AIM movers: Serica Energy buys North Sea Assets and Touchstar warning

Andrew Hore
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AIM movers: Serica Energy buys North Sea Assets and Touchstar warning

Tavistock Investments (LON: TAVI) has updated investors on its litigation with Titan, who acquired Tavistock’s asset management business and funds branded ACUMEN. This was part of a 10-year strategic partnership. Tavistock says that there were many breaches of the agreement. A court hearing determined that Tavistock can add other counterclaims and awarded it interim costs of £250,000. The share price increased 19.7% to 4.25p.

Shares in Wishbone Gold (LON: WSBN) rebounded 13.8% to 62p following an interview with chairman and chief executive Richard Poulden on focusIR.

Sovereign Metals (LON: SVML) has signed a collaboration agreement with International Finance Corporation (IFC) to support development of the Kasiya rutile and graphite project. IFC will have rights to be primary lender and lead investor for Kasiya. The share price rose 8.8% to 27.2p.

Serica Energy (LON: SQZ) is buying North Sea assets from Spirit Energy for $74m with the effective date 1 January 2025. These are predominantly gas assets and production is 13.5mboe/day. Spirit Energy is retaining decommissioning liabilities with a cap of 115% of current estimates. Serica Energy chief executive Chris Cox previously held the same role at Spirit Energy, so he knows the assets. The acquisition will be earnings enhancing with potential upside from further drilling and development. The share price improved 3.26% to 167.7p.

FALLERS

Logistics technology provider Touchstar (LON: TST) will not meet expectations this year and it is expecting modest growth in 2026 because of continuing tough economic conditions. In 2025, revenues will be around £6.7m, compared with the forecast of £8m, and there will be a small pre-tax profit.  There will be exceptional costs of £1.45m for restructuring and software impairment. Cash will be £2m at the end of the year. The restructuring continues and acquisitions will be reviewed. The share price slumped 22.8% to 57.5p.

Geo Exploration (LON: GEO) has raised £1.25m at 0.18p/share. This will fund exploration at the Gorge gold project, advance drilling at the Juno gold project and finance farm-out activities for the PEL 94 oil licence in Namibia. In September, £1.1m was raised at 0.4p/share. The share price slipped 21.9% to 0.1875p.

Shares in Polarean Imaging (LON: POLX) declined 14.3% to 0.09p following shareholder voting in favour of leaving AIM on 23 December. JP Jenkins will provide a matched bargain facility.

Oriole Resources (LON: ORR) has published a preliminary economic assessment for 50%-owned Bibemi open pit gold project in Cameroon. Initial capital expenditure is $60.4m. The NPV8 is $12.8m based on a gold price of $3,200/ounce. Average all-in sustaining cost is $1,234/ounce. Total gold production of 72,000 ounces is estimated over seven years. The mine life can be extended. An exploitation licence could be granted in the first half of 2026. The share price is one-eighth lower at 0.28p.

Genomic diagnostics tests developer Oxford BioDynamics (LON: OBD) improved revenues from £600,000 to £1.1m in the year to September 2025. Marketing costs were refocused on direct selling to US physicians. Cash was £1.4m at the end of September 2025 with £7m goss subsequently added to the cash pile. Monthly sales of the EpiSwitch PSE prostate cancer test reached 250 by November. The target is 500 sales each month within 12 months. The share price dipped 8% to 0.23p.

Finsbury Growth & Income Trust: Backing Britain’s AI revolution

UK Investor Magazine
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6
Finsbury Growth & Income Trust: Backing Britain’s AI revolution

Fund manager Nick Train explains why UK-listed data businesses offer compelling growth opportunities as artificial intelligence transforms entire industries

After 25 years at the helm of Finsbury Growth and Income Investment Trust, Nick Train has orchestrated a portfolio transformation that now provides investors with balanced exposure to some of the UK’s leading adopters of artificial intelligence.

The veteran fund manager, who has followed UK markets since the early 1980s, has shifted the trust’s focus from traditional consumer brands towards data-driven businesses poised to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom.

Data and digital businesses now comprise just under 60% of the portfolio, a dramatic pivot from the consumer staples that dominated for the first two decades of this century. It’s a bold repositioning that reflects Train’s conviction that AI-powered companies represent the UK market’s best growth opportunities. And that many of these companies are significantly undervalued.

The concentrated approach

Train’s investment philosophy draws heavily from Warren Buffett’s playbook. “Running a concentrated portfolio increases your chances of delivering different performance,” Nick Train explained in a recent interview with UK Investor Magazine. “But there’s a critical caveat – you must concentrate on exceptional, substantive, durable businesses.”

Train and his team hunt for companies that offer insights or services customers simply cannot do without. The criteria are exacting: proprietary data, powerful network effects, and the ability to generate reliable cash flows whilst remaining capital-light.

“What’s so compelling about these data and platform businesses is that although they must keep investing in their software and technology, it doesn’t cost them much to grow,” Train notes. He points to Sage’s recent results, where earnings per share jumped 18% whilst headcount remained static. The company’s return on capital climbed from an already impressive 26% to 31%.

The AI catalyst

The shift towards data businesses accelerated as Train observed how artificial intelligence was transforming company growth trajectories. RELX provides the clearest example. Until 2020, the company’s revenues grew steadily at 4-5% annually. Since deploying large language models across its proprietary datasets, that growth rate has doubled to 8-9%.

“RELX has been able to overlay new tools on top of data that lawyers, insurance professionals, and scientific researchers simply can’t do their jobs without,” Train explains. “This makes their services even more valuable and stickier.”

The trust’s legal information division, LexisNexis, now reports 9% revenue growth – nearly triple its pre-2020 rate – by offering US legal practices tools that save hours of partners’ billing time.

Portfolio powerhouses

RELX stands as Train’s prime example of UK data excellence. Having climbed from the 68th largest FTSE 100 company in 2000 to ninth place today, Train has half-jokingly challenged CEO Erik Engstrom to compete with Rolls-Royce for the top spot. With the company’s risk division, which focuses on fraud detection and insurance data, now comprising over half the group’s value and growing faster than ever, it’s not entirely fanciful.

Experian represents a more recent addition, bringing exposure to the world’s largest credit bureau. With data on 1.4 billion individuals and 150 million companies globally, Experian possesses information unavailable to competitors or AI agents. Twenty of the top 25 US financial institutions rely on Experian’s Ascend tool for creditworthiness assessments. Train sees Experian as a textbook example of indispensable data services.

London Stock Exchange Group provides the trust with exposure to the world’s biggest vendor of real-time financial market prices, whilst Rightmove demonstrates powerful network effects in the property platform space. Train has an affection for Rightmove, and like most UK institutional shareholders, when Australian firm REA attempted a takeover last year, he wasn’t interested in selling.

Sage presents itself as a value play when compared to US peers with Train noting the contrast between its valuation at five to six times sales compared to 10-15 times for comparable US-listed competitors. Rather than bemoaning the discount, Train mentions that CEO Steve Hare suggested UK investors will be rewarded as growth compounds from a more reasonable starting point.

Perhaps most intriguingly, Train sees AI potential beyond obvious technology plays. Recent investment Clarkson, the shipbroking business, increasingly uses maritime fleet data to create new products and services. “I’m very interested in finding UK-listed companies where AI tools could prove beneficial, not just pure data businesses,” Train says.

The Consumer Stalwarts

Despite the digital pivot, Train remains “an unapologetic advocate for semi-eternal consumer brands.” Diageo represents the largest consumer holding, anchored by brands like Guinness, Johnnie Walker, and Don Julio. “Those incredible brands will likely be consumed in greater volumes in 25 years than today – that’s the basis for both capital preservation and wealth creation,” Train argues, noting the shares have climbed from £5 in 2000 to £17.50 today despite recent setbacks.

Burberry and Fever Tree provide exposure to unique global brands, whilst a modest stake in Manchester United offers what Train calls a “totally unique franchise” likely to endure and appreciate over the coming decade.

The UK opportunity

Train pushes back against pessimism surrounding UK equities. Whilst acknowledging the market’s disappointing recent decade, he notes the fundamental difference between the UK stock market and the UK economy, pointing out that many of Finsbury’s portfolio companies earn revenue globally.

“I still see plenty of reasons not to be pessimistic about either the UK stock market or the UK economy,” he says. The key isn’t a broad market re-rating but rather exceptional companies growing larger and more profitable, lifting the index as they expand.

He draws encouragement from PwC research forecasting substantially stronger GDP growth through 2030 driven by AI adoption across industries. Combined with Goldman Sachs’ predictions of halving gas prices, potentially coinciding with peace in Ukraine and renewed access to Russian energy.

“You could see a combination of falling energy costs, growth driven by new technology, and interest rates peaking out,” Train suggests. “That creates an environment for strong earnings growth.”

Lower energy costs would particularly benefit AI development, addressing concerns about power consumption whilst accelerating the technology’s economic impact.

Patience and conviction

Train’s quarter-century stewardship of Finsbury Growth and Income Trust has reinforced patience and his conviction strategy. As both manager and the trust’s largest individual shareholder, he’s personally invested in the thesis that concentrated portfolios of exceptional businesses compound wealth over time.

The pivot towards AI-enabled data businesses reflects not an abandonment of principles but their application to new opportunities. Whether analysing Diageo or RELX, the framework remains consistent: seeking assets likely to remain relevant and valued by customers for decades to come.

“Be optimistic,” Train urges. “We should be optimistic about our corporate sector.” With UK-listed data businesses trading at discounts to US peers whilst executing AI strategies that double growth rates, the trust appears positioned to capitalise on what Train sees as a structural opportunity rather than a cyclical trade.

For investors seeking exposure to Britain’s AI revolution through proven, cash-generative businesses, Finsbury Growth and Income Trust offers a concentrated bet on Train’s conviction that the UK harbours world-class technology companies.

Serica Energy acquires major North Sea gas assets from Centrica

UK Investor Magazine
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5
Serica Energy acquires major North Sea gas assets from Centrica

Serica Energy has announced the acquisition of North Sea operations from Centrica’s Spirit Energy Limited worth £57 million.

Serica says the deal strengthens its position in the Southern North Sea and is expected to generate substantial cash flow. Centrica is disposing of the assets as part of its effort to maximise ‘value as it continues to reposition its infrastructure portfolio’.

The acquisition includes a 15% stake in the Cygnus field, one of the UK Continental Shelf’s largest producing gas fields. Serica will also gain interests in Clipper South, the Greater Markham Area, and several other gas fields including Eris, Ceres, and Galleon.

The transaction promises immediate returns for Serica, with the acquired assets expected to generate approximately $100 million in free cash flow by the end of 2028. This cash generation will support Serica’s growth strategy and enhance shareholder returns.

The deal adds 18.7 million barrels of oil equivalent in proven and probable reserves to Serica’s portfolio. This represents a 16% increase in the company’s reserves at a cost of just $3.9 per barrel equivalent.

Production capacity will increase by around 13,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first half of 2025, with 96% of this production consisting of gas.

“This transaction is a further step towards delivering on our strategy and diversifying our asset base through the addition of high-quality assets, adding over 15% to our reserves and significantly boosting production,” said Chris Cox, Serica’s CEO.

“These are also assets I personally know well, and the Cygnus field in particular is an attractive addition to our portfolio given its high uptime, low emissions, and low operating costs. There is also the potential for further infill drilling opportunities across the portfolio, most significantly at Cygnus, where drilling is ongoing.

“The transaction will require only modest cash outflow on completion and is set to generate material cash flows, while also limiting our exposure to future decommissioning costs, enhancing Serica’s ability to create further value for shareholders through investing in growth and delivering attractive cash returns.”  

The acquisition establishes Serica as an operator in the Southern North Sea, allowing the company to deploy its expertise in mature asset management. This diversifies Serica’s presence across the UK Continental Shelf and provides access to multiple hydrocarbon evacuation routes.

The Cygnus field stands out as a particularly attractive asset. With operating costs of approximately $11 per barrel equivalent and 97% operating efficiency, it represents a low-cost operation. The field’s carbon intensity of 7 kilograms of CO2 per barrel equivalent is well below the North Sea average.

Hollywood Bowl strikes another year of record revenue

UK Investor Magazine
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5
Hollywood Bowl strikes another year of record revenue

Hollywood Bowl Group has reported its fourth consecutive year of record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, with group revenue reaching £250.7 million for the year ended 30 September 2025, up 8.8% on the prior year.

The UK and Canada’s largest ten-pin bowling operator achieved adjusted EBITDA growth of 4.2% to £91.2 million. Statutory profit after tax rose 15.7% to £34.6 million, driven by strong operational execution and disciplined cost management.

Group like-for-like revenue increased 0.6%, with UK venues up 1.1% despite headwinds facing indoor leisure operators. Spend per game surged 9.2% in the UK and 14.8% in Canada, reflecting successful pricing initiatives whilst maintaining value credentials—a family of four can still bowl for £26.

Aggressive Expansion Programme

The company opened a record seven centres during the period – five in the UK and two in Canada. This puts Hollywood Bowl ahead of its target to reach 130 centres by 2035. The group also completed 12 refurbishments across both markets, with new sites and upgraded venues performing at or above expectations.

Canada has emerged as a significant growth driver, now accounting for 15% of group revenues. Since FY2022, the Canadian operation has tripled its centre count and delivered a 3.9-fold increase in revenue.

Strong Shareholder Returns

The group returned £35 million to shareholders through dividends and completed a £15 million share buyback. The board proposed a final dividend of 9.18p, bringing the total dividend to 13.28p, and updated its dividend policy to 55% of adjusted profit after tax.

Outlook Remains Positive

Management highlighted robust demand for affordable, multi-generational leisure in both markets. The company has secured four new centres for opening in FY2026 and maintains energy hedges through FY2027 to mitigate cost pressures.

With over 70% of UK revenue unaffected by cost-of-goods inflation and labour costs representing less than 20% of UK revenue, the business appears well-positioned to navigate external headwinds.

“We delivered a fourth consecutive year of record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, against a backdrop of industry-wide challenges,” said Stephen Burns, Chief Executive Officer.

“We achieved double digit revenue growth in amusements and are the number one bowling operator in Canada. Our focus on the customer proposition and operational excellence yielded strong results, with uplifts in spend per game across all categories whilst maintaining accessible pricing.”

“This performance demonstrates the resilience of our model and the enduring appeal of bowling for consumers. As we look to 2026, we remain focussed on delivering sustainable growth, while generating the compelling shareholder returns we are known for.”

FTSE 100 jumps ahead of wave of global economic data

UK Investor Magazine
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FTSE 100 jumps ahead of wave of global economic data

Could this be the start of the Santa rally? The FTSE 100 jumped on Monday, with most constituent shares gaining ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.

London’s leading index shook off a poor session for US shares on Friday, gaining 0.9% as cyclical sectors drew investor interest.

“Despite a sell-off in Asia, the FTSE 100 got off to a strong start on Monday, supported by higher precious metals prices,” says AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. 

“The continuing surge in gold and silver helped lift Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo, and there was broader strength in the mining sector, despite weak Chinese data. The sickly industrial production and retail figures strengthen the argument for new stimulus efforts from the government in Beijing. 

“The relative lack of exposure to AI in the UK is proving more of a boon of late amid increased nervousness about valuations in the space.”

UK investors will be looking forward to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision this week and an early dose of festive cheer when rates are expected to be cut to 3.75% – the lowest level since January 2023.

Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown, explained: “UK markets have a clear focal point this week, with the Bank of England in the spotlight and a rate cut on Thursday widely seen as a done deal.”

“Markets are pricing in around a 90% chance of a move, so, absent any shocks, the decision itself matters less than the Bank’s tone. Beyond domestic policy, UK assets will also take cues from the flood of delayed US economic data, making this a week where macro forces are firmly in the driving seat.”

Burberry was the top riser, adding 3%, as the luxury brand traded towards the top end of its trading range and looked set to close the year out with annual gains in excess of 30%.

IAG was another stock near the top of the leaderboard on Monday that has enjoyed gains through 2025.

Hikma was the top faller after announcing its CEO would step down after a terrible run for the shares.

“Things may not have got any worse since November’s disappointing update but it’s no shock to see Hikma Pharmaceuticals CEO Riad Mishlawi head for the exit,” Russ Mould said.

“The shares have lost more than a quarter of their value in 2025. The most damaging part of last month’s trading statement was the reduction in medium-term profit growth expectations – which forced a broader reassessment of the investment case than a mere blip in trading would have done. 

Raising the bar in financial education

Dominion Financial Review
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5
Raising the bar in financial education

DFR began as a small project, but it quickly became clear why it was gaining rapid traction among students. Many were struggling to secure internships, submitting hundreds of applications with no clear direction or meaningful feedback. A review of incoming CVs revealed a common pattern: nearly every student listed the same finance accelerator badge. This prompted a closer examination of what these programmes were providing. 

The findings were concerning. Many large training providers were passing students at thresholds as low as 40%, offering minimal personalised feedback, and charging upwards of £500 for simulations that produced certificates but little genuine development. The problem was not simply the high cost, but the gap between price, quality and actual learning. Students were not being challenged or taught how to think, articulate decisions, or reason through valuations and investment cases. They were receiving badges rather than skills. In contrast, DFR’s pricing is set at a noticeably lower level, around 50%, reflecting a model designed to be accessible without reducing standards. 

This revealed a clear need for a different type of accelerator. The sector is full of content yet lacking in genuine learning. Universities often fail to provide targeted, practical training, while many commercial accelerators prioritise scale over substance. The result is a generation of students underprepared for competitive roles in finance, consulting and markets. 

DFR is building the opposite of that model. 

The organisation’s approach is based on rigour, articulation, feedback and depth. Completing the mechanics of a DCF or LBO is straightforward. Far fewer candidates can justify assumptions, explain their logic, defend valuations, or place decisions within broader macroeconomic contexts. That is the capability gap DFR aims to close. 

To support this, DFR is developing a comprehensive reporting and feedback system that evaluates not only technical outputs but also the reasoning behind them. The system uses AI to analyse submissions, identify inconsistencies and produce targeted feedback with a level of detail and consistency that cannot be achieved manually at scale. It also tracks how each participant responds to concise weekly guidance, making it possible to understand how quickly individuals absorb instruction, correct errors and build analytical maturity over time. Progress is measured not by a single score but by growth, adaptability and improvement. These are the qualities employers genuinely value. 

The intended impact is clear. DFR aims to equip students with the competence, confidence and clarity needed to compete for top roles, not through badges but through genuine understanding. 

Progress to date has been strong. Early prototypes of DFR’s evaluation tools show that personalised, AI-supported feedback delivered in small but consistent increments significantly accelerates both performance and confidence. The framework is now being refined and the curriculum expanded, with industry professionals contributing to the build-out. Partnerships with leading universities are also being formalised to ensure the programme reflects the expectations of top global institutions. Preparations are now underway for the first full cohort launch in Q2 2026, which will be delivered as a fully developed MVP supported by experienced finance professionals and leading universities. 

DFR’s long-term vision is to build the most credible, impactful and intellectually rigorous accelerator in the market, one that raises standards rather than lowers them and one that genuinely prepares students for the realities of professional analysis. 

AIM movers: Chariot obtains funding for wind assets and eEnergy downgrades expectations again

Andrew Hore
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5
AIM movers: Chariot obtains funding for wind assets and eEnergy downgrades expectations again

Chariot (LON: CHAR) has completed a financing for two wind projects in South Africa. The funding is via a subsidiary, and the wind farms should be commissioned in mid-2027. Chariot retains 65% of the subsidiary and Mahlako is paying $17m for 35%. Chariot’s stake is valued at 2p/share. This is the start of the strategy to build up a portfolio of renewable energy assets. The share price gained 10.5% to 1.58p.

Haydale Graphene (LON: HAYD) has raised £5.25m at 0.5p/share from an accelerated bookbuild, although this is lower than the £5.91m anticipated. A retail offer could add up to £500,000 – this closes on 16 December. Haydale has agreed to acquire Intelligent Resource Management, which trades as SMCC for an initial £12m in shares at a notional price of 0.645p each. This deal will add consultancy and project installation to Haydale Graphene’s energy transition technologies and provide access to potential customers. Octopus converted £500,000 of convertible loan notes into 417.88 million shares. The share price rebounded 10% to 0.55p.

Mkango Resources (LON: MKA) joint venture HyProMag USA, a rare earth recycling and processing business, has expanded the Texas hub facility and is planning a listing in the US in around one year’s time. The NPV of the Texas project and two other sites is $409m based on current market prices. The figure is much higher based on forecast prices. Up front capital costs are $142m. The share price rose 8.65% to 56.5p.

Mathematical modelling and biostatistics company Physiomics (LON: PYC) has won a follow-on contract with an existing UK client. Physiomics has already worked with the client in “developing a population Pharmacokinetic (PK) model to inform the design of a Phase 2 clinical study for a small molecule therapeutic targeting rheumatoid arthritis”.  The latest contract will carry on into the phase 2 study. However, the project will not start until 2027. The work is valued at between £116,000 and £169,000. The share price increased 7.55% to 0.285p.

Cadence Minerals (LON: KDNC) says that the company that owns the Amapa iron ore project in Brazil has completed the first payment under a settlement that resolves the material legacy issues relating to the former owners of the project. This means that the development of the project can progress and ore transport restrictions are lifted. The share price improved 7.04% to 3.8p.

Shares in Van Elle (LON: VANL) recovered 1.45% to 35p after the completion of the sale of the Canadian rail business. This raised C$2.7m with a deferred payment of C$2m to be paid during 2026. The total is equivalent to £2.5m but subject to balance sheet adjustments.

FALLERS

Energy as a Service provider eEnergy Group (LON: EAAS) says £3m-£4m of expected 2025 revenues will be delayed until 2026. This is due to installation delays and contracts not being signed until next year. This means that 2025 revenues will fall to £23m-£24m (previously £28m was expected), but EBITDA should still improve from £600,000 to £1.5m-£1.9m, although £2.5m had been expected. Management believes that revenues could reach £20m in the first half of 2026 and is guiding full year revenues of £34m and EBITDA of £4.5m. Given the track record, investors are not going to take this 2026 forecast for granted. At the beginning of 2025, forecast revenues for the year were £31.5m and the EBITDA estimate was £3m. The share price declined 8.99% to 4.05p and is 16.5% lower this year.

GreenRoc Strategic Materials (LON: GROC) and its consortium partners have been granted up to £1.2m for a project called “EU-Graphite: Building European production of graphite active anode material” by the Danish government. This will help to cover expenses for 24 months while upscaling a hydrofluoric acid-free graphite purification technique. GreenRoc will receive £730,000 of the grant. The share price dipped 6.06% to 3.1p.

Adsure Services reports steady first half amid preparations for AI tool deployment

UK Investor Magazine
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5
Adsure Services reports steady first half amid preparations for AI tool deployment

Adsure Services, the specialist business assurance provider, has reported steady half-year results for the six months ending 30th September as the firm prepares to launch its proprietary Large Language Model (LLM) AI tool.

With revenues and profits largely unchanged compared to the same period a year ago, the most interesting part of the group’s interim results is the operational improvement that set Adsure, and its operating subsidiary TIAA, up for a strong set of full-year results.

As noted in a recent trading update, TIAA has achieved strong business growth through targeted sector development, with its order book expanding by double digits. The impact on revenues from this growing order book will likely be felt in the second half.

The result of the company’s focus on sector-driven growth was evident in the Housing sector, where client numbers surged by more than 20% since January 2025, reaching 130 individual clients. In Education, TIAA secured three new University contracts collectively worth £160,000, reinforcing its push to win higher-value contracts.

Innovation remains central to the firm’s strategy. Client testing has begun on ‘TIAA Insight’, a proprietary Large Language Model AI tool funded by Innovate UK, with full deployment planned for H1 2026. The K10 Vision ICT system launched in November, advancing the company’s ‘Fit for the Future’ strategic initiative.

The company continued its recognition of shareholders by declaring a dividend of 0.29p, payable in January.

“The Board is pleased to report that Adsure Services PLC has consolidated its growth during the first half of the financial year, delivering a robust and profitable interim performance,” said Kevin Limn, Chief Executive Officer of Adsure Services.

“This achievement reflects the ongoing commitment of our staff, strategic investments in technology, and the expansion of our service portfolio. Cash is consistent at £0.61m on 30 September 2025 (2024: £0.78m). This, coupled with £6m to 30 September 2025 revenue stabilising at £4.89m and net assets rising by 52% to £1.18m in the 12 month period to 30 September 2025, means that the Group is well-positioned for continued momentum in the second half of the year.

“Our focus on innovation, operational efficiency, and sector-driven business development has laid a strong foundation for future opportunities, and we remain confident in our ability to drive organic growth, create greater efficiencies and deliver value to all stakeholders”

UK Market Dynamics in Gold, Sterling & Cryptocurrency  

UK Investor Magazine
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6
UK Market Dynamics in Gold, Sterling & Cryptocurrency  

Sterling weakness, shifting inflation expectations, and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty have prompted UK investors to reassess the role of alternative assets in diversified portfolios. Gold and cryptocurrency now sit alongside traditional foreign exchange hedges as tools to manage the complex interplay between currency risk, global market volatility, and domestic political events. As these dynamics converge, the question is no longer whether to hold gold or crypto, but how their combined behaviour interacts with Sterling’s movements to influence real returns. 

How Sterling Movements Reshape Gold Returns 

For UK investors, the performance of gold is closely tied to the GBP/USD exchange rate. Gold is priced in dollars, meaning any fall in Sterling automatically increases the value of gold in GBP terms. Periods of political stress or monetary divergence with the U.S., such as fiscal event missteps, shifts in interest rate expectations, or widening yield differentials, can therefore amplify gold returns even when global bullion markets are relatively stable. Real portfolio risk is often driven more by Sterling’s behaviour than by the underlying gold market. 

Gold’s Hedging Role in UK-Specific Shocks 

Gold retains its defensive reputation, but domestic events uniquely influence its function for UK investors. During moments of Sterling instability, such as the post-Brexit adjustment period or the sharp repricing following the 2022 mini-budget, gold has reasserted itself as a hedge against rapid changes in currency confidence. At the same time, its volatility tends to rise when UK inflation expectations move sharply or when markets question the Bank of England’s ability to control price pressures. 

For investors concerned about the UK’s fiscal direction, rising gilt yields, or an uneven growth outlook, gold offers a form of insulation. Yet the hedge is not absolute. When Sterling strengthens, or global risk appetite improves, gold’s relative value for GBP holders can compress quickly, reinforcing the need for careful portfolio sizing. 

Crypto as a Speculative Hedge and Alternative Diversifier 

Crypto’s role has expanded beyond pure speculation. Younger UK investors in particular increasingly treat Bitcoin and Ethereum as alternative stores of value, albeit with far higher volatility and shorter investment horizons than gold. Crypto reacts to global liquidity conditions more rapidly than traditional assets, making it sensitive to expectations of central bank easing or tightening across major economies. This shifting behaviour has also encouraged some investors to consider modest allocations within broader diversification strategies, often including the selective exploration of a particular crypto investment alongside more established, defensive assets.  

Where gold’s volatility tends to coincide with macroeconomic stress and inflation uncertainty, crypto’s volatility often reflects structural factors, including market leverage, liquidity imbalances, protocol developments, and shifts in international regulatory stance. This makes crypto less predictable as a hedge against UK-specific shocks, but potentially valuable as a diversifier when macro catalysts differ across asset classes. 

FCA Regulation and Its Influence on Behaviour 

UK crypto participation is heavily shaped by the FCA’s tightening framework, which includes mandatory risk warnings, restrictions on marketing, and stricter oversight of promotions. These measures moderate speculative inflows but encourage a more measured approach among UK investors who incorporate digital assets into diversified portfolios, rather than treating them as standalone bets. 

Unlike gold, where the regulatory environment is stable and well understood, crypto remains subject to evolving policy. This distinction directly affects portfolio construction, as investors must weigh not only market volatility but also the operational and compliance risks that arise from regulatory change within the UK. 

Bank of England Policy as a Cross-Asset Driver 

When policy tightens, and rate differentials move in Sterling’s favour, the pound tends to appreciate, reducing GBP-denominated gold gains and often cooling defensive flows. Conversely, when forward guidance signals pressures on growth or limited room for further hikes, investors frequently rotate toward hedges that protect against weakening Sterling or rising inflation uncertainty. 

Crypto responds differently. While UK rate decisions have an indirect impact, digital assets primarily respond to global liquidity cycles. A shift in sentiment about future Federal Reserve or ECB policy, rather than BoE decisions, often drives short-term volatility, creating a divergence in how crypto and gold respond to the same macro backdrop. 

Political Volatility and the Search for Stability 

The UK’s political landscape remains a meaningful source of market friction. Fiscal events, Budget announcements, general elections, and ongoing Brexit-related adjustments can create rapid shifts in Sterling confidence. These periods historically trigger renewed interest in gold as a stabiliser when currency markets price in heightened risk. 

Crypto may also attract attention during political volatility, but for different reasons. Investors view it less as a safe haven and more as an uncorrelated or high-beta asset capable of making outsized moves when uncertainty rises. Understanding this behavioural split is critical, as it determines whether gold or crypto serves the intended role within a portfolio. 

Strategic Allocation: When Investors Favour Gold, Crypto or FX Hedges 

Portfolio decisions increasingly centre on identifying which risk is most relevant: 

  • Investors concerned about Sterling weakness or domestic inflation often turn to gold, aware that GBP/USD dynamics can amplify its impact. 
  • Those seeking exposure to innovation or looking for uncorrelated, high-volatility opportunities may allocate modest portions to crypto, accepting the larger drawdown risk. 
  • FX hedges, such as forwards or currency overlays, are employed when investors want gold exposure without inheriting full Sterling risk. 

Rather than competing for the same role, gold and crypto are now viewed as complementary tools, each addressing different categories of uncertainty within a UK context.  

The persistently strong US dollar has highlighted how currency translation can boost gold returns in Sterling terms even during flat global conditions. Meanwhile, gold volatility tends to rise when UK inflation expectations shift or when confidence in fiscal policy wavers. 

Crypto markets continue to respond swiftly to global liquidity signals, attracting active traders who embrace higher volatility in search of outsized gains. In portfolios designed to manage Sterling exposure and macro risk, crypto is increasingly treated as a satellite allocation rather than a direct substitute for gold. 

The Inside Scoop on Gold, Sterling & Crypto Market Dynamics 

Gold, Sterling, and crypto sit at a crossroads of currency risk, macroeconomic uncertainty, and technological change. For UK investors, the challenge is not just choosing the best hedge but also understanding how each asset reacts to different drivers, including BoE policy, fiscal signals, political developments, and global liquidity. Gold offers stability when Sterling wobbles, crypto provides asymmetric potential in an evolving regulatory environment, and FX hedges give investors control over currency exposure. 

Rightmove expects bigger Boxing Day bounce and house prices to rise 2% next year

UK Investor Magazine
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Rightmove expects bigger Boxing Day bounce and house prices to rise 2% next year

Rightmove is expecting a strong start to 2026 for the UK housing market and sees buyers and sellers resuming their moving plans in a ‘Boxing Day bounce’.

The UK property market needs it.

Average new seller asking prices fell by 1.8% this month to £358,138, marking a larger-than-usual December decline. This brings prices 0.6% lower at year-end compared to 2024.

The impact of the Budget and higher interest rates has been well-documented but these constraints are thought to start easing in the early stages of 2026.

Rightmove anticipates a stronger than usual Boxing Day Bounce, with early signs of recovery emerging as uncertainty fades. The number of top-end London sellers rising 24% week-on-week is evidence of this.

“Lower price growth supported buyer affordability and drove activity in the first half of the year, even after the April stamp duty deadline in England,” said Colleen Babcock, property expert at Rightmove.

“In the second half of 2025, uncertainty caused by rumours of property tax changes in November’s Budget swirled, some from as early as August. This had an impact on pricing and activity, as sellers tried to entice nervous buyers. The market will soon benefit from the traditional boost in home-moving activity from Boxing Day. Rightmove’s Boxing Day Bounce is an annual event where we see many begin or resume their plans to move after the distraction of Christmas. With the turkey and trimmings barely off the table, each year we see people heading straight to Rightmove to browse the fresh listings for sale and imagine how different next Christmas could look.

“With market conditions supporting higher levels of activity and a hopefully more certain economic environment, we forecast a better year for price growth in 2026 with a strong rebound in activity to kick start the year.”

Rightmove sees house price growth of 2% in 2026.

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