IWG’s pretax profit triples across 2019, as revenues also surge
Can ‘Boris bounce’ in construction PMIs withstand Brexit & the Coronavirus crunch?
“Following a nine-month period of decline, UK construction companies indicated a return to business activity growth during February, the sharpest rise in new orders since December 2015 and the strongest growth since end of 2018. This is likely due to the anticipated post general election ‘bounce’ and is a welcome boost for the sector.”
The Coronavirus fear pandemic
According to most, the main downside weighing on sentiment the world over, will likely be Coronavirus. It has already been documented that the world’s over-dependence on Chinese manufactured goods has been laid bare by the outbreak of the illness, and the disruption caused to supply chains looks likely to affect the flow of construction materials. This could mean that the current, fragile turnaround in property sector sentiment could be undone sooner rather than later, as companies look to put plans on hold.Echoing this solemn outlook, Kate Kirby continued,
“The question now is around the impact the coronavirus outbreak will have on the global supply chain of construction materials and workforce, which is likely to result in significant delays to projects. With investors speculating the global economy could grow at its slowest rate since 2019 due to the coronavirus outbreak, are we likely to see the same growth reported in the coming months? Probably not.”Brexit bullishness in construction?
According the the IHS Markit survey, building firms said activity began to pick up following the completion of Brexit, which was seen as a source of uncertainty. The greatest rebound came from residential construction, which saw its best performance since July 2018. To me this seems entirely counter-intuitive. Granted, the symbolic Brexit deadline has been passed and we’re one step closer to closing this political chapter, but surely the worst uncertainty is yet to come? Analysis of a potential trade deal with the US has yielded little but a pessimistic outlook for British growth, and with other deals on economic alignments yet to be dreamt up – as well as discussions about the movements of people and goods – I can’t see how there won’t be a dip on the horizon. At the very least, it seems intuitive to me that the time to buy isn’t now. Brexit hasn’t yet thrown its final blow to market sentiment, and I believe it doesn’t take much to say there will be more struggles for the UK in the not-too-distant future, and that’ll be the time to take advantage of shaky sentiment. That being said, we can enjoy these construction PMIs while they last, and encourage buyers to fill their boots.Market recovery hangs in the balance despite Dow Jones mega rally
“There are rallies, and there are rallies – and boy did the Dow Jones RALLY on Monday night, posting its greatest ever points gain on the hopes that the world’s central banks can muster a co-ordinated response to the coronavirus this Tuesday.”
“It is a sign of just how bad the final week of February was that the Dow’s 1,297 point – or 5.1% – increase still leaves it almost 3,000 points off of where it was on Valentine’s Day.”
“Nevertheless, after a weekend full of stimulus-suggesting statements, news that the central bank chiefs and finance ministers of the G7 would be having a conference call to discuss an action plan – like a fiscal version of the Avengers – designed to combat the coronavirus crisis was enough to point the markets in the right direction.”
“It helped that the Reserve Bank of Australia has already given the G7 an example of what they can do, cutting its cash rate by 25 bps to a record low of 0.5%.”
“Following a thoroughly mixed Monday, the European indices shared in the Dow’s optimism, without getting quite as excited – after all, any enthusiasm will have been tempered by the WHO warning the world is in ‘uncharted territory’.”
“The FTSE, which was the best performer in Europe on Monday, added another 2.2%, pushing it back towards 6800. After missing out on yesterday rebound, the DAX rose 270 points to cross 12100, while the CAC added 2% as it neared 5450.”
“The danger, of course, is that if the world’s financial bigwigs fail to announce a coherent, co-ordinated plan of attack – and Reuters is reporting that the draft statement currently being worked on doesn’t call for such action – these gains could unravel double-quick.”
