FTSE 100 retreats as US election results digested, inflation data eyed

The FTSE 100 moved tentatively to the downside as investors digested results of the US midterm elections and enthusiasm around oil and China subsided.

US election results were still coming in at lunchtime on Wednesday with the chances of a big win for Republicans looking unlikely. If Biden loses either the House or Senate, it will make it extremely difficult to push his agenda through and render him powerless.

“The red wave promised overnight turned out to be more of a pinkish swell with the result of crucial midterm elections still in the balance as trading began in the UK on Wednesday morning,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“Amid the uncertainty the FTSE 100 was modestly lower. A continuing slide in oil prices, as initial excitement about a reopening of the Chinese economy has waned, helping to put energy stocks under continued pressure.”

Shell and BP were down 1.5% and 0.2% respectively dragging on the index.

Mould went on to highlight it is not what is happening today, but what might happen tomorrow with US inflation, as the biggest driver of markets on Wednesday.

“What might have greater impact on markets than the latest political ructions across the Atlantic are the inflation figures due out in the US tomorrow as traders play their usual game of trying to guess when the Fed might finally pivot away from rate rises,” said Mould.

AIM movers: Vela Technologies benefits from Conduit Pharma reversal and PCF closes bank

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Vela Technologies (LON: VELA) has risen on the back of the announcement that Conduit Pharmaceuticals is reversing into Nasdaq-listed Murphy Cannon Acquisition Corp. This will provide nearly $150m of funding for Conduit. Vela has an economic interest in AZD1656, one of the assets of Conduit. The Vela share price jumped 54.1% to 0.0285p.

Velocity Composites (LON: VEL) has appointed Adam Holden as finance director. Shares in the composite material kits supplier improved 5.26% to 30p.

Digital publisher LBG Media (LON: LBG) chief executive Alexander Solomou bought 900,000 shares at 51p each. The share price increased 8.58% to 57.005p. He owns nearly 42% of LBG Media, which joined AIM in December 2021 via a placing at 175p.

Gunsynd (LON: GUN) investee company Rincon Resources says a preliminary report highlights similarities between its Pokali prospect and a nearby niobium rare earth discovery. The Gunsynd share price rose 5.88% to 0.45p.

Horizonte Minerals (LON: HZM) completed its £70.5m fundraising at 90.5p a share yesterday. G10 Capital holds 23.2% and Glencore International increased its stake from 9.8% to 17.8%. The share price recovered 5.78% to 91.5p.

PCF Group (LON: PCF) has been unable to raise money or secure a strategic transaction. PCF Bank is withdrawing from the UK banking market. The board will seek shareholder approval for the cancellation of the AIM quotation. The share price slumped 68.9% to 0.35p.

After the close on Tuesday, Sareum (LON: SAR) said the UK authorities have not approved the SDC-1801 clinical trial authorisation. A further review of non-clinical is likely to be required so the safety and tolerability trial will not happen this year. The shares fell 23.2% to 107.5p.

Applied Graphene Materials (LON: AGM) continues to decline following yesterday’s announcement that it was unable to getaway a share issue to replenish its coffers. There was a further fall of 14.1% to 5.5p. More cash will be required by the graphene technology developer at the beginning of 2023.

Ashtead Technology (LON: AT.) shares fell following a placing of 4.79 million existing shares at 260p a share. The current share price fell 5.4% to 288.5p. The seller is Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation, which still owns 9.5%. The subsea equipment rental company floated nearly one year ago at 162p a share.

Battery technology developer Gelion (LON: GELN) has appointed its third chief executive since floating last November. John Wood has experience in the battery technology sector. There was cash of £17m at the end of June 2022, down from £20.6m six months earlier. The flotation price was 145p, while the current price fell 9.23% to 59p.

Next buys Made.com assets for £3.4m

The economic conditions and cost of living crisis has claimed a notable scalp in Made.com who today entered administration, only for Next to step in and buy the assets and IP for £3.4m.

As Warren Buffet said, “it’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.”

This is unfortunately true of Made.com. The company were racking up losses as orders fell and payables mounted. An attempt to find a buyer for the business failed and the company was forced to suspend shares and call in the administrators.

Next had been widely expected to buy Made.com and have executed a deft swoop on the assets.

“The deal shows that there was nothing wrong with the proposition as such, just the way the business was run,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“As Made.com CEO Nicola Thompson observed in a candid statement that the company could not survive in a world where there wasn’t stable demand, low inflation, and a cost-efficient global supply chain.”

“Next has the scale, experience and retail savvy to adapt to changing economic circumstances and it has done so successfully in the past, suggesting it can turn Made.com into a successful and lucrative brand.”

Vertu Motors in talks to buy Helston Garages

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Motor dealer Vertu Motors (LON: VTU) is in talks to acquire Helston Garages Group Ltd. This would be funded by debt. The controlling party of the company is the executors of the estates of former directors David Stanley Carr and Betty Vera Carr.

Helston Garages is based in south west England and it focuses on premium automotive marques. It has 37 dealerships, plus two used car sites. There are five dealerships for BMW, Peugeot and Volvo. Other manufacturers include Land Rover, Mini, Skoda and Jaguar.

In 2021, revenues were £626.7m, which is slightly lower than the £643.4m generated in 2019, although gross profit was higher at £43.5m. It will probably be difficult to maintain that profit level because of the bumper used car profit. Pre-tax profit was £30.4m, compared with £12.9m in 2019.  

Net cash was £10.8m at the end of 2021 and NAV was £136.2m.

Aviva shares slip despite maintaining dividend guidance after strong period

Aviva share slipped on Wednesday despite reporting a very respectable set of results for the first nine months of 2022.

New business across Aviva insurance business was robust with UK&I Life new business rising 46% and gross premium in General Insurance up 10%.

However, the investment and wealth business did see some weakness due to a challenging environment for their platform business.

The investment business may see further challenges going forward which could be the driver behind Aviva share’s 2% dip in early trade on Wednesday.

Any downside in Aviva shares might perhaps get the attention of income investors given Aviva said they didn’t see any need to alter their 32.5p dividend guidance for 2023. With Aviva shares at 424p, the delivery of the 32.5p would mean Aviva has a 7.6% yield.

“Trading is positive and our performance is consistently strong. We have had a good nine months due to our market leading positions, our customer focus and the clear benefits of Aviva’s diversified business across insurance, wealth and retirement,” said Amanda Blanc, Group Chief Executive Officer.

“Our customers have continued to save for their future and protect what is valuable to them. Flows in our Wealth business were encouraging and general insurance volumes continue to grow, especially in commercial lines. Profitability also remains robust across both life and general insurance.”

ITV’s content business outshines advertising as group revenue rises

ITV’s two clearly defined business have had differing fortunes so far in 2022 while group revenue climbed in the nine months to 30th September.

A theme has been building among businesses reliant on advertising and ITV provided further evidence advertising spend was suffering as economic conditions became ever uncertain.

However, while ITV’s ad revenue has declined so far in 2022, total advertising was only 2% weaker at £1.3bn in the nine month period, making ITV share’s 6% drop today seem a bit of an overreaction.

ITV’s group total external revenue rose 6% to £2.5bn helped by strong performance in the ITV Studios business.

ITV’s advertising business is described as resilient by both the company and analysts, and ITV’s content business is becoming the jewel in ITV’s crown.

Non-advertising revenue in the period has exceeded advertising revenue for the second year in a row and raised questions about whether the ITV Studios business is better suited as a stand alone business. This may be reason for today’s fall in ITV’s shares.

“ITV has put in a resilient showing over the first nine months of the year. The shining light comes from the Studios business, where the group’s content-creation powerhouse is growing ahead of the wider sector,” said Sophie Lund-Yates, Equity Analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

“This industry is facing structural tailwinds, and these are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. There are questions swirling about a potential breakup of ITV into its two separate parts, but doing this would leave the more troubling area of the business highly exposed.

Taylor Wimpey feels the pressure of slowing housing market

Taylor Wimpey followed in Persimmon’s footsteps on Wednesday in releasing a trading statement punctuated by falling sales rates and deterioration in key metrics.

Anyone that read our summary of Persimmon’s update yesterday may feel elements of Taylor Wimpey’s release have been copy and pasted over.

Taylor Wimpey net private sales rates per outlet fell to 0.74 year-to-date from 0.95 in 2021 while the sales rate sank to 0.51 in the most recent half year.

Cancellation rates rose and the number of homes in their order book fell.

Despite the worrying metrics, Taylor Wimpey shares were marginally positive on Wednesday morning after suffering on Tuesday in sympathy with Persimmon’s update.

“In a challenging economic and political backdrop we are performing well and are on track to deliver full year operating profit* in line with market expectations,” said Jennie Daly, CEO at Taylor Wimpey.

“While sales rates have been impacted by wider economic uncertainty, we continue to see good levels of customer interest in our homes and a desire to get onto or move up the housing ladder.”

The desire to move up the house ladder may well be there, but the ability for homeowners to do so is diminishing. Rising mortgage rates is putting pressure on affordability at a time householders are facing soaring energy bills.

Despite the short term concerns at Taylor Wimpey, the long terms their fundamentals are supportive. Notwithstanding the challenging environment this winter, Taylor Wimpey has a solid landbank and the long term shortage of UK housing will ensure demand long into the future.

Marks Electrical’s strong start to the second half

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Marks Electrical (LON: MRK) has been one of the better performers on AIM since the beginning of October. Trading continued to improve in October and the early days of November. The interims were published just over one year after Marks Electrical joined AIM via a placing at 110p.

Market share is growing as brand awareness improves. Energy efficient appliances are in demand.

The launch of in-house installation services will add to the level of service offered by Marks Electrical. Ten new installation vehicles and 12 delivery vehicles have been ordered and should be in service by next year.

The online electricals retailer has already flagged the interims. In the six months to September 2022, revenues were 15% ahead at £43.1m. Underlying pre-tax profit improved from £2.07m to £2.22m. Earnings per share fell because of the additional shares in issue following last year’s flotation.

The interim dividend is 0.3p a share. Net cash was £7.7m at the end of September 2022. That could increase to £8.5m until the end of the year.

A full year pre-tax profit of £8m is forecast, which means that, at 72.5p, the shares are trading on 13 times prospective earnings and the forecast yield is 1.5%.

Zoo Digital moves into profit

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Zoo Digital (LON: ZOO) made its maiden interim profit and was highly cash generative. The cloud-based localisation and digital media services provider to the entertainment sector nearly doubled revenues in the first half and there is a strong order book. Zoo Digital could even get near to its medium-term revenues target of $100m this year.

Clients are major film and TV production and streaming businesses. Management estimates that it has around 4% of its addressable market, which is growing at 7.5% a year.

In the six months to September 2022, revenues were 91% higher at $51.4m and the company swung from a loss of $1.5m to a pre-tax profit of $3.5m. Costs are increasing as more staff are employed, but the greater scale is improving margins.

The fastest growth was in localisation. Last year, mainly back catalogue content was being dubbed and subtitled so that it can be sold in additional countries. This year new productions of TV programmes and films are no longer hampered by lockdown restrictions and that was behind the rapid growth. This content is important for streaming services to retain customers.

Operations in India and South Korea are fully integrated, and a site in south India will be added in the second half with potential for other international expansion. That will help to grow the market share.

Investment for the future

Capital spending is being increased in order to build capacity for future growth. The long-term strategy is to achieve revenues of $400m by 2030.

Higher depreciation and tax charges mean earnings forecasts are trimmed. There had already been an upgrade a few weeks ago. Earnings of 6.1 cents a share are forecast for this year, rising to 10.8 cents a share next year.

The share price rose 0.5p to 169p, which is equivalent to 32 times prospective earnings, falling to 18 next year. Zoo Digital has built a good base from which it can grow rapidly by adding services and increasing its presence in international markets.  

FTSE 100 underperforms Europe ahead of US elections, Persimmon shares sink

The FTSE 100 underperformed Europe on Tuesday ahead of the results of US midterm elections that could render Biden’s administration powerless.

The vote is in effect a referendum on the current government and a signal on how the US population could vote in the next election.

Although the election in itself isn’t a risk event for markets, the implications for business in the next two years are important. A major loss for Biden could also bring Trump a step closer back to the White House.

“The FTSE 100 started Tuesday on the back foot as the latest in a seemingly regular dose of political turmoil looms on the horizon in the form of US midterm elections,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.

“The Republicans are widely expected to make sweeping gains and should they control both houses of Congress then Democratic president Joe Biden would essentially be in office but not in power given the divisive nature of politics across the pond.”

“This could be a mixed blessing for markets as gridlock in Washington would at least prevent any legislation being introduced which could damage businesses.”

Corporate Results

While global markets focus on the midterms, a number of FTSE 100 companies updated investors today with mixed reactions.

AB Foods and Coca-Cola HBC provided reasonably positive updates and enjoyed positive reactions in shares while Persimmon shares were hit by poor sales figures.

AB Foods’ operating profit rebounded with the return a shoppers to Primark and recorded revenue similar to pre-pandemic levels.

Coca-Cola shares were higher after the group released a broadly upbeat statement with higher organic sales in all business segments, excluding Ukraine and Russia.

Persimmon warned investors mortgage rates were impacting sales and brought their bumper dividend payments into the spotlight. Although they didn’t make any announcement on dividends, changes to their capital allocation strategy are set to curtail available cash for distributions. Persimmon was down 6.5% at the time of writing and the FTSE 100’s worst performer on the day.