Pound volatile after general election result

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The British pound had a rocky day on Friday, plunging in the wake of the shock election result before clawing back losses towards the end of trade. The election, which resulted in a hung parliament despite predictions of a strong Conservative win, cause the pound to sink overnight as traders reacted to the results coming in. The currency dropped to its lowest level in six weeks, down 2 percent in early morning trade. Samuel Tombs, the chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, described the exit poll – which predicted that the Conservatives would fail to achieve a majority – as a “thunderbolt”, sending shockwaves across the city. As Friday progressed and Theresa May announced she would hold on to her position as Prime Minister with a minority government and cooperation from the DUP, the pound started to recover. The pound is now currently up 0.14 percent against the dollar and 0.18 percent against the euro.

UK election uncertainty likely to affect housing market

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After a shocking night for British politics, with Theresa May failing to achieve the landslide victory expected, the UK is undoubtedly about to enter a period of uncertainty. Such an extended period of uncertainty is historically unattractive to inward investment, meaning that the UK and London housing markets are likely to be impacted. The weakened position of the Conservative party, in conjunction with a pro ‘soft-border’ DUP, would suggest that the UK will be on course for a softer Brexit. According to investment advisory service London Central Portfolio, this outcome may well be attractive both to institutions considering their position in the City of London and international investors looking at the UK, particularly as global events such as the Trump-Russia affair and continuing destabilisation in the Middle East is causing even greater economic and political flux outside the UK. The diminished threat of Labour implementing aggressive un-costed tax and spend policies will also be welcome both to business and investor sentiment, taking the edge off uncertainty caused by these election results. Significant tax increases targeted at property investors that Labour might also have instituted are now less likely to occur. Whilst sterling has rallied slightly in the early hours of today, it is now between 2 percent and 3 percent down against the dollar and euro from yesterday (as of 9.00am 09/06/17) from an already weak position. This is likely to continue in the current political situation which may encourage more active investors to take advantage of discounted prices in the property and stock market, LCP continued. Nevertheless, it is anticipated that transactions will continue to fall in Prime Central London whilst investors assimilate the new situation, particularly at the luxury end and in the new build sector, already battered through the introduction of new residential taxes. For the domestic housing market, outside Prime Central London, the recent evidence of a downturn by most data analysts, due to concerns over a weakening UK economic position and rising inflation, is unlikely to be reversed in light of the current events.

Paul Nuttall steps down as UKIP leader

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UKIP leader Paul Nuttall has stepped down as party leader, after the party suffered an embarrassing feat in Thursday’s general election. Speaking at his party’s headquarters, Paul Nuttall said it “has been a honour” to head the party. “It is clear UKIP requires a new focus and new ideas,” he said. Before the election results came out, Nuttall criticised May’s decision to call a snap election and said she had put Brexit in danger. “If the exit poll is true then Theresa May has put Brexit in jeopardy,” Mr Nuttall tweeted. “I said at the start this election was wrong. Hubris.” Ukip suffered a collapse in its vote on Thursday, with many people who had backed the party in 2015 and wanted a vote on Brexit voting instead for the Tories or Labour.

Theresa May makes deal with Democratic Unionists

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Theresa May has struck a deal with Northern Irish party Democratic Unionists in order to form a government, after failing to reach a majority with just the Conservatives. May is expected to pay a visit to Buckingham Palace to see the Queen at around 12.30pm to confirm the deal. If the coalition goes ahead, the Conservatives and the DUP will have a majority of three seats. A DUP source said: “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable.” “For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.” The DUP have insisted that they have been close to May’s team since she became prime minister 11 months ago.

M&S executives refuse pay rise as retailer fails to meet targets

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Marks & Spencer have declined to issue a long-term performance bonus this year, after the retail firm missed their targets for the year. However, certain staff members will still receive annual bonuses after chief executive Steve Rowe continued to meet performance goals. In the statement the company confirmed that all executives were offered a 2 percent, which they declined to take. For the year, Rowe made £1.64 million, £810,000 of which was his base salary, far lower than the £975,000 earned by predecessor Mark Bolland. The board’s update comes just two weeks after the retailer published its annual results for 2016, which showed another weak performance.

Marks and Spencer’s profits fell by almost two thirds to £176.4 million last year, with the retailer attributing the decline to weaker clothing sales and higher costs from opening new food stores.

Sales remained flat at £10.6 billion in the year to the end of March 2017.

Japanese GDP figure revised down, but still remains positive

Japanese economic growth was revised down on Thursday, after an unexpected decline in oil inventories and private consumption.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, according to the revised figures, the 0.5 percent initially predicted in last month’s preliminary reading.

The annual growth rate was also revised down, to 1 percent from the initial reading of 2.2 percent. Although the figures are much weaker than initially expected, they still represent growth for the economy for the fifth quarter in a row. The figures come after the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank both raised their projections for Japanese expansion.
The world’s third largest economy has seen rapid improvement over the past year, after several quarters of worrying decline. The Japanese central bank is expected to meet next week and is likely to keep policy unchanged following the latest data.
 

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  2. The levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation are subject to change as UK legislation and regulations and the UK tax regime are amended from time to time and any content on this site referring to such legislation, regulations or tax regime should not be relied upon.
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FTSE 100 up and pound holds steady, ahead of Thursday’s election

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The pound is holding steady and the FTSE 100 is trading up, as the UK enters the final day of campaigning ahead of Thursday’s general election. After a rocky start to the morning, pushed down by miners including Antofagasta and BHP Billiton, the FTSE 100 is currently up 0.28 percent (1115GMT) on strong performances form banking shares including Lloyds and RBS. The pound is also holding steady this morning, trading 0.04 percent lower against the dollar at $1.29050. Investors are remaining confident ahead of Britain going to the polls on Thursday, but a hard-fought election could create volatility for the markets on Friday. Neil Wilson, analyst at ETX Capital, told the BBC that a hung parliament could be bad news for investors: “If Theresa May increases her majority the pound ought to rise as part of a broader relief rally in UK assets,” he says. “But if it’s a hung parliament, the pound is likely to plunge on increased political risk and a possible delay to Brexit negotiations.”

Global economy growing at faster pace than initially expected – OECD

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The global economy is set to see its fastest pace of growth in six years despite a slowdown in the US and Brexit fears, according to think tank OECD.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development raised their growth expectation to 3.5 percent this year, its strongest estimate since 2011. Growth is then forecast to rise to 3.6 percent in 2018.

The latest figure represents an increase on the 3.3 percent estimate given in March, boosted by an improvement in trade and investment flows offsetting a weaker outlook in the US. Forecasts for the UK’s growth remained the same, at 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1 percent in 2018. It added that growth in the UK was likely to slow heavily in the upcoming years, as uncertainty from Brexit negotiations begins to impact the economy.