the Kilmallock area are reaching the point when drilling can commence, and the cash raised in the flotation will finance that.
The share price started the first day at 10.5p and ended it at 17.5p (15p/20p). There were ten trades on the first day and one on the following day. In total, early 4.5 million shares were traded in the two days.
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Guanajuato Silver builds production as it joins Aquis

Guanajuato Silver Company Ltd (GSVR) joined the Apex segment of the Aquis Stock Exchange on 25 October. The Mexico-focused silver miner was already quoted on the TSX Venture Exchange. The share price started at 27.5p and it has stayed at that level. There were 884 shares traded on the first day and there were four trades during the week.
Guanajuato Silver is targeting annualised production of 3.4 million ounces of silver-equivalent ounces by the end of 2022 and up to six million ounces by the end of 2023.
Guanajuato Silver recommenced mining at the El Cubo mine in August 2021. In the six month...