Stock picking considerations for 2019

Stocks markets enjoyed record highs during the early months of 2018 with investors cheering a business friendly US government lead by Donald Trump and the rest of world benefited from easy monetary policy with low interest rates and QE.

This was turned on its head throughout the year, leaving shares a lot cheaper towards the end of 2018 than they did at the beginning.

The selection of stocks for 2019 will be a process dictated by both geopolitical considerations and the relative valuations of individuals equities and wider indices.

The nature of the political backdrop in major global economies drove investor allocations throughout 2018 and this top down approach to equity selection will be at the forefront of stock pickers strategies into 2019.

Brexit, Trump and rumblings from southern Europe are set to influence the allocation of capital between equity and fixed income as well as the picking of individual shares.

Brexit threatens not only the risk of sharp declines in shares in the case of a no deal but also the risk of missing out on any relief rally on a smooth transition that dispels the doom-mongers fears over the UK economy.

Those shares with significant exposure to the UK economy have had a risk premium built in their shares prices and now trade well below long term price-to-earnings ratios. This may well provide an opportunity for investors over the next 12 months.

On the other side of the pond, the Trump rally is all but dead but shares have fallen from all-time highs and could present opportunities for bargain hunters in the short term and long term value investors seeking out fairly priced growth companies.

Top Stock Picks for 2019

Free report containing the Top Stock Picks for 2019 designed to bring stability to a share portfolio in 2019

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While UK assets and economic activity have been depressed by ongoing Brexit negotiations and political uncertainty, Europe has managed to side step much of the fall out and is still providing the underlying growth to support share prices. Those shunning the over stretched valuations of the US and the political uncertainty of the UK may well be more comfortable with the relative economic stability of Europe.

No matter the geographical destination for your capital, one must be conscious of the stage of the market cycle we are in and consider selective stock picking is more important than ever.

Superdry shares down ahead of trading update

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Following criticism from its former co-founder, shares in Superdry have fallen 7% on Tuesday. In a note to Liberum, Julian Dunkerton criticised the retailer’s business model. “The interaction between stores and the internet is going to be so fundamental to the future of retail. Consumers have adopted the internet and, by doing so, have moved away from the limitations of the high street and towards a world of unlimited choice. The premise here is if one does not participate in this world you will get left behind,” he said in a stockbroker note. Shares in the group have fallen over 60% this year and the value could continue to fall after tomorrow’s trading update. In October, Superdry issued a £23 million profit warning after which Dunkerton told the BBC that he wanted to come back to the group to “turn it around”. Fall in sales was blamed on the hot weather and foreign exchange problems. To end its reliance on warm outerwear, Superdry is expanding dresses, skirts and women’s tops. The group also plans to invest more in digitisation to “adapt stores for a digital world”. Michael Hewson, a CMC Markets analyst, said: “The misery on the high street looks set to continue with Superdry shares plunging this morning ahead of their first-half numbers, which are due out tomorrow.” “Shares were already down 60% this year even before today’s declines, and tomorrow’s numbers could put management under further pressure.” Shares in Superdry (LON: SDRY) are currently trading down 6.23% at 579,94 (1340GMT). The retailer will release a trading update on Wednesday.

Justin King joins M&S to “navigate the challenges ahead”

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Justin King, the former Sainsbury’s boss will be joining the Marks & Spencer board as a non-executive director. The retail chief will join M&S at the beginning of January in order to “navigate the challenges ahead” for the retailer. King has worked for over a decade at Sainsbury’s. Before this, he was part of the turnaround strategy at Asda whilst also previously working for the M&S food division. King will work with M&S boss Steve Rowe and has said that he looks forward to “supporting Steve in the turnaround that he is leading”. “Having worked there 15 years ago, M&S has a very special place in my affections. I look forward to joining the Board and supporting Steve in the turnaround that he is leading,” he said. Rowe said: “As we navigate the challenges ahead it will be enormously helpful to have his experience, wisdom and insight on the board. Many colleagues remember his time at M&S and will warmly welcome him back.” M&S chairman, Archie Norman added: “Justin’s appointment completes a very significant reorientation of the board in the last year. He will be a great addition to a strong team.” M&S has reported a fall in sales this year amid tough trading and Brexit uncertainty. Pre-tax profits at the retail giant slumped 62% to £66.8 million in May after a restructuring plan cost £514.1 million that included £321 million to pay for the first phase of its store closure plan. Lee Wild, who is the head of equity strategy at Interactive Investor, said: “The Marks & Spencer PR machine is in full swing and Steve Rowe is telling investors exactly what they want to hear.” “The company has been in desperate need of a major overhaul for years and, under a new and more dynamic leadership team, is getting just that.” “M&S is admitting its shortcomings and promising to deliver what investors have been screaming at it to do for years.” Shares in M&S (LON: MKS) are trading +0.47% at 277,10 (1231GMT).      

888 shares rise amid acquisition of All American Poker Network

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888 Holdings plc has acquired the remaining interest in All American Poker Network for $28 million. Shares in the company edged up by roughly 6% following the announcement. All American Poker Network is a joint venture established in 2013. 888 purchased the remaining 53% interest in the company for $28 million. According to the company, the purchase will facilitate its future growth strategy in the US. Likewise, it gives the group full flexibility to deliver on multiple potential growth opportunities and develop new partnerships.

888 is one of the world’s leading online gaming entertainment and solutions providers.

Chief Executive of the company, Itai Frieberger, commented on the acquisition: “The acquisition of the remaining stake in AAPN is an important strategic step towards 888 achieving its exciting long-term potential in the US. Taking outright ownership of AAPN gives 888 additional operational, technological and commercial flexibility to develop innovative and exciting new partnerships and launch in new states – through both B2B and B2C channels – as and when future regulation allows. This acquisition places 888 in an even better position to take advantage of the significant growth opportunities in the US and create additional value for our shareholders.” “The AAPN joint venture has been a very successful endeavour for the Group. It has afforded us the flexibility and financial capability to build a position in the regulated US market over the last five years whilst also investing in other global regulated markets. I would like to thank Avenue Capital for being fantastic partners in this venture since 2013.” In addition to the acquisition, the company has been consolidating its position in the US. In September, 888sport was launched in New Jersey alongside its poker and casino brands. This was the first time that the company had offered sports betting in the US. Moreover, it signed a landmark sponsorship agreement with the NFL’s New York Jets. This agreement was the first of its kind between an NFL team and a pure-play online gaming operator. Earlier this year, the supreme court decided to legalise sports betting in the US. At 11:16 GMT today, shares in 888 Holdings Public Limited Company (LON:888) were trading at +5.91%.

Oxford BioDynamics reports annual loss

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Oxford BioDynamics plc reported an annual loss on Tuesday morning. This is as a result of its increased spending on R&D and staff. Pre-tax loss for the financial year to September was reported at £2.4 million. Additionally, revenue remained flat at roughly £1.2 million. The company also announced its “strategic” partnership in China with GL Capital Group. The leading Chinese Healthcare Investment group invested £9.75 million for a 5% stake in the company. Moreover, it announced that it successfully completed the UK grant-funded ALS project.

Oxford BioDynamics is a biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of epigenetic biomarkers based on regulatory genome architecture.

These are designed to be used within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry. In November, Oxford BioDynamics signed a deal to develop ASD biomarkers. Chief Executive Officer of Oxford BioDynamics, Christian Hoyer Millar, commented on the results: “In 2018 we have continued to build on the strong foundations established in 2017 following our successful IPO. Investment in our commercial infrastructure has allowed us to further our customer and geographical reach, with our EpiSwitch™ technology increasingly becoming the leading industry standard for identifying epigenetic biomarkers. We have signed multiple commercial development partnerships, in Europe, the US and China in new and challenging clinical indications. Our EpiSwitch™ platform is fast becoming internationally recognised as an effective and novel platform to improve therapeutic options.” “We were delighted to sign a strategic partnership with GL earlier this year, not only strengthening our cash position but also further establishing our position in the rapidly growing Chinese market. We look forward to reporting progress on the multiple projects currently underway.” Other biotechnology sector news includes Biome Technologies being awarded additional grant funding to develop the production of a novel bioplastic building block. Elsewhere on Tuesday, Jadestone Energy announced its Montara Facility will resume production. At 13:28 GMT yesterday, shares in Oxford Biodynamics plc (LON:OBD) were trading at +1.45%.

Jadestone Energy announces Montara facility will resume production

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Jadestone Energy has reported progress on the Montara Shutdown Work on Tuesday. The decision to shut the Montara asset was made in November. As a result of work progressing on target, the company expected production to resume later this month.

Jadestone Energy closed the Montara asset in November in order to correct an extensive backlog of inspection and maintenance routines.

All activities associated with the oil system is now fully complete and the facility is now ready to resume production. Additionally, the company has said that the Montara facility will now be able to operate reliably without any planned major maintenance shutdown until 2020 at the very least. President and CEO of Jadestone Energy, Paul Blakeley, commented on the announcement: “Whilst we were aware, through the due diligence process, of the opportunity to improve operating performance at the Montara asset, and had factored this into our analysis, integrity flaws in the incumbent operator’s MMS made it impossible to identify the full extent of the inspection backlog, and couldn’t provide clear information on inspection status, or the ability to plan future maintenance tasks.” “In the course of working with the operator during the transition phase, since closing the acquisition at the end of September, this became more fully apparent, and led to the identification of a number of incidents of non-compliance with the approved safety case. Having opted to shut down the facility and remedy the broad maintenance and inspection backlog, we have also corrected the MMS itself. While this work scope has resulted in a protracted shutdown timeline, it was a prudent operational decision and one that will significantly reduce ongoing work effort, uncertainty and inefficiency. The asset is now up to date with regards to inspection and major maintenance.” “The extensive scope of inspection work we have undertaken has confirmed our view that the Montara facility is in excellent condition. After having completed over 800 assurance tasks, we see nothing that changes our view of the exceptional value we have attributed to the Montara asset.” “This shutdown will more rapidly embed Jadestone’s proven operating philosophy and safety culture, and when Jadestone assumes operatorship, we will now inherit a high reliability facility that we can operate safely and with confidence. Whilst unplanned outages can always occur, the work undertaken in this shutdown is expected to materially improve uptime performance in the years ahead.” Elsewhere in oil and energy news, the UK’s energy price cap is expected to begin next month, as announced in November. Indeed, the price cap on default energy tariffs are set to begin soon as households have been overpaying for energy. Equally, oil prices fell in November on the back of OPEC’s output cut uncertainty. At 16:00 GMT -5 yesterday, shares in Jadestone Energy Inc (CVE:JSE) were trading at +1.72%.

ONS: wage growth hits 10-year high

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New figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revealed annual wage growth to reach ten-year high. The average weekly earnings in the UK increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the three months to October, the best rate since the 3.2% growth in 2008. The number of people unemployed also grew to 1.38 million. People in employment also grew by 79,000 to a record high of 32.48 million. Many of the jobs that were created were in IT, healthcare and social work. Positive news amid the Brexit uncertainty. ONS senior statistician Matt Hughes said: “The employment rate has continued to rise in the most recent three months, returning to a joint record high, boosted by an increase in full-time workers.” “There was a corresponding fall in the inactivity rate, while the unemployment rate was virtually unchanged. Real earnings are now growing faster than at any time since around the end of 2016.” Geraint Johnes, Professor of Economics at Lancaster University Management School, said: “The latest labour force statistics indicate a rise in unemployment of 20000 over the quarter to August-October this year, the unemployment rate now standing at 4.1%.” “Employment, however, has continued to rise at a healthy pace, with an increase in the numbers of full-time employees of some 100000. Moreover, the gradual shift from part-time to full-time employment has continued, as has the shift of activity from self-employment to employee status. Particularly notable is a decline of 40000 in the numbers of part-time self-employed workers. These trends all align with a narrative of continued adjustment to normality following the severe labour market disruption of the recession and slow recovery.” “The data on pay continue to be encouraging. On the preferred three month measure, total pay rose at an annual rate of 3.3% in October, up from 3.1% the previous month. The less reliable single month estimate indicates growth of 3.9% – though this should be treated with caution because the base figure in October 2017 appears low,” he added. The UK wage news in the UK has helped support gains in the pound, which were down on Monday following Theresa May’s decision to pull the vote on her Brexit deal.

The minister of state for employment, Alok Sharma, said about the figures released on Tuesday: “Today’s statistics show the enduring strength of our jobs market, with wages outpacing inflation for the ninth month in a row and employment at a record high.”

“This is benefitting people across the country, with almost 400,000 more people in work in the last year. Putting more money in the pockets of working families, and showing the UK remains a great place to invest and do business.”

   

MySale shares drop 50% amid profit alert

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MySale group has released a trading update on Tuesday morning, warning the inaccuracy of its results for the financial year. Indeed, as a result of the “challenging conditions” it faced during its peak trading, the group believes its revenue and profits will be well below market expectations. Shares in the company dropped by over 50% following the announcement.

MySale experienced challenging conditions during the second quarter, causing results to be significantly lower.

Additionally, the group is expecting a small underlying EBITDA loss for the first half. Performance in the second half of the financial year is expected to have improved. This has as a result of the measures taken to reduce costs and improve margins. The group also announced that working capital performance during the period has been positive. As expected cash balances have increased. CEO of MySale, Carl Jackson, has commented on the announcement: “We are very disappointed in the performance during this year’s peak trading period. In response to this underperformance we have significantly accelerated and expanded our existing plans to streamline the business, reduce the cost base and make changes to the product strategy. The results of these actions will be realised in the second half of this financial year.” “Whilst we are experiencing a short term dip in revenue and profitability we anticipate the actions initiated shall deliver a return to growth in underlying EBITDA in the second half of the current year.” “The group has strong balance sheet and the anticipated improvements in working capital are being achieved and cash balances are increasing.” “The reconfigured business will be stronger, more efficient and continue to provide a compelling consumer offer and deliver unique solutions to our brand partners.’’ Tuesday’s market news also includes WPP shares jumping on the news of a new turnaround strategy. Elsewhere, Barclays has launched a tool to block spending and Carpetright shares rise despite widening loss. At 10:03 GMT today, shares in MySale Group plc (LON:MYSL) were trading at -48.27%.

Barclays launches new tool to block spending

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Barclays has a new feature on its mobile banking app that can block payments to particular retailers. Launching on Tuesday, the new tool hopes to help “customers in vulnerable circumstances in mind” by blocking spending in pubs, supermarkets and gambling websites/shops. “We are always looking for new ways to support our customers and make it easier for them to manage their finances,” said the Barclays managing director, Catherine McGrath. “We work with a range of advisors and partners, as well as consulting with our customers, to identify how our customers’ needs are changing and what works for them.” “This new control feature is the latest new service that we have introduced in the Barclays Mobile Banking app that aims to give all of our customers a better way to manage their money in a simple, secure and effective way,” she added. The bank used research from the Money and Mental Health Policy Institute to work on the new feature. Monzo introduced a similar feature in June and has reported a 70% plummet on gambling spending. Marc Etches, the chief executive of GambleAware, said: “GambleAware welcomes this initiative by Barclays, which we hope will encourage other banks to do the same. “There are 340,000 problem gamblers in Britain and a further 1.7 million at risk, and initiatives like this can play an important role in helping to reduce gambling-related harms,” he added. The categories that customers can block spending on are groceries and supermarkets, restaurants, takeaways, pubs and bars, petrol and diesel, gambling, and premium rate websites and phone lines. Martin Lewis, the founder of MoneySavingExpert, welcomed the move and hopes other banks will adopt similar banks. Shares in Barclays (LON: BARC) are trading -0.12% at 153,18 (0953GMT).  

WPP shares jump on new turnaround strategy

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The new WPP boss has unveiled a new strategy that will return the advertising agency to growth. Mark Read said the plan will reduce the number of agencies they work with and use the savings to hire more talent in New York and invest in technology. The turnaround strategy will cost the group £300 million over the next three years. WPP has lost 40% of its value in the last year. Read said: “The restructuring of our business will enable increased investment in creativity, technology and talent, enhancing our capabilities in the categories with the greatest potential for future growth.” “As well as improving our offer and creating opportunities for clients, this investment will drive sustainable, profitable growth for our shareholders.” The advertising group’s previous boss, Martin Sorrell leave amid allegations of personal misconduct and is now running his own advertising agency, S4 Capital. On the news of the strategy, analysts at Liberium said they were giving it a “cautious welcome”. “We will hear more at the (capital markets day) later today but our initial view is that WPP is taking the approach RELX took post its problems in 2008/2009, namely recognise the share price will not see much of a recovery short term, focus on running the business and accept the need to deliver to re-rate,” said the stockbroker. “Therefore, we do not see much of a catalyst for the shares short-term.” Shares (LON: WPP) jumped over 5% in morning trading and are currently up 3.89% (0925GMT).