Lloyds share price: further upside potential in 2021

The Lloyds share price (LON:LLOY) staged a white-knuckle ride of a rally in late 2020, before making a retracement into the close of the year.

Despite the sharp pull-back, Lloyds has more to offer investors in 2021 with shares valued attractively and the prospect of a UK economic recovery likely to boost sentiment around Lloyds shares.

As we have previously noted when analysing Lloyds, valuing Lloyds by their profitability during the pandemic can be a perilous pursuit as UK banks’ profits have been ravaged by the Black Swan event of COVID-19, making the past 12 months earnings a poor barometer of earnings in the future.

In addition, profits over the next couple of quarters will be unpredictable and largely correlated to short-term government decisions on economic lockdown restrictions. 

We would look to the book value or net asset value of Lloyds as the foremost valuation methodology.

Lloyds shares

During the pandemic, investors have effectively marked down their perceptions of what Lloyds assets are worth due to the risks of default caused by a severe economic downturn.

The Lloyds share price fell as low as 24p in 2020, before recovering.

Now that the worst of the economic uncertainty is behind us with the roll out of vaccines, the market is likely to reduce their risk rating attached to Lloyds shares as the chances of significant rates of default diminish.

The end of the furlough scheme and changes to taxes in the UK still pose potential threats to the underlying health of the UK economy, and Lloyds profitability, but these are favourable when compared to a protracted pandemic and lockdown. 

With Lloyds shares trading at roughly 50% of the Book Value of the company, there is plenty of space for shares to move to the upside and back in line with historical averages. 

Lloyds Dividend

There is also the prospect of the bank resuming the payments of dividends in the near term. Lloyds, along with all other UK banks, ceased the payments of dividends after a warning from the Bank of England they must conserve cash to see them through the coronavirus pandemic.

With the pandemic seemingly moving towards its final stages after the approval of the third vaccine in the UK, The Bank of England have lifted guidance against paying dividends meaning Lloyds are now free start paying dividends again. 

Investors should expect dividend guidance in Lloyds next update, but also understand the resumption of dividends will likely be gradual over the coming reporting periods. 

Nonetheless, the additional buying pressure from income investors returning to the stock will provide support for the share price going forward.

The combination of anticipation surrounding the Lloyds dividend and the low Price-to-Book valuation means the 2021 trading year is likely to be a positive one for the Lloyds share price, discounting any unexpected bad news concerning coronavirus.

Heathrow passenger numbers plunge 73%

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Passenger numbers at Heathrow airport have plunged 75% in 2020, down to 22.1m.

The number of people passing through the airport last year was 85m fewer than in 2019.

In October, Heathrow was no longer deemed Europe’s largest airport and the drop in passengers led to Charles de Gaulle in Paris taking the title.

The pandemic has led to a sharp drop in passengers in 2020 and despite fewer restrictions in December, the number of people travelling through the airport was still down 83% to 1.1m.

Recent rules introduces means that passengers arriving in the UK are having to provide a negative Coronavirus test. Heathrow’s chief executive John Holland-Kaye commented: “While we support tightening border controls temporarily by introducing pre-departure testing for international arrivals, as well as quarantine, this is not sustainable.”

“The aviation industry is the cornerstone of the UK economy but is fighting for survival. We need a road map out of this lockdown, and a full waiver of business rates.

“This is an opportunity for the government to show leadership in creating a Common International Standard for pre-departure testing that will allow travel and trade to restart safely so that we can start to deliver the Prime Minister’s vision of a Global Britain,” he added.

The airport has introduced rapid Covid tests. Tests available at the airport will cost £80 and results will be made available within the hour and will be offered by British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and Cathay Pacific.

“Many other countries are already using testing to keep their borders safe while restarting trade and travel,” said Holland-Kaye. “These facilities will make it easier for passengers going to those countries to get a test and have the potential to provide a service for arriving passengers,” he added.

Dr Martens prepares London IPO

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Dr Martens is planning its float on the London Stock Exchange, in what would be one of the first big public offerings of 2021.

The iconic footwear retailer, which sells shoes in 60 countries across the world, is owned by Permira.

In the year ending Mach 2020, the group saw revenues of £672m. In the six months ending 30 September 2020, the group had revenues of £318.2m, which is an 18% year-on-year growth.

Chairman Paul Mason said: “We have made significant investment in the business over the last few years to strengthen the team, our operations and position ourselves for the next exciting stage of development, as a publicly listed company. We’re also committed to strong corporate governance and making sure we always do things the right way.”

Dr Martens is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley ahead of the flotation.

Chief executive Kenny Wilson said: “Our iconic brand appeals to a diverse range of consumers around the world who wear our footwear to express their individual style. We have invested massively to ensure that we deliver the best digital and store experiences to connect with our wearers, and through this we are driving our long term, sustainable growth.”

Due to strong trading last year, the retailer returned money from the government’s coronavirus job retention scheme. Dr Martens said in a statement: “Given the resilience in trading and financial strength of the business, the board took the decision to return the taxpayer funds utilised from the UK Government furlough scheme, and these funds have now been repaid.”

JD Sports shares rise on strong Christmas trading

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JD Sports shares were up over 4% this morning after the group said that its profits will be ahead of market expectations.

The retailer released a trading update for the Christmas period, where it said it expects pre-tax profits to come in at around £400m – this is much higher than the average forecasts of £295m.

Total revenues for the 22-week period to 2 January 2021 were more than 5% ahead of the prior year as consumers “readily switched between physical and digital channels.”

Looking ahead, JD Sports has said that the effects of the pandemic are continuing to present challenges.

“Whilst we are confident that we have the proposition to continue to attract consumers throughout this period, the process to scale down activity in stores and scale up the digital channels, often at extremely short notice, presents significant challenges. We are indebted to all of our colleagues in our different territories who have had to adopt new ways of working,” said the retailer in a statement.

JD Sports said that because of the ongoing uncertain outlook and UK stores likely to be closed until at least Easter, its current best estimate is for 5%-10% growth in headline pre-tax profit.

Last month, shares in the retailer surged as it bought sportswear brand Shoe Palace in a deal worth $325m (£243.7m).

The deal means that JD Sports is extending presence in California and other US states including Texas, Florida and Nevada. The deal was all in cash and the owner of the retailer, Genesis, will then have 100% of both Shoe Palace shares.

JD sports shares are trading 4.68% higher at 890,60 (0850GMT).

Bitcoin plunges 10% – FCA warns against cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin crashed over 10% on Monday morning to around $34,000. This comes after a recent surge where the price of the cryptocurrency doubled in just five weeks.

As the price of Bitcoin drops, the FCA has issued a warning around investing in cryptocurrencies. It said: “Investing in cryptoassets, or investments and lending linked to them, generally involves taking very high risks with investors’ money.

“If consumers invest in these types of product, they should be prepared to lose all their money. As with all high-risk, speculative investments, consumers should make sure they understand what they’re investing in, the risks associated with investing, and any regulatory protections that apply.”

Reasons that the FCA are speculative of cryptocurrencies are down to the lack of customer protection, price volatility, product complexity, charges and fees, and the marketing materials.

Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency that is down this morning.

Kyle Rodda is a market analyst at IG. She commented on Bitcoin’s turbulent nature: “Perhaps betraying it wares as a risk-asset itself, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are coming under selling pressure too today, as the upward momentum in prices begins to diminish, and even threaten to roll-over. Bitcoin is always a victim of thin liquidity, so much like last week, the dip so far seen in the cryptocurrency could be quickly bought come this evening when trading conditions become a little healthier.

“Of course, after such an extraordinary rally in recent weeks, to historically overbought levels, Bitcoin is arguably another asset overdue for a pullback.”

Bitcoin has doubled in value over December as it hit the $20,000 mark halfway into the month. Its price has increased by more than 700% since March 2020. It has critics and many analysts predicted the bubble is due to burst soon.

Online retailers set for impressive updates

Christmas retail trading statements have started to come thick and fast both from large retailers, such as Marks & Spencer (LON: MKS), and smaller retailers including AIM-quoted Joules (LON: JOUL). There are still plenty of significant trading statements to come from AIM-quoted retailers, particularly the online-focused ones.
Fashion retailer Joules has shown that its online sales growth has helped to offset the loss of high street sales. Between 15 November and 3 January there was a 0.3% rise in retail sales. Online sales grew 66% and high street sales fell 58%. There has been a downgrade...

NIO shares hit all-time high as investors await NIO Day

NIO shares (NYSE:NIO) broke to all time highs in Friday’s session as investor eagerly awaited the fourth annual ‘NIO Day’ and the unveiling of a new flagship car.

Listed in New York, NIO is China’s answer to Elon Musk’s Tesla with a range of smart and sustainable automotives that use electric batteries.

NIO Day is celebration of the Chinese company’s technology and is akin to Apple’s launch events with investors and media abuzz with the latest unveiling of new products.

2020’s NIO Day comes days after the company released bumper delivery figures that showed a 121% increase in December when compared to a year prior.

NIO delivered 7,007 vehicles in December and a total of 43,728 in 2020 – a 112% increase on 2019.

The growth in delivered vehicles has been reflected in NIO shares which posted strong gains through 2020. Having traded below $4 in January 2020, shares in ‘China’s Tesla’ touched $59 the day before NIO Day 2020.

“2020 has been a challenging year for the whole world. Against this backdrop, NIO has achieved consecutive record-highs along the way, and closed the year on a high note with a remarkable December deliveries of over 7,000 vehicles,” said William Bin Li, founder, chairman, and chief executive officer of NIO.

“These results are attributable to the growing recognition of our premium brand, the competitive and compelling products and services, the expanding sales network, and most importantly, the continuous support from our passionate and loyal user community. The innovative Battery as a Service (BaaS) model has shown popularity among our users since its launch. With the 100kWh battery pack offered as an option, the penetration of BaaS has reached over 40% among new orders in December, demonstrating its competitiveness and acceptance by our users. At the fourth NIO Day scheduled on January 9th, 2021, we will unveil our new sedan model and share the latest development of our autonomous driving and other core technologies. Aspired by the spirit of ‘Always Forward,’ the theme of the upcoming NIO Day, we will continue investing in the smart EV technologies, accelerating our new products development, broadening our sales and service network, and striving for the best holistic experiences for our growing user community in 2021 and beyond.”

NIO’s Chinese company name translates to ‘blue sky coming’ – worth noting with NIO shares trading at all time highs prior to NIO Day.

Bitcoin tops $40,000 in new record

It was another record-breaking day for Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency surged above $40,000 (£29,500) for the first time.

Bitcoin has doubled in value over December as it hit the $20,000 mark halfway into the month. Its price has increased by more than 700% since March 2020.

Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst at AvaTrade, commented on the cryptocurrency: “A major price level has been hit and bitcoin has proved that this is not the asset class you want to mess around with. It has proved itself to all disbelievers today.

“Institutional traders are the ones who have really got the rally going”

Bitcoin has many critics and some analysts predict the bubbles burst as it approaches $50,000.

Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda said: “We are very much in speculative bubble territory now and while I don’t think its done, it’s becoming increasingly likely that it’s going to get messy as there’s no logic behind what we’re seeing.”

“It’s pure speculation and FOMO [fear of missing out] and that never ends well. I previously said I wouldn’t be surprised to see $50,000 before the end of the month and I’m now thinking that was too conservative. The last $10,000 move only took four days. It’s getting silly now,” he added.

ESG ETFs boom in 2020 as AUM triples

ESG and Impact Investing were rapidly growing investment themes before the coronavirus pandemic and the latest data from TrackInsight highlights investors continued to allocate capital to ESG ETFs. This was despite volatility in the wider market that presented a plethora of opportunities across more established themes,

Analysis by ETF research platform TrackInsight found ESG ETFs enjoyed a 223% increase in assets under management in 2020 to $189bn.

The growth in ESG ETFs helped overall ETF assets under management grow to $7.6 trillion at the beginning of 2021

ESG ETFs

ESG investing is multifaceted pursuit as investors can embark on investment allocation that ranges from omitting firms such as alcohol, fossil fuel and defensive companies through to only investing in companies that have diverse boards that promote equality.

However, with the urgency around climate change front and centre, investor appetite for ESG ETFs has largely been directed at those with exposure to green energy. Indeed, these were some of the best performing ETFs of 2020.

Data from TrackInsight shows Invesco Solar ETF and Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy were by far the best performing ETFs of 2020 returning 221% and 200% respectively.

The Invesco Solar ETF tracks the MAC Global Solar Energy Index that includes companies such as Enphase Energy Inc, which traded at $31 in January 2020 and surged through 2020 to trade $213 in early January 2021.

Source:TrackInsight

“ETFs faced an acid test in 2020 and passed with flying colours. The tremendous growth we have witnessed demonstrates how ETFs have successfully convinced investors of the benefits of a liquid, tradable and transparent product – especially during volatile markets,” said Anaelle Ubaldino, Head of ETF Research and Investment Advisory at TrackInsight. 

“It’s also clear that 2020 was a long-awaited turning point for ESG ETFs with huge growth in this sector. As competition for potentially Trillions of dollars of new ESG assets heating up, we expect to see more issuers enter the ESG ETF market over 2021.”

Reach shares jump on online sales surge

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Reach shares soared on Friday morning as the publisher saw digital revenue in Q4 grow by 25%.

The owner of Express, the Daily Star and other brands posted a strong digital performance and expects underlying operating profit for 2020 to between £130m to £135m. This is ahead of analyst consensus expectations which were £122m.

The chief executive, Jim Mullen, said: “It is a testament to our people that Reach has not only dealt with the unique challenges 2020 has presented, but we have accelerated our strategy and we are ahead of where we expected to be.

“The new COVID-19 restrictions bring macro-economic uncertainty, but the changes made in the business during 2020 to develop a new, more efficient operating model put us in a strong competitive position.”

In July, Reach said it planned to axe 550 jobs, which is over 10% of its workforce. Print sales fell 12% in the fourth quarter. and overall quarterly revenues were down 10% on a year ago.

December saw the group reach five million online customers registered for Reach ID. This is the customer insight platform that provides a combined view of the user’s activity across all of the group’s sites.

This month Reach will launch new sites that will cover Bedfordshire and Buckinghamshire. It is also expanding the MyLondon editorial team.

Last year, Reach suspended its interim dividend “due to Covid-19 uncertainty”.

Reach shares are trading 18.46% at 208.01 (1133GMT) and hit a 10-year high.