Lloyds shares: investors must contend with further pressure amid tax raid speculation

Lloyds shares were higher on Thursday after falling in the prior session, as investors considered the merits of holding the UK bank’s shares near 52-week highs.

In an article recently published by the UK Investor Magazine, we explained that the end of rising interest rates made the UK banking sector less attractive, and key profitability metrics are set to come under pressure in the coming periods.

Lower interest rates will ultimately result in lower net interest margins and lower income for banks unless they experience a material increase in lending activity, which doesn’t seem likely.

However, Lloyds investors now have a fresh threat to the share price—the new Labour government. 

Keir Starmer has made it clear he and Rachel Reeves will announce plans for a tax raid in the upcoming budget, and banks are in the firing line. 

Along with speculation around changes to inheritance tax and capital gains tax, Labour are thought to be eyeing up banking profits to boost the public coffers.

As Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell, explains, banks are easy targets for the treasury, as they can generate billions in extra tax receipts with little public backlash.

“Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have made it perfectly clear they will leave no stone unturned in the search to find ways to boost public finances. That also means being creative with where they impose tax and it seems the banking sector could be in their sights,” Dan Coatsworth said.

“It’s about as easy a target as you can get. No-one is going to shed any tears if the banks are forced to hand over more of their profits.

“Banks have made big money from higher interest rates, profiting when the rest of the country has struggled through a cost-of-living crisis. If the oil and gas industry can be slapped with a windfall tax as a result of a spike in energy prices, so can the banks as a result of higher rates.”

The double whammy of falling interest rates impacting the top line and additional taxes eroding what’s left on the bottom line must be carefully considered by Lloyds investors.

Tekcapital’s Innovative Eyewear secures Target.com listing

In a significant move to broaden its market presence, Tekcapital portfolio company Innovative Eyewear (NASDAQ:LUCY) has announced the availability of its Lucyd Lyte frames on Target.com.

Tekcapital has made a number of announcements regarding developments for Innovative Eyewear in 2024; today’s may just be the most important one, both in terms of potential revenue generation and the delivery on Innovative Eyewear’s strategy to focus distribution through retail outlets.

The partnership with Target.com brings Lucyd ChatGPT-enabled smart eyewear to one of the largest retail platforms in the United States. Target Corporation, with its vast network of nearly 2,000 stores across the country and a robust online presence, serves millions of US customers daily.

By securing a place on Target.com, Innovative Eyewear gains access to a massive customer base, potentially exposing its smart eyewear products to millions of new consumers nationwide.

“Target is a long-time favourite retailer of mine, as well as millions of loyal customers in the US,” said Harrison Gross, CEO of Innovative Eyewear

“Their focus on product quality, style and accessibility makes Target.com an ideal channel partner for our smart frames. We look forward to upgrading Target guests’ eyewear.”

Innovative Eyewear, which develops and retails smart eyewear under well-known brands such as Lucyd®, Nautica®, Eddie Bauer®, and very shortly, Reebok®, has achieved a step-change in revenue generation this year.

The company has outlined a growth strategy to focus on retail distribution in order to reach millions of consumers. Securing a listing on Target.com does just that.

Nvidia shares sink despite earnings beating estimates

Nvidia shares were down in the US premarket after the company reported eagerly anticipated quarterly earnings overnight. 

In many respects, Nvidia was set up to fail going into results. Simply beating analyst earnings expectations is not enough for Nvidia. Their importance to the AI trade means markets want to see the chip maker smash estimates by many billions, even if they doubled revenue compared to a year ago. 

“The most important earnings release in the entire history of the world – at least if you believe the hype beforehand – saw NVDA deliver both top- and bottom-line beats, coupled with better-than-expected third quarter guidance, as well as promising news on the delivery of the new ‘Blackwell’ chip,” said Michael Brown Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.

“While those at Nvidia earnings watch parties (bubble sign, perhaps!?) would’ve been pleased with the earnings slate, market participants appeared rather disappointed, with NVDA ending the after-hours session 7% softer, having failed to meet what, in hindsight, was an impossibly high bar that investors had set.”

The sharp ascent in the share price over the past two years means the investors are ultra-sensitive to any suggestion of a slowdown in momentum.

Nvidia trades at an earnings multiple considered to be rich compared to historical averages. With such a high valuation, earnings have to run higher faster just for Nvidia shares to stand still.

That said, there weren’t any major concerns with last night’s report and today’s drop is likely a round a profit taking after a meteoric rise in the stock.

“Revenue jumped 122% year-over-year to $30.04 billion, and its data centre revenue grew 154% to $26.3 billion, both smashing through estimates. Nvidia also announced an additional $50 billion buyback program, signalling its confidence in what’s ahead after ending the quarter with a massive cash balance of $34.8 billion,” Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at investment platform eToro summarised.

As well as recent finanical performance, Nvidia provided insight into the rollout of its new Blackwell chips, saying it will sell billions of dollars in the coming periods. In addition, investors would have been encouraged to hear the Nvidia CEO in his traditionally bullish mood on last night’s earnings call, highlighting robust demand from the world’s largest tech companies.   

“The market may be disappointed not to see a bigger beat on its outlook given what is now almost unattainable expectations, but the bottom line here is that the long-term story remains intact, demand remains huge and the Juggernaut that is Nvidia rolls on,“ Gilbert said.

hVIVO – Foundations Laid For Strong Performance In The Months And Years Ahead, Institutions Building Up Stakes Ahead Of Interims 

Next Monday, 2nd September, will see hVIVO (LON:HVO) cancelling dealing of its shares on the Euronext Growth Market. 

This is quite a sensible move by the £200m capitalised contract research group, it will consolidate trading of its stock into its primary AIM listing, especially as the company’s main operations, the majority of its employees, as well as most of its investor base are all in the UK. 

Just imagine all of the associated costs and duplication of activities involved with maintaining its dual listings, a big chunk of which will now be removed. 

The Business  

Based in the UK, the company is engaged in pioneering a technology platform of human disease models to accelerate drug discovery and in respiratory and infectious diseases, including flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), asthma and common cold. 

It considers that it is the world leader in testing infectious and respiratory disease vaccines and therapeutics using human challenge clinical trials.  

It provides end-to-end early clinical development services to its large, established and growing repeat client base, which includes four of the top 10 largest global biopharma companies. 

Its fast-growing services business includes a unique portfolio of 11 human challenge models, with a number of new models under development, to test a broad range of infectious and respiratory disease products.  

The company has world-class challenge agent manufacturing capabilities, specialist drug development and clinical consultancy services via its Venn Life Sciences brand, and a lab offering via its hLAB brand, which includes virology, immunology biomarker and molecular testing.  

The group also offers additional clinical field trial services such as patient recruitment and clinical trial site services by recruiting volunteers / patients for its studies by via its FluCamp volunteer screening facilities in London and Manchester. 

hVIVO runs challenge trials in London – its new state-of-the-art facilities in Canary Wharf opened earlier this year and is the world’s largest commercial human challenge trial unit, with highly specialised on-site virology and immunology laboratories, and an outpatient unit.  

Recent Trading Update 

In mid-July the company reported that it expects to show first half revenues of £35.6m representing 30.6% revenue growth on H1 2023.  

That increase was driven by exceptional operational delivery across the group, particularly with a record number of volunteer inoculations across multiple studies and a variety of challenge models running simultaneously.   

CEO Mo Khan stated that: 

“The results of H1 2024 reflect the hard work, flexibility and commitment of the team.  

During a period of significant activity including the build-out and move to a new facility, we have not only materially increased our revenue but also further improved our margins.  

The concurrent running of three different facilities helped to boost our revenues for H1 2024, creating an expected H1 2024 weighting. 

We have full visibility over our expected 2024 revenues and continue to deliver on our sustainable growth strategy.  

The orderbook remains strong in spite of record revenue delivery in H1 2024.  

The recent Omicron characterisation study contract and the award of our largest field study to date are two key sales highlights for H1 2024. 

In addition, the current sales pipeline includes several advanced stage opportunities that we expect to convert in the coming months.   

The outlook for hVIVO is positive as we welcomed our first volunteers into our new facility at Canary Wharf – the world’s largest human challenge trial unit.  

I believe we have laid the foundations for strong performance in the months and years ahead.” 

Analyst View 

At Cavendish Capital Markets, its analysts Stuart Harris and Chris Donnellan approve of the Euronext quote being cancelled, appreciating the cost savings. 

Ahead of the company declaring its results for the six months to the end of June, due on Tuesday 10th September, the analysts are giving a 42p Price Objective on the group’s shares. 

The are estimating that the current year to end December will show revenues up to £62.0m (£56.0m), while its adjusted pre-tax profits could rise to £12.2m (£11.9m), lifting its earnings up to 1.4p (1.3p) and paying a 0.2p per share dividend. 

Jumping forward into 2025 they foresee £67.4m sales, £12.9m profits, 1.6p earnings and maintaining the 0.2p dividend. 

In My View 

I like the way that Mo Khan and his team have obviously impressed a number of the City investing institutions. 

Fund manager Neil Hermon, the Janus Henderson fund manager, has recently added a wad of the group’s shares into the Henderson Smaller Companies Trust, he considers that Hvivo offered a relatively cheap and effective way to undertake accelerated drug development. 

“The barriers to entry in this niche industry are high as the proprietary datasets about viral loads can only be built through experience.  

The business is focussed on both organic growth, through the development of ancillary services, and inorganic growth. 

Management has set ambitious medium-term revenue and margin targets and our investment gives us exposure to structural growth in this niche market.” 

Earlier this year I was interested to note the gradual way that JP Morgan Asset Management built up its 7.04% stake in the group. 

Then at the start of July, Octopus Investments bought another 1m shares, to add to its holding of 20,175,000 shares, taking it through the declarable 3% level, up to 3.10%. 

11 days later it was up to 30,054,020 shares, representing 4.42% of the equity. 

After another 7 days it was up to 51,804,020 shares (7.61%). 

And it continued with another purchase on Monday 5th August, pushing it up to 54,438,725 shares, a neat 8.0% holding. 

In my view patient investors should be adding HVO shares, now 29p, to their growth portfolios. 

PRS REIT served EGM requisition by investors

A group of investors in the PRS REIT, representing 17.3% of the company’s issued share capital, has formally served a requisition to the company.

The PRS REIT invests in new build, family homes in the private rented sector and has a portfolio of just over 5,300 homes.

Seeking changes to the board of directors, they are proposing the immediate removal of Stephen Smith, the Non-Executive Chairman, and Steffan Francis, a Non-Executive Director. In their place, the investors propose the appointment of Robert Naylor and Christopher Mills.

The requisitioning investors have expressed their intention for the newly appointed directors, if successful, to collaborate with the existing board members. Their primary objective would be to conduct a comprehensive review of options aimed at enhancing shareholder value.

Despite the Real Estate Investment Trust’s shares rising 3% so far in 2024, it still trades at a 27% discount to Net Asset Value.

The group of investors includes Waverton Investment Management Limited, CCLA Investment Management Limited, Alder Investment Management Limited, CG Asset Management Limited, and Harwood Capital Management Limited.

Notably, Christopher Mills, one of the proposed new directors, holds the position of ultimate majority shareholder in Harwood Capital Management Limited who made the announcement on Thursday.

The requisition comes shortly after the MIGO Investment Trust added PRS to their portfolio. MIGO are a ‘trust of trusts’, specialist in identifying undervalued investment trusts.

FTSE 100 steady ahead of Nvidia results

The FTSE 100 was in full-blown wait-and-see mode on Wednesday as investors prepared for Nvidia earnings after the US bell.

Nvidia’s remarkable dominance in the chips supply to fuel the AI boom has made it the ultimate bellwether for the AI theme, which has been responsible for much of the US equity rally since the beginning of 2023.

For investors, the outcome of tonight’s earnings is almost binary. If Nvidia misses earnings expectations, or only just meets expectations, global equities are likely to come under significant pressure. A beat of earnings expectations will signal the AI trade is still intact and will likely send stocks higher.

Given the potential for large, unpredictable swings later today, its understandable investors held off making big bets on Wednesday and the FTSE 100 was down 0.1% at the time of writing.

“Naturally, NVDA earnings after the close hold the key to the near-term direction for global equities, and risk appetite, coming at a time when risks around the AI theme appear to become more equally-balanced and, of course, with the S&P just inches away from a fresh record high,” explained Michael Brown Senior Research Strategist at Pepperstone.

“Derivatives price a punchy +/- 9.7% swing in NVDA stock in the 24 hours following the quarterly report, equivalent to a staggering $280bln worth of market cap in either direction. As has been the case for the entirety of earnings season, strong guidance will need to accompany revenue and EPS beats in order to unlock significant after-market gains.”

Although the FTSE 100 has very little in the way of direct exposure to Generative AI, investor sentiment will be driven by this evenings results. However, as we’ve seen in recent weeks, London’s leading index may experience a smoother ride to the upside or downside due to the defensive composition of the index.

The index’s defensive nature has again been evident this week, with the FTSE 100 holding above 8,300, supported by oil stocks amid rising tensions in the Middle East. 

There was little in the way of standout movers on Wednesday. Prudential was a notable gainer after announcing half-year results. Shares in the Asia-focused company rose 1% on the announcment of rising new business profits, but falling operating profits.

“Prudential’s big pivot to Asia over the last decade, which culminated in the shedding of its US and European operations in 2021, isn’t playing out as the company would have hoped,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

“The insurance giant went to less mature markets in the pursuit of growth, betting on an emergent middle class having increased appetite for financial products and services, but in key geographies like mainland China and Hong Kong, that growth is proving elusive. Zero-Covid policies didn’t help and the subsequent uncertain recovery in the Chinese economy has only compounded things.”

Despite slow progress in China, Prudential increased in dividend and said it has seen sales momentum pick up after June.

AIM movers: Naked Wines cash improves and Focusrite shipping costs rise

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Wine supplier Naked Wines (LON: WINE) reported a 13% annualised dip in revenues to £290m, while underlying operating profit fell by two-thirds to £5m. That was before a £13m inventory provision. The company is still surplus stocks. Net cash was better than guidance and doubled to £19.6m. First quarter trading is in line with expectations. Guidance for 2024-25 indicates revenues of £240m-£270m and operating profit before inventory losses of £3m-£8m. Dominic Neary has been appointed finance director. The share price increased 7.75% to 54.95p.

Sunda Energy (LON: SNDA) has submitted applications for two offshore licence areas in the Philippines. These contain three gas discoveries from the 13 wells that have been drilled by ExxonMobil. Sunda Energy is part of a joint venture, where it has a 37.5% non-operated stake. The winners of the bids are expected to be announced by the end of 2024. The share price rose 3.85% to 0.0675p.

Rome Resources (LON: RMR) says that the second drillhole at the Kalayi prospect in North Kivu province, DRC has intersected tin mineralisation. Assay information will confirm grades. The next drillhole will be where a cassiterite vein has been encountered. The share price improved 3.51% to 0.295p.

Beowulf Mining (LON: BEM) says testing of the proposed processing plant shows potential to recover more than 90% of NaOH that can be used for battery grade graphite production. By-product lime could be used to neutralise acidic wastewater. The graphite anode materials plant will be in Finland. The share price is 2.33% higher at 22p.

FALLERS

Audio equipment supplier Focusrite (LON: TUNE) says full year revenues will be around £157m, but EBITDA will be lower than expected at around £25m (£27.1m was previously expected) because of higher shipping and logistics costs. Shipping costs are continuing to rise and promotional spending remains at high levels. New products have been launched, but a major distributor has been cutting stock levels. Net debt has fallen to £15m. The final results will be published in late November. The share price slumped 17.5% to 287p.

Exchange services provider Aquis Exchange (LON: AQX) has been hit by one technology contract not being renewed, because of the client’s trading problems. That will knock £1m off revenues and pre-tax profit in 2024. The other parts of the group all grew revenues in the first half. Aquis Markets share of market trading has risen to 5.2%. Canaccord Genuity has cut its 2024 pre-tax profit forecast from £6.3m to £4.9m with the rest of the shortfall due to increased investment. The interims will be published on 12 September. The share price slipped 16.1% to 400p.

Tertiary Minerals (LON: TYM) raised £880,000 at 0.08p/share. This will fund exploration at Zambian copper targets, Mushima North and Jacks, which is near to the Chambishi project where production is being raised. Six targets have been identified at Mushima North. The share price declined 15% to 0.085p.

Drilling news from the Hizarliyayla area of the Salinbras project, where Ariana Resources (LON: AAU) has a 23.5% stake, shows geological similarities to the nearby Hot Maden gold and copper discovery. The drilling indicates significant grades of gold, silver and zinc. The share price fell 5.81% to 2.025p.

Condor Gold – The Sell-Off Of Its La India Gold Project In Nicaragua Is Getting Very Close And Aided By Soaring Gold Price 

Only capitalised at just £48.3m, the shares of Condor Gold (LON:CNR and TSX:COG) could well be in for an early uplift in price. 

Analysts at its broker, SP Angel, currently have a valuation out on the group’s shares of 97p, which is some four times its 23.5p market price

The Business 

It is a gold exploration and development company with a focus on Nicaragua, where its principal asset is the La India Project, which is a large, highly prospective land package of 588 sq.km comprising of 12 contiguous and adjacent concessions. 

La India For Sale 

Almost two years ago, in late November 2022, the company announced that following a robust and economically attractive Feasibility Study on the La India open pit, it had appointed Hannam and Partners to seek a buyer for the assets of the company.  

In mid-May this year the company issued an Update on the Sale of its Assets. 

It stated that, as at 16th May 2024, eight companies were under Non-Disclosure Agreements, five non-binding offers having been received and three site visits completed.  

The company went on to note that although none of the non-binding offers had progressed to firm proposals at that date, it was in advanced discussions with one gold producer, while two other parties were actively reviewing the company’s assets.  

A further Update on the potential was issued at the end of last month, with the company reporting that there were eleven companies under NDA’s, with it having received five non-binding offers, while three site visits had been completed.  

In addition, it had also received an additional formal expression of interest in July. 

Chairman and largest shareholder, with 26.1% of the group’s equity, Jim Mellon stated that: 

“There remains substantial interest from gold producers to acquire the Company’s assets.  

Wholly owned, fully permitted, construction ready gold mines with potential production of 150,000 oz gold per annum, in major Gold Districts, with the land and a new SAG Mill package purchased and a construction period of only 18 months are rare.  

There are currently eleven companies under NDAs, five non-binding offers received and three site visits completed.  

Whilst discussions have ceased with one gold producer previously referred to, the Company is now focused on active discussions with three other gold producers, one of which we consider the preferred bidder.  

Companies under NDAs have access to a virtual data room, which includes all drill data, technical studies to Feasibility Study level, details of permits to construct and operate a mine and financial models.  

While the sales process is taking longer than anticipated, new enquires continue to be received.  

Record gold prices of over US$2,400 oz gold in recent weeks compared to a US$1,600 oz gold price used in the Feasibility Study, materially improves project economics.  

The Board remains confident that a binding agreement can be reached and Investors will be updated in due course.  

Meanwhile, the entire Board, including the executive, will continue to give their full attention to obtaining the best outcome possible for all investors.” 

Analyst’s View 

At SP Angel, the company’s broker, a trio of its analysts – John Meyer, Simon Beardsmore and Sergey Raevskiy – note that the company is advancing the sale process for its advanced stage, 2.3m oz La India gold project in Nicaragua and the surrounding exploration areas.  

The 2022 feasibility study describes development of an open pit mine at La India as the first phase of development producing approximately 82,000oz pa of gold.   

Expansion through the subsequent development of already permitted satellite pits and of underground mining has the potential to increase output to around 150,000oz pa. 

 A completed feasibility study and in-place development permits provides a successful acquirer with an opportunity for rapid development of an advanced gold project with expansion potential and further exploration prospects.  

The analysts state that using SP Angel’s long-term gold price forecast of $2,450/oz, they estimate that the NPV10% of Condor Gold’s planned initial development of an open pit mine on the La India vein at around $287m, which would be equivalent to 97p a share. 

In My View 

The recent strong rise in the price of gold provides an excellent backdrop for investors to perceive the value of Condor Gold’s shares. 

The potential sale process has taken some time, but it does feel as though it is coming closer to a conclusion, which could really push upwards the group’s value. 

The shares were up to 37p on 7th May this year, before drifting back and stabilising now at around the 23.5p level. 

With so many interested parties, combined with the yellow metal’s soaring value, I do feel it would be wrong to dismiss what could well be a dramatic potential uplift when any offers come to fruition. 

House prices rise as buyers return to market, but sellers shouldn’t get too excited – Zoopla data

The number of homes for sale in the UK is soaring, according to the latest data from Zoopla. Average house prices are up 1.4% so far this year, helping lift UK house sales and encouraging sellers to put their properties on the market.

A cut to interest rates and improving affordability are behind the raft of sellers putting their homes up for sale. Zoopla data showed estate agents had an average of 33 properties for sale – the highest for seven years.

Sales agreed are up 23% over the past year, but data shows that 20% of sellers have to drop their prices to achieve a sale.

“Sellers can’t afford to get carried away. Buyers are back, with demand up a fifth in a year, but sellers who get cocky, and price their home too optimistically, will pay a horrible price for their over-confidence,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance, Hargreaves Lansdown.

“Sellers who end up having to cut their asking price by 5% or more take more than twice as long to sell – which for new sellers would mean squandering the back-to-school September market.

“There’s plenty to cheer in this data, with house prices up 1.4% since the beginning of the year, buyer demand booming and more sales being agreed. The Bank of England interest rate cut has boosted sentiment significantly, and helped persuade buyers that now is a decent time to get stuck in.

“It didn’t have a dramatic overnight impact on average mortgage rates, but they’ve continued drifting southwards, and the fact they’ve been falling for a couple of months is starting to really add up. Moneyfacts figures show that the average rate on a 2-year fixed-rate deal has dropped from 5.97% at the end of June to 5.58% now.”

Helix Exploration encounters elevated hydrogen levels in Montana

Helix Exploration has announced the successful completion of drilling operations at its Clink #1 well in the Ingomar Dome Project.

The drilling reached its Target Depth of 8,030 feet ahead of schedule and under budget. During the drilling process, the company encountered elevated levels of helium in the drilling muds throughout the entire sedimentary column.

This discovery provides strong evidence for the presence of helium across all targets, reinforcing the potential of the Ingomar Dome Project as a viable helium source.

Investors will be pleased to learn Helix Exploration detected significantly elevated hydrogen levels in the drilling muds, particularly within the Cambrian strata. Hydrogen concentrations reached as high as 103,000 parts per million (10.3% H2), indicating the presence of a substantial hydrogen system in these ancient rock layers.

The company is now preparing to commence wireline logging and extended flow testing to further assess the concentrations of both helium and hydrogen.

These upcoming appraisal activities will be crucial in determining the commercial viability of the discovered resources and could potentially position Helix Exploration at the forefront of both helium and hydrogen production in Montana.

“We are delighted to report the safe and successful completion of the drilling of our maiden exploration well at Clink #1 delivered ahead of time and below budget. Drill operations took 11 days from spud to Target Depth, completing well ahead of the 2-3 week guidance provided,” said Bo Sears, CEO of Helix Exploration.

“We are highly encouraged by anomalous helium identified in all target strata, indicating that we have elevated levels of helium throughout the sedimentary column. Additionally, the discovery of anomalously high hydrogen shows within Cambrian strata is a welcome development. A number of highly elevated readings up to 103,000ppm (10.3%) suggest a significant level of hydrogen in the lower part of the system. This will need to be fully investigated before any conclusions on economic potential can be drawn.

“We are now moving directly onto preparing the well for wireline logging and appraisal via extended flow testing and will keep the market updated as we learn more about the helium and hydrogen system identified in mud-shows at the Ingomar Dome Project.”