Victoria Flooring has issued a particularly down beat assessment of the flooring market they operate in highlighting an extended period of decline that has forced them to take cost cutting measures.

The group said in expects EBITDA for the first half to be £50m, significantly lower than the £64.9m recorded in H2 2024.

Falling profitability is the result of slow sales across the industry. Victoria estimates volumes across the entire industry are down 20% – 25%.

To combat falling volumes, the company have implemented measures including streamlining procurement, relocating some manufacturing facilitate, and reorganising production of ceramics. 

Despite macro influences playing a heavy part in first half trade, the company is confident the second half should see signs of improvement driven by increased mortgage approvals and rising transactions.

“The flooring sector is experiencing the most severe and longest decline in demand in the last 30 years. During this period, we have focussed on optimising productivity and reducing operational costs whilst maintaining the same potential production capacity,” said Chief Executive, Philippe Hamers.

“These actions will have a very material positive impact on earnings and cash flow as demand normalises with the anticipated improvement in the macro-economic environment and increase in housing transactions, a key driver of demand. Clearly the recovery continues to draw closer, although it is difficult to pinpoint precisely when it will begin. However, we remain prepared for growth when the time arrives, which will be delivered without any significant capex spend.”

Victoria Flooring shares were down 2% at the time of writing.

The FTSE 100 traded in a tight range on Monday as weakness in gambling companies and miners offset gains in utility and pharmaceutical stocks.

Undulating between negative and positive territory, London’s leading index traded in a 30 point range for most of the session.

“Stocks are largely set to tread water at the start of the week as investors look for a sense of direction as US earnings season builds, and the latest stimulus plan from China comes under scrutiny,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.

Mining companies were prominent in the top fallers as the China stimulus trade softened overnight and hit the high beta sector. Antofagasta, Glencore and Fresnillo all found themselves at the bottom of the leaderboard with losses between 2.1%-3.2%.

The biggest faller was gambling company Entain who tumbled 7% on fear Labour would target the gambling industry as part of their tax raid in the Budget.

“Several names in the gambling space were underwater on speculation Labour is considering plans to double taxation on online casinos and bookies in the upcoming Budget,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“Labour is desperately looking for ways to raise revenue, having ruled out increasing taxes on ‘working people’. It’s notable that the speculation suggests so-called ‘lower harm’ activities like bingo and the lottery will be untouched by any tax changes.

“The betting industry will argue higher taxes could lead to an increase in illegal black-market gambling and ultimately firms may well pass on any extra costs they incur to punters, potentially doing more harm.

“Today’s news is a salient reminder of the strengthening headwinds the sector faces in terms of regulation and tax and that this remains a live risk for investors to consider.”

Vistry was the top gainer as the house building company started a slow recovery of the losses sustained after announcing cost miscalculations that recently sent shares into free fall. Vistry was 3% higher.

Strength in utility companies SSE, Severn Trent, and United Utilities suggested investors were leaning towards lower risk companies amid the ongoing macro uncertainty.

Innovative Eyewear, known for its ChatGPT-enabled smart eyewear brands, has unveiled the world’s first generative AI fashion show dedicated to eyewear.

The video released on Monday by the Tekcapital portfolio company showcases its latest smart eyewear collections, including collaborations with Reebok, Nautica, and Eddie Bauer.

The latest deployment of Generative AI by a Tekcapital portfolio company uses digitally created models and real Lucyd smart eyewear.

Tekcapital investors should be particularly interest to see the Reebok range due for release in the coming months featured. Digital avatars are seen strutting down a virtual runway, each sporting an actual pair of Lucyd glasses.

“We believe AI models are the future of product photography and marketing, and are an exciting leap forward in digital advertising,” said Harrison Gross, CEO and cofounder of Lucyd.

“With this technology, we can break free from content creation constraints and create vibrant, interactive experiences with impressive detail, that captivate audiences while slashing production costs and timelines.

“To bring the point home, a video using practical effects and real models would have easily cost 20x more than the creation of this digital event, and the final product would perhaps not be as exciting and unique as our first AI runway. This piece follows our longstanding mission to incorporate powerful emerging technologies into our smart eyewear offering, wherever it can support a more engaging user experience.”

I have met many, perhaps too many, company bosses that put in little effort into their businesses and expect it all to happen for them. 

However, I have never met Mike Ashley or his son-in-law Michael Murray but I have an immense admiration for their efforts to drive value for Frasers Group (LON:FRAS) shareholders, especially for Ashley with 73% of the £3.65bn group’s equity. 

A veritable myriad of interests lie within the Frasers portfolio, with brand names inside including Sports Direct, House of Fraser, Flannels, 18 Montrose, Amara Living, Evans Cycles, Everlast and Everlast Gyms, Frasers, Game & Belong, Gieves & Hawkes, I Saw It First, Jack Wills, Slazenger, Sofa.Com, Studio, USA Pro, USC, Agent Provocateur, Donnay, Camprio, Carlton, Game, karrimor, Firetrap, GUL, gelert, Lillywhites, Lonsdale, MuddyFox, LA Gear, scott, Nevica, Sondico, SoulCal & Co, Tessuiti and Van Mildert – the list seems endless. 

And all the above are just its direct retail interests – however, Ashley, through Frasers has investment stakes in AO World, Currys, Hugo Boss, THG, boohoo Group, ASOS, and more. 

Of late Mike Ashley has also been getting stuck into buying up shopping centres, just at a time when so many groups are closing down High Street shops all over the country. 

Frasers Group CEO Michael Murray has commented that the group is striving to re-invent and elevate retail for UK shoppers, bringing the very best brands, environments and experiences to all of Frasers’ customers across the country. 

It has recently purchased the 600,000 sq.ft. Princesshay Shopping Centre in Exeter, the Fremlin Walk Shopping Centre in Kent and the 65,000 sq.ft. Olympus Centre retail park in Gloucester. 

Murray stated that: 

“The acquisition of Princesshay, Fremlin Walk and The Olympus Centre reinforces our commitment to investing in physical retail. 

Securing properties which serve as the primary retail destination for the community remains a top priority for us.  

Such acquisitions unlock new growth opportunities for our retail concepts, while revitalising high streets and physical shopping locations up and down the country.” 

But just buying up properties across the UK is not enough for the dynamic duo. 

Last week alone Frasers added to its holding in the Mulberry Group (LON:MUL), as I featured on Monday of last week, despite having been rejected in its 130p a share proposed offer for the handbag company. 

Hours after the market closed on Friday night, it put out a statement with reference to making a Possible Cash Offer for the Somerset-based leathergoods company. 

It has stated that it is considering making a 150p a share cash offer for the balance of the Mulberry equity that it does not already own, but it needs acceptance of the proposal first of all from Ong Beng Seng’s Challice Limited, which controls 56% of the stock, against Frasers’ 37% stake. 

Frasers stated that it believes that the £10m recent Subscription for the group will not be enough, it is Frasers’ belief that this will likely lead to another capitalisation event within the medium-term timeframe unless there is immediate and very real change at the company. 

Emphasising its intentions, Frasers stated that despite Mulberry’s catastrophic results, its necessity for emergency funding, and difficult market backdrop, Frasers strongly believes it can provide the appropriate insulation and investment to support a much-loved British brand.  

As part of the Frasers portfolio, the Mulberry brand would be provided with the platform to ensure its long-term survival and success. 

We will await the response from Challice to see how the situation plays out. 

Frasers Group shares are trading at around 811p, valuing it at £3.65bn, while Mulberry Group closed at 112.5p on Friday night, capitalising it at £78.8m. 

On another front, last Thursday, Frasers declared that it was making a £10m strategic investment in Matt Moulding’s THG scheme to spin-off its Ingenuity technology arm. 

Earlier this month Good Energy Group (LON:GOOD), the 100% renewable electricity supplier and leading innovator in clean energy services, announced that it was paying up to £6m for the acquisition of Amelio Enterprises. 

Trading as Amelio Solar, it is a Lincolnshire-based solar installation company with a strong presence in the commercial solar sector and extensive experience in education and public sector projects. 

This deal looks like a strategic fit into Good Energy, which has a vision of powering a cleaner, greener future by making it simple to generate, use and share clean energy, as it looks to expand its capability in decentralised energy services by significantly widening its geographical presence in the solar installation market. 

In its year to end-December 2023, Amelio Solar reported revenue of £7.1m and a pre-tax profit of £1.4m. 

On making the Amelio acquisition CEO Nigel Pocklington stated that: 

“Amelio Solar is a perfect fit for Good Energy as we continue to grow our clean energy service offerings, especially in the commercial and public sectors where demand for solar installations remains strong and less susceptible to the cyclical fluctuations seen in the domestic market.   

Amelio Solar’s proven ability to deliver large, complex solar projects will enable us to better support businesses and public sector bodies in cutting their carbon emissions, while positioning Good Energy as a leader in commercial solar solutions.” 

Management Comment 

In mid-September, when announcing the group’s unaudited results for the six months to end-June, Pocklington stated that: 

“As the energy supply market has normalised, we have shown strong profitability in the first half of the year, whilst our expansion into energy services is showing promise as we consolidate our offer to customers. 

Having completed three acquisitions in the clean energy installation services space we are now offering solar, storage, heat pumps and EV charging across the South - a trusted, truly green brand offering whole greener home and business solutions.  

Good Energy is established as the microgeneration specialist, with a significant market share of rooftop solar customers, leading export tariff rates and premium installation services. 

In a favourable policy environment promising an imminent ‘rooftop revolution’ as the new government accelerates the clean energy transition, Good Energy is well placed for growth.” 

Analyst’s Views 

At Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets, analyst Alex Brooks likes the Amelio acquisition and rates the group’s shares as a Buy, with a 500p ‘sum of the parts’ Price Objective. 

His current year estimates to end-December are for revenues of £203.5m (£254.7m) but with pre-tax profits of £6.7m (£5.7m), lifting earnings to 26.1p (17.0p) and upping its dividend to 3.6p (3.3p) per share. 

For 2025 Brooks goes for £213.3m sales, £10.8m profits, and 45.8p earnings, with just a 3.9p dividend per share. 

At Panmure Liberum, analyst Joe Brent has estimates for current year sales of £197m, £6.3m profits, 25.8p earnings and paying a 3.4p dividend. 

For 2025, he looks for £197m in sales, £10.1m in profits, 41.1p earnings, and a dividend of 3.8p per share. 

He rates the Amelio deal as attractive and consistent with Good Energy’s strategy for its Energy-as-a-Service (EaaS) policy. 

Panmure’s Price objective is 550p a share. 

In My View 

Based upon the broker’s estimates, this group’s shares, at just 264p, look to be a cracking one-year investment, which could well see them put on 50% in price and, even then, still look cheap. 

Two months ago I wrote about, what I considered to be, the attractions of investing in the shares of Ramsdens Holdings (LON:RFX), the specialist lending group. 

That was on Tuesday 6^th August, after the pawnbroker and jeweller had reported a positive Trading Update for its year to end-September. 

The Business 

The Middlesbrough based group, which is FCA authorised for its pawnbroking and credit broking activities, operates some 169 stores in the UK, which also includes one franchised store, additionally it also has a growing online presence.  

The group defines itself as a growing, diversified, financial services provider and retailer, operating in four core business segments: foreign currency exchange, pawnbroking loans, precious metals buying and selling, and the retailing of second hand and new jewellery.  

Pre-Close Trading Update 

Ahead of announcing its Final Results for the year to end-September, due on 14^th January next year, the group last Thursday issued some corporate information about its trading in the last year. 

In August it informed the market that it had enjoyed another year of record performance. 

It now expects to report profit before tax of at least £11m (FY23: £10.1m) and noted that its positive trading momentum sets the business up well for continued growth in FY25. 

Management Comment 

CEO Peter Kenyon stated that: 

“We’re pleased with the record profit performance in FY24.   

All key income streams are growing and we have optimism for further progress in FY25. 

This performance once again demonstrates the strength of our diversified business model which underpins our long-term growth strategy.” 

Analyst’s Views 

At Panmure Liberum, its analysts – James Allen, Joe Byrne and Rae Maile – rate the group’s shares as a Buy. 

They have set a Price Objective of 305p on its shares. 

The analysts are estimating that the 2024 year will have seen some £95m (£84m) in sales, with pre-tax profits rising to £11.2m (£10.1m), lifting earnings to 25.6p (24.0p) and its dividend to 11.2p (10.4p) per share. 

For the year just started they anticipate £97m of sales, £11.2m profits, 25.7p earnings and a dividend of 11.4p a share. 

The analysts conclude their note after yesterday’s statement by stating that: 

“We retain our BUY recommendation and 305p target price, based on a blend of a FY 25 P/E valuation and a dividend discount model.  

The shares are trading on a modest CY 24 P/E of 8.0x.  

We think that is too cheap when closest peer H&T is on 7.2x, Ramsdens has a more diversified operating model, and has a better track record of delivering upgrades.  

A dividend yield of 5.5% is also much higher than the c.4% average since listing.” 

In My View 

The shares of Ramsdens Holdings, at 207.5p, are looking far too cheap on just 8 times historic earnings, and on such an attractive 5.4% yield. 

I can certainly understand why the Panmure Liberum analysts rate them as a Buy.  

In my view, I would suggest that an early rise to 245p or thereabouts is more than possible. 

It may be of little comfort to shareholders of the Belfast-based shipyard group Harland & Wolff (LON:HARL), but over the weekend, we have learned that one of its ‘partners’ is interested in taking the company out of its Administration state. 

The Spanish State-controlled Navantia Group is said to be in ‘exclusive’ talks with Teneo, the H&W Administrators, about some sort of deal that could be good news for the shipyard group’s 1,000 workers. 

The Madrid-based Navantia group designs and builds military and civilian ships with high technology and innovation. 

Its ‘SMARTShips’ address the essential elements for new ships over the next decade or two, as they look to explore and incorporate innovations to anticipate Navantia’s response on new threats, new linked operations between services, new materials and production methods, reduced crew operation, new propulsion and energy generation concepts, new combat systems, extensive use of UxV, and new and enhanced sensors and communication systems. 

H&W and Navantia are partners in a £1.6bn Government programme concerning the construction and supply of three Fleet Solid Support tanker ships for the Royal Fleet Auxiliary, which is believed to be worth some £700m to H&W. 

The RFA requires the FSS ships to support the two new Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers with food and munitions. 

Navantia is believed to have already made available some lines of emergency funding to H&W so as to enable the shipyards to continue their operations, while alternatives are under investigation. 

Of importance to both Teneo and H&W is the pressure caused by its debt negotiations with Riverstone Holdings over repayment of the $140m high-interest facility that has been taken out by the Belfast group. 

Realistically, rumours suggest, Riverstone may well have to take a partial hit on any time-delayed settlement.