Saxo Bank says US Presidential Election is ‘biggest political risk’ in decades

Online trading and investment specialist, Saxo Bank, published its fourth quarter outlook for equities, FX, currencies, commodities and bonds, in which it assessed forward-going risks, such as the impact of the upcoming US presidential election.

Speaking on the unsettling effect the 2020 election might have on markets, Saxo Bank Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen, said: “We fear that the U.S. election is the biggest political risk we have seen in several decades, as the end of the economic cycle meets inequality, social unrest and a market feeding frenzy driven by the policy response to this deep economic crisis: zero interest rates, infinite government and central bank support.”

Saxo Bank have identified probabilities for three different paths between now and Inauguration Day, with a contested election and a Biden clean sweep both coming in at 40% apiece, while a Trump victory lagged behind at 20%.

The view of the Bank’s Chief Economist is that both candidates are the ‘diametric opposite’ of what the US needs, with both aiming for high spending, both looking to rely on fed support, and both, according the the Bank, not seeking ‘deep reform’.

Which election result would be the best for equities?

According to Saxo Bank, equities have adjusted to Trump’s erratic character, and have done ‘quite well’ despite ongoing US-China tensions causing friction for US companies’ supply chains. They add that large corporations have benefitted from lower taxes and less government oversight.

Further, they believe a Biden statutory tax rate hike from 21% to 28% on corporate income, an increase in Global Intangibles Low-Tax Income tax from 10.5% to 21%, and a hike in corporation tax, from 10% to 15%, could create significant headwinds for high-cap equities. The company’s Head of Equity Strategy, Peter Garney, commented on the effects of these tax increases: “Combined, it is estimated that these tax changes would create a 9% drag on S&P 500 earnings – and that is before second-order effects, including change in investor sentiment, potentially hit valuations. These would hit communication services, healthcare and information technology the hardest, as those companies have the lowest tax rates in general and are big users of intangible assets. The open question is whether Biden dares implement the tax changes during a weak economic backdrop.” On the other hand, blue chip investment management firm, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), said that investors should reject over-simplistic ‘tax-centric’ election logic, which states that a Democrat clean sweep would be seen as market negative. Instead, in such an instance, BlackRock believes that investors would have to deal with higher taxes and tighter regulation, but that this would be balanced out by predictable foreign policy and greater fiscal support. The main implications, they say, will be in fixed income and leadership in equity markets, with long-term rates being pushed high and leading to a ‘modest steepening’ of the Treasury yield curve. Also, while additional tax and regulations might pressure high cap companies, domestically-oriented small cap firms might benefit the most. Blackrock finishes by saying that:

“This scenario would add to reasons to prepare for a higher inflation regime and reinforces our strategic underweight of developed market nominal government bonds. The tectonic shift to sustainable investing will likely persist regardless of the result, but could be supercharged under a Democratic sweep scenario.”

Further, we ought to note that tax rises don’t necessarily mean companies pay more tax. Indeed, even when Trump lowered the corporation tax rate from 16% to 10%, the average tax actually paid by S&P 500 companies in the US has consistently remained between 3-4%. Thus, while a company might price in a dip in shares, this shouldn’t be reflected as clearly on the balance sheet, as most of their tax structures are far more sophisticated than the services attempting to collect tax from them. Third, it is historically noted that Democrat presidencies often coincide with economic downturns. And, as such, often preside over strong recoveries in equities, which would offset the negative impact of new taxes on share prices (see below): https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Have we moved to home working for good?

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A new study by the CBI and PwC has shown that 74% of finance firms in the City of London are reviewing office space needs. As the pandemic led to a boom in home working, many companies are considering much more flexibility in the workplace and the possibility of home working being a permanent fixture. A total of 133 financial firms were surveyed, 88% of whom said there was a greater shift towards home working and that employees could continue roles away from the office. Fund manager Schroders has told employees that they are able to continue working from home even after the pandemic has passed. JP Morgan, however, has raised concerns over permanent homeworking due to the lack of mentorship and dip in productivity at the beginning and end of the working week. A report by Cardiff and Southampton universities said that people are just as productive, if not more, when they are working from home. Prof Alan Felstead, of Cardiff University, said: “Our analysis suggests there will be a major shift away from the traditional workplace, even when social distancing is no longer a requirement.” “What is particularly striking is that many of those who have worked at home during lockdown would like to continue to work in this way, even when social distancing rules do not require them to.” “These people are among the most productive, so preventing them from choosing how they work in the future does not make economic sense.”  

HSS Hire shares rise as group invests in digital platforms

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HSS Hire shares (LON: HSS) surged as the group revealed cost-cutting measures and plans to invest in its digital platforms. The group, which employs 2,000 across the UK, will close 134 branches as well as axe 300 jobs. The tool-hire group has been hit hard amid the difficult trading environments and reported a £12.5m loss for the first half of the year. Revenues plunged by 22% to £125.8m. Since May, HSS Hire has seen a dramatic shift to online sales, which now account for 30% of sales. “While our strategic ambitions remain unchanged, COVID-19 has demonstrated that we are now ready to accelerate our strategy by further investing in our technological platforms,” said chief executive, Steve Ashmore. “These investments will allow us to reduce our physical footprint which, whilst regrettably resulting in the loss of around 300 roles, allows us to become a more agile, technology-driven business which is essential in our markets as well as reducing costs and enhancing shareholder value,” he added. The group has begun redundancy consultations for the 300 jobs it will axe. HSS Hire shares (LON: HSS) are trading +5.21% at 20,99 (1517GMT).  

MIT professor says Uber has acted as a safety net for US unemployed

COVID has led to soaring unemployment with many either leaning on unemployment benefits, unemployment insurance or accumulating personal debt. As unemployment hit 15% in April, MIT Professor, Jordan Nickerson, said that companies in the gig economy – such as Uber (NYSE:UBER) – can have a ‘profound impact’ on labour markets, by decreasing unemployment claimants and indebtedness. “The gig economy allows people to quickly find work with a flexible schedule and earn higher wages than they would generally receive through Unemployment Insurance (UI). This study looks at whether the introduction of the gig economy into a region can lessen the demand for UI and mitigate the need to accumulate personal debt,” says Nickerson. Looking into the introduction of Uber across the US, the MIT study found that unemployed car-owners were less likely to rely on UI. In particular, workers who had access to the ride-hailing service were 4.8% less likely to receive UI benefits. “Our analysis suggests that the decrease in UI usage if Uber were present in all areas translates to a yearly reduction of between $492 million and $750 million in UI benefits distributed by government agencies,” Nickerson adds. The research illustrated similar trends in credit usage, with laid-off workers seeing a relative decrease in total outstanding balances of $544 or 1.3% of the average individual’s debt burden. Similarly, in credit performance, workers experienced a relative decrease in delinquencies of 2.9%. Noting that the effects were most pronounced in areas with the greatest increases in unemployment, Nickerson continued: “We found that driving for Uber is viewed as a temporary safety net rather than a long-term job replacement. It is a way to quickly earn money in exchange for work, but it provides the flexibility to continue looking for another job. This was even the case when looking at individuals from high-income areas,” While the MIT analysis focused on Uber, Nickerson also noted that similar benefits could be identified across gig labour, in firms that offer unemployed people instant access to jobs, such as TaskRabbit and Thumbtack. He adds that the findings are consistent with his own belief: that, if given the choice, most people would rather work and be self-sufficient, than rely on government support. He believes that the gig economy makes this a more viable option. He concludes: “Until now, policymakers have largely highlighted the negative aspects of the gig economy, which is indeed less than perfect. However, this study shows that there are other sides of the argument and that the gig economy can have a profound impact on labour markets. With potentially large UI cost savings to the government on the line and significantly less consumer debt, it is well worth it for policymakers to consider the benefits of the gig economy.” Arguably, we might also say that companies have a greater obligation to offer job security to hard-working staff, even in times of hardship. With our jobs becoming a large part of who we are and how we understand ourselves as people, and the social networks we form, there is something to be said for the ‘job for life and progression in one company’ model. Indeed, constant change and fluid hours will never allow a worker to settle, and many being either informal or recently unemployed, they are largely at the mercy of prospective gig employers. For this reason, we should see companies, such as Uber, as plasters, not panaceas.

TalkTalk shares surge on £1.1bn takeover offer

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TalkTalk shares (LON: TALK) surged 16% on the news that it would consider a £1.1bn takeover bid from investment manager Toscafund. The offer is worth 97p a share and will require the support of chairman Charles Dunstone, who has a 30% stake in the firm. The TalkTalk board has said that it will consider the offer, saying in a statement: “The Board has considered the terms of the Proposal and has agreed to progress the Proposal further with TAM along with taking advice from the Company’s advisers.” Toscafund reportedly made a takeover offer last year, at the higher price of 135p a share. AJ Bell investment director, Russ Mould, said on the offer: “Talk Talk was always positioned as the cheaper alternative to the likes of BT, Sky and Virgin Media for broadband and other services but ultimately it struggled to gain traction in a highly competitive marketplace and growth has really stalled in recent years.” Toscafund has until 5 November to make a firm offer. TalkTalk shares (LON: TALK) are trading 19.09% higher at 99,20 (1404GMT).

Investors worth £10tr make impact investment plea to UK government

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A coalition of 30 major asset managers, banks and investors – boasting Schroders, BlackRock, Barclays, and NatWest among others – have urged the UK government to issue a green bond to support investments in projects designed to decarbonise the UK economy and tackle social inequality. Reuters reported that the proposal involves a sovereign bond developed by the Green Finance Institute (GFI), Impact Investing Institute (III) and LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, and has been dubbed ‘Green+ Gilt’ by supporters. Unlike other conventional green bonds, Green+ Gilt has the added benefit of also addressing social inequality issues, by targeting the widespread job losses caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Its developers have argued that it would help to reboot the UK economy, while also helping to achieve the government’s goals of tackling regional inequalities and reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The project’s developers said in a joint statement that it would “catalyse the development of a sterling green bond market and deliver a strong signal to capital markets and international policymakers of the UK’s commitment to sustainable finance ahead of its presidency of the COP26 UN climate summit in Glasgow next year”.
Professor Lord Nicholas Stern – IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science – added:
“The UK needs a strong and sustainable recovery from COVID-19. A Green+ Gilt is a key instrument that the Government should deploy to help channel savings into programmes and projects that enable us to build back greener in the places that need it most. It can signal the direction of future opportunities and reduce perceived risk. Now is the time to be ambitious. Green investment can have rapid impact and drive strong and sustainable growth”. The issuance of green bonds have increased rapidly around the world in recent years. Some $200 billion have been issued already in 2020, with a cumulative total of $1 trillion since 2007. Just last month, Germany’s government raised €6.5 billion in its first-ever green bond, and the European Union is reportedly considering issuing more green bonds as part of its economic recovery programme in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. A total of 16 countries have so far made commitments to green bonds. In Germany and Sweden, both issues were oversubscribed, but the UK government remains to join the movement despite claims of being a world leader in green finance. Miles Celic, Chief Executive at CityUK, urged the government to catch up with its continental rivals:
“Acting on this proposal would show real UK leadership in green finance by bringing to market a green sovereign bond that has clear social impact characteristics. There is huge appetite for more sustainable finance investment opportunities. The UK must continue to develop its competitive edge in delivering financial solutions to some of the most pressing social and environmental challenges facing the world today”.

Roche shares unfazed by supply chain failures

Shares at Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (SWX:RO) have remained unfazed by reports of a major supply chain problem, which has affected the distribution of crucial NHS supplies as well as causing a drop in its processing capacity for Covid-19 samples. The healthcare firm has seen its share price rise more than 0.50% on Thursday morning, despite warnings of a shortage in vital reagents, screening kits, and swabs used for analysing Covid-19 samples as part of the government’s coalition with the NHS Test and Trace programme. Just last week, the system was struck by a technical glitch which delayed the reporting of some 15,000 cases and caused a leap of nearly 23,000 in Sunday’s infection tally due to the backlog. Roche is one of the main suppliers of the NHS’s diagnostics equipment. The problem is said to have been caused by a move into a new warehouse at its only UK site based in Sussex. While a spokesperson assured the public that the firm was prioritising the processing of Covid-19 test samples, the BBC reported that the backlog could threaten the diagnostics and reporting of cancer and heart disease. An NHS trust in the South West of England has already urged GPs to halt all non-urgent blood tests while Roche attempts to smooth out the disruption to its processing capacity. In a statement, Roche attempted to soothe fears that the supply chain breakdown could have further impact on Covid-19 testing, as well as the distribution of products related to cancer and other serious diseases. “As a global leader in healthcare we take our role in providing vital diagnostics solutions to patients around the world extremely seriously. “There has been a technical issue with the equipment in our new Distribution Centre in Sussex, England, that supplies the UK and Ireland with diagnostics products. This has resulted in a temporary disruption and some delays in distribution of products to UK and Ireland customers. “We are confident that the plans we have put in place will deliver significant improvements by the weekend to the supply of the tests affected by these logistical issues. We will be well on the way to resolution by the end of next week”. Meanwhile, International Trade Secretary Liz Truss encouraged people with Covid-19 symptoms to “continue going through the testing process” regardless of the disruption, although iNews reported that Roche had advised GP surgeries to “activate their local contingency plans” and recommended that doctors “prioritise essential services only”. Munira Wilson, MP for Twickenham and the health spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, commented that Roche’s supply issue was merely adding to the pressure of an NHS already under considerable strain. “This does not only have serious consequences for our ability to test for Covid-19, but others with potentially incredibly serious illnesses will also be unable to get the blood tests or screening they need”. Shares at Roche have remained in the green despite the concerning update, up 0.57% to CHF 316.40 at BST 11:26 08/10/20. The pharmaceutical giant has seen its share price fall considerably since its annual peak of CHF 354.05 during May. Despite a decent recovery last month, shares have fallen in recent weeks amid criticism of the UK’s Covid-19 testing capacity. Roche’s dividend yield stands at 2.87%, while the company boasts a market capitalisation of CHF 270.43 billion.

Hargreaves Lansdown reveals “good start to our financial year” – shares fall

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Hargreaves Lansdown shares (LON: HL) fell on Thursday’s opening, despite a good start to the financial year. In the three months to 30 September 2020, the group saw revenue grow by 12% to £143.7m and net new business of £0.8bn. The growth in new business was weaker than usual, however, is pleasing given the impact of the pandemic and rising Brexit uncertainty. Chief executive, Chris Hill, said: “Today we report a good start to our financial year, with growth in clients, assets and revenue. These results are against the ongoing backdrop of market uncertainty and highlight the resilience of our business model and client proposition. “We are confident that the strategy we have invested in, with our focus on the needs of UK investors and savers and delivering the highest level of client service, means that we continue to be well positioned to deliver continued attractive long-term growth,” Hill added. Earlier this year, the group said they had experienced recorded dealing figures through the coronavirus crisis. Hargreaves Lansdown shares (LON: HL) are trading -4.91% at 1.510,00 (0941GMT).

Imperial Brands reveals “resilient” trading update, shares rise

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Imperial Brands shares (LON: IMB) opened 2.16% higher on Thursday’s opening as the group revealed a “resilient” trading update. The tobacco company said that it expects group net revenue to be flat over the financial year, however, the group has seen increased overall demand. The growing demand has offset the weaker demand in the duty-free channel and summer tourist destinations, where the market has been hit by lack of travel. Stefan Bomhard, the chief executive of Imperial Brands, said in a statement: “Imperial has continued to show resilience in adapting to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic and our priority remains the health, safety and well-being of our people across our operations. “In my first three months as CEO I have focused on reviewing our strategy, engaging with employees, and visiting as many of our key markets as possible. I have been struck by the energy and passion of my colleagues, which increases my confidence in our ability to deliver a stronger performance in the years ahead. “I expect to be able to share some initial observations about the business when we publish our preliminary results on 17 November, at which time we will also announce the date of a capital markets event to provide a strategic update in the first quarter of calendar 2021,” he added. Imperial Brands shares (LON: IMB) are trading 2.49% higher at 1.397,50 (0901GMT).

easyJet shares remain steady despite full-year loss

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easyJet shares (LON: EZJ) took a small dip on Thursday as the group released a trading statement for the last 12 months. The budget airline said it is in line for a full-year loss for the first-ever time as passenger numbers have halved amid the pandemic. For the 12 months to 30 September, the group expects to make a loss of between £815m to £845m. Passenger numbers over the past 12 months plunged to 48 million due to travel restrictions and quarantine rules. easyJet has warned that numbers will not return to normal for some time and has called on the government to support the aviation sector as it faces “the most severe threat in its history.” The group’s chief executive, Johan Lundgren, said: “Based on current travel restrictions we expect to fly c.25% of planned capacity for Q1 2021 but we retain the flexibility to ramp up capacity quickly when we see demand return and early booking levels for summer ‘21 are in line with previous years. “Aviation continues to face the most severe threat in its history and the UK Government urgently needs to step up with a bespoke package of measures to ensure airlines are able to support economic recovery when it comes. “easyJet came into this crisis in a very strong position thanks to its strong balance sheet and consistent profitability. This year will be the first time in its history that easyJet has ever made a full year loss,” he added. easyJet’s revenue plunged almost 75%, falling from £2.3bn last year to £620m. In the first quarter of the next financial year, easyJet said that it expects to fly just 25% of capacity. The airline will focus on ash generative flying over the winter season in order to minimise losses during the first half. easyjet shares (LON: EZJ) are steady following the trading update and are +0.12% at 524,04 (0845GMT).