FTSE 100: Bank of England action could be key in 2021

Alan Green joins the UK Investor Magazine Podcast for a thorough exploration of this weeks key themes including Brexit, COVID and expectations of Bank of England action.

We discuss Bidstack (LON:BIDS), ECR Minerals (LON:ECR) and OnTheMarket (OTMP).

Bidstack has said revenue improved dramatically in the second half of the year after a slow first half of testing. ECR Minerals and OnTheMarket are two companies we have discussed in depth before and we take a look at their recent updates and what it could mean for 2021.

Safestyle shares surge on strong trading

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Safestyle shares (LON: SFE) surged almost 16% on Thursday as the group reported strong order intake growth and increased operational capacity.

The group delivered 9% year on year revenue growth in Q3 and is expected to deliver c.20% revenue growth for Q4. Looking into next year, Safestyle remains confident and said they plan to “enter 2021 with its strongest ever installation pipeline at this stage of the year, providing a solid platform to maintain its current trading momentum whilst at the same time providing some insulation against the potential impact of disruption to future sales activities from further lockdowns.”

The fourth quarter is on track deliver their strongest financial result for any quarter since 2017. Full year revenue is expected to be over £113m, with an underlying loss before taxation of approximately £4.5m – with any losses attributed to the first lockdown.

Mike Gallacher, the chief executive of Safestyle, commented: “Despite the unprecedented challenges faced by the Group during the year, I am pleased with the recent tangible progress we have made in stepping up our operational capacity and delivering strong revenue growth, whilst further strengthening our order book. Moreover, we have also made good progress on our longer-term strategic priorities. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with the current economic backdrop, the Group is well positioned to build on this positive momentum going into 2021.”

In September, shares in the group fell after the group revealed pre-tax loss of £5m in the six months to June 30. The group said that revenue and profitability between March and May had fallen as a result of the pandemic and having to cease trading.

The group expects next year’s market to be ahead of expectations. Shares (LON: SFE) are trading +15.76% at 42.60 (1200GMT). In the year to date, shares are down from previous highs of 43.42.

TalkTalk will go private on £1.1bn takeover deal

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TalkTalk has confirmed a £1.1bn takeover deal by Toscafund and a private-equity investor.

The deal means that the broadband provider will go private. Under the agreement, TalkTalk shareholders will receive 97p per share, which is a 16% premium on shares as of 7 October – when the offer was made.

“Being a private company would allow us to accelerate adoption and focus on our role as the affordable provider of fibre for businesses and consumers nationwide,” said Sir Charles Dunstone, TalkTalk Chairman.

“The telecoms industry is going through a fundamental reset and we are keen to play our part in it.”

On the news, shares in the group rose 3%. TalkTalk revealed the deal in a trading update, revealing a 13% fall in profits to £122m amid the pandemic.

The chief executive, Tristia Harrison, said: “Our financials have been resilient in the first half, albeit with some impact of COVID-19 on headline revenue and EBITDA.

“Lockdown has taught us that fast, reliable and affordable connectivity is more important than ever, and we have seen excellent network performance despite a 40%+ increase in data usage.”

The group currently has around four million customers.

Ian West, the senior non-executive director at the company, said: “The Independent TalkTalk directors have taken into account the risks associated in achieving TalkTalk’s strategic ambitions and the wide support that ToscaFund would provide in this regard.

“The Independent TalkTalk directors believe, taking into account the advice they have received, that the terms of the cash offer are fair and reasonable, and are unanimously recommending that shareholders accept the cash offer.”

TalkTalk shares are trading +2.78% at 98.93 (1144GMT).

Bidstack shares soar as revenue ‘on track to exceed market expectations’

Bidstack (LON:BIDS) shares jumped as much as 26% in early trade on Thursday following the release of a trading statement that pointed to significant progress in the second half of the year.

Bidstack operates in-game advertising services that allows brand to play their native adverts throughout the computer game experience.

In their half results released in August this year, Bidstack only reported £300,000 in revenue, which was met by initial disappointment by the market.

Today’s announcement paints a more positive picture as it suggests the company is now moving beyond the initial testing phase and is making their way on to the advertising plans of major brands.

Bidstack said in a statement they had ‘experienced significantly increased demand from advertisers in the second half of 2020,’ but stopped short of giving any revenue figures during the period saying they were ‘on track to exceed market expectations’.

“In the second half of 2020 we have been conducting our work with quiet efficiency,” said James Draper, CEO of Bidstack

“Over that period we have seen a step change in interest from brands wanting to activate within gaming. We are witnessing average order values increasing significantly and experiencing advertising agencies now including in-game advertising as a component in large media plans. We believe this is a meaningful shift from where the market was 12 months ago.”

“In addition Bidstack is considering a number of new commercial opportunities where our technical offering and insight may be of interest to some global technology led companies.”

“We are at the beginning of a new industry, where brands will continue to explore and invest in ways to activate and protect their IP in and around interactive entertainment.”

“The diligent work of our growing team, the knowledge we have accumulated and the demonstrable acceleration of revenue being run through our products put Bidstack in a strong position to capitalise on this growth.”

Brexit: Shares higher as hopes for deal continue

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Continued Brexit optimism has pushed shares higher on Thursday morning.

The FTSE 100 was pushed up by 23 points to 6594. The FTSE 250 was 0.2% higher in early trading. Stocks also rose off the back of the US Federal Reserve’s announcement and promise to keep interest rates close to zero.

European shares were also off to a positive start this morning, with the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index up 0.5%. European stocks are almost at a 10-month high.

Among the top risers on the FTSE this morning were Anglo American (shares were up 2.8%), Persimmon (up 2.6%) and NatWest bank (up 2.8%).

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx commented on this morning’s rise:

“Some projection improvements from the Federal Reserve, continued optimism regarding US stimulus, and hopes that a last-gasp Brexit deal can still materialise were all factors on Thursday morning.

“Though the Fed left things unchanged policy-wise, its forecasts for this year and the next got a polish – it is now expecting the US economy to contract by 2.4% in 2020, before rebounding by 4.2% in 2021. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, is set to fall back to 5%, not too far off where it was at the start of the year.

“As for fiscal stimulus, Congress is quickly running out of time to get the $908 billion bill passed before Friday evening’s shutdown. Confirmation of the relief package could be the thing the markets need to kick-start a Santa rally heading into Christmas week.

“On the surface, the chances of a Brexit deal were dealt a blow after the announcement of a parliamentary recess from Thursday. However, some have speculated this is just part of the bluster of negotiations, and that MPs could well be recalled if an agreement does materialise in the next few days.”

The pound has also hit new highs today and is at a 31-month high against the US dollar. The pound sterling jumped over half a cent $1.358.

Bitcoin hits record highs

Bitcoin has surged to an all-time high of over $20,000.

The cryptocurrency has surged 400% this year from $3,600 in March and rose 6% on Wednesday alone to hit $20,632 against the US dollar.

The rally in Bitcoin comes after the cryptocurrency reached highs in 2017, hitting close to $20,000. By February it then crashed to $7,000.

There is growing investment in the currency from big investment companies, who are growing more and more attracted to it for quick gains and as a way to safeguard against inflation.

Nigel Green is the chief executive of deVere Group, which is a finance company that operates a bitcoin exchange. Green commented: “They’re being attracted by the good returns that the digital asset class is currently offering but, more importantly, by the huge future potential it offers.

“As some of the world’s biggest institutions – among them multinational payment companies and Wall Street giants – pile ever more into crypto, bringing with them their enormous expertise and capital, this in turn swells consumer interest.”

Despite its growing popularity, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has still warned against its use. He said last year: “I have to be honest, it is hard to see that Bitcoin has what we tend to call intrinsic value. It may have extrinsic value in the sense that people want it.”

He added that he was “very nervous” at the idea of people using Bitcoin as a form of payment.

Gunnar Jaerv, COO of First Digital Trust, said on the currencies rise: “The increase in price is likely a result of major institutional investors joining the bandwagon and purchasing a portion of bitcoin’s limited supply in the midst of a bull run. Bitcoin is no longer the mirage it used to be – it is truly becoming the oasis in the desert.”

Nightcap offered to investors

Drinks-led hospitality group Nightcap is raising money via PrimaryBid ahead of a flotation on AIM. At the same time, London Cocktail Club is being reversed into the business in a deal for an initial £5.7m in cash and shares at the issue price. Further acquisitions are likely so that the group can roll out other drinks-led brands.
The offer price and amount to be raised have not been declared. Nightcap will use some of the money raised to pay the £2.2m cash element of the acquisition and should have money over to finance other acquisitions. The offer closes on 21 September.
The initial 25 milli...

Brexit optimism sees “significant” gains for homebuilders

The FTSE and pound both jumped today on news that there was progress made in the latest Brexit talks.

The FTSE 100 was up by 72 points or 1.1% to 6586 points, whilst the FTSE 250 index jumped 1.4%.

The blue-chip index was pushed up by house builders, which were the top risers on Wednesday, led by Barratt Development (+3.6%) and Persimmon (+3.2%).

“Optimism around Brexit talks have been accompanied by an impressive three-year high in house prices to bring significant gains for the homebuilders,” said Joshua Mahony, Senior Market Analyst at IG.

“UK housebuilders are leading the push higher for UK stocks today, with the latest government statistics highlighting the fastest rate of house price growth since 2017. Nevertheless, while today’s data covers the month of October, the leading RightMove HPI release for December did highlight a 0.6% decline in prices as Brexit and stamp duty holiday worries kick in.

“Nevertheless, the housebuilders remain on a knife edge as things stand, with Q1 performance likely to be driven by the outcome of Brexit talks and subsequent economic fallout.

“While the stamp duty holiday may have brought plenty of buyers to the table, the mental block that Brexit has provided to many means a deal could unlock a whole new source of demand in 2021,” added Mahony.

The stamp duty holiday will come to an end in March and house prices are expected to dip ahead of the deadline.

Since Rishi Sunak introduced the stamp duty holiday over summer, the housing market has seen a boom. As sellers rush ahead of the stamp duty deadline, the property website found a 0.5% fall from October’s average asking price of £323,000.

Rightmove has said that sellers should be more realistic when pricing their houses to ensure they are sold before the end of the deadline.

Trident Royalties Virtual Investor Presentation 15th December

Trident Royalties CEO, Adam Davidson, presents at the UK Investor Magazine Virtual Investor Presentation 15th December.

Trident Royalties Plc (LON:TRR), is a growth-focused diversified mining royalty and streaming company listed on the AIM market. 

Trident is managed by an experienced team of mining finance professionals seeking to provide investors with exposure to a mix of base and precious metals, bulk materials (excluding thermal coal) and battery metals in resource-friendly jurisdictions.

Since floating on London’s Aim a mere 7 months ago, Trident has already completed 5 deals and is cashflow positive.

This sets Trident apart from peers in the mining sector and presents and interesting prospect for the future as the company secures further royalties and builds their asset base.

Download presentation slides here.

Justin Urquhart-Stewart speaks at the UK Investor Magazine Virtual Conference 15th December

Justin Urquhart-Stewart joins the UK Investor Magazine Virtual Presentation for a broad discussion of the most pressing matter to the global economy and financial markets in 2021.

There is of course consideration paid to COVID-19 and Brexit. However, in a world that is now looking past these two historic market themes Justin explores subjects such as the evolution of China’s influence on the global economy and how technology companies in the UK need further support.

In particular, the funding through functioning exchanges is questioned and ideas outlined for ensuring British business can thrive as we emerge from recession.