UK Property: Key market drivers and opportunities with Monta Capital

Thomas Balashev, Managing Partner of Monta Capital, joins the Podcast to discuss the key drivers of the UK property market in 2021 and where his fund is planning to deploy capital.

The UK property market has faced a number of pressures due to COVID-19 and Brexit, but this has presented a number of opportunities and will continue to through 2021.

However, certain areas of the market need to be paid particular attention as the economic downturn is causing shifts that may be long lasting and cause certain sectors to lag the overall market.

GKN announces factory closure – 500 jobs at risk

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GKN has announced plans to close a car parts factory in Birmingham, putting over 500 jobs at risk.

The company has owned the site since the 1960s and the news of the closure comes following figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showing car production last year to be the lowest level since 1984.

“These figures, the worst in a generation, reflect the devastating impact of the pandemic… The industry faces 2021 with more optimism, however, with a vaccine being rolled out and clarity on how we trade with Europe, which remains by far our biggest market,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT.

GKN has blamed the closure on the “increasingly competitive” global market. The factory in Birmingham produces components to Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover.

A spokesman from the group said: “Proposing this closure is a difficult decision which has been made despite significant effort and investment over the past 10 years to reduce the high operating costs at the Birmingham assembly site. Sadly, an increasingly competitive global market means that the site is no longer viable.”

Unite, the trade union, has said the factory is expected to close in 18 months. “The workforce have been left shocked and angry to learn that management is looking to close this highly viable site,” said Des Quinn, the national officer.

“Unite is now seeking urgent meetings with senior management at GKN to understand the business case and the logic behind this decision,” he added.

GKN was bought by turnaround specialist Melrose in an £8bn takeover in 2018.

Diageo shares strong trading despite pub closures

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Diageo shared a resilient performance in the six months to December, despite pub and bar closures.

The Guinness and Smirnoff maker saw a slight decline in sales by just 5% in the period to £6.9bn, whilst global pre-tax profits were 10% lower at £2.2bn.

Despite the Coronavirus restrictions and pub closures, Diageo said that strong sales of Don Julio and Casamigos tequilas and Bulleit bourbon in US retail stores, as well as recovery in China, led to strong sales.

In North America, the group saw sales of tequila rise by 80% – leading to an overall increase in sales by 12.3%.

Diageo is continuing annual increases in its dividend, which rose 2% to 27.96p a share.

Commenting on the results, chief executive Ivan Menezes said: “There are new habits developing, including making cocktails at home. Some of that will stick. But the consumer orientation to return to socialising outside the home is very high so as conditions get back to normal we expect consumers returning to pubs, bars, restaurants and sporting events, so our business will rebalance.”

“We expect ongoing volatility and disruption in the second half of the year, particularly in the [hospitality] channel, which will make performance more challenging,” he added.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, commented on the latest results: “Under the circumstances, Diageo’s results could have been a lot worse given the ongoing disruption to the hospitality and travel sectors as fewer people have been able to go to bars, hotels, pubs and restaurants as well as shop for spirits at airports.

“Working in its favour is a rise in alcohol sales during lockdown as people are forced to entertain themselves at home. Notably, spirit sales have held up well and pre-mixed drinks have been very popular. But longer-term Diageo really needs all the leisure establishments to reopen as they are also key drivers of premium spirit product sales.

“There are several comforting signs in its results which show the hallmarks of a well-run business. Its ability to continue to invest in marketing and product innovation will stand it well as markets reopen. It has been fast to curb discretionary spending, which is quite an achievement for a business of its size. And it is still able to generate strong enough amounts of cash to grow dividends,” added Mould.

Diageo shares (LON: DGE) rose 2.9% to £29.26 following the trading update. They closed Thursday’s trading at £29.43.

Novavax vaccine is 89% effective

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The Novavax has shown a 89.3% effectiveness against Covid-19.

Following phase three trials in the UK, the new vaccine also is found to be effective against the new variant of the virus discovered in the UK.

The UK has ordered 60 million doses of the vaccine and it is expected to be distributed over the second half of the year. First, the vaccine will need to be approved by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency.

Stan Erck, chief executive of Novavax, said the results from the UK trial were “spectacular”. The vaccine will be produced in Stockton-on-Tees.

 “The results from the UK trial of Novavax’s vaccine look extremely promising, and I welcome the news that the company is planning to submit its data to the regulators,” said Business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng. “The UK moved quickly to procure 60 million doses from Novavax and I’m pleased to confirm the bulk of the vaccine will be manufactured on Teesside and delivered during this year, if approved for use.”

Health secretary Matt Hancock said: “This is positive news and, if approved by the medicines regulator, the Novavax vaccine will be a significant boost to our vaccination programme and another weapon in our arsenal to beat this awful virus. I’m proud the UK is at the forefront of another medical breakthrough and I want to thank the brilliant scientists and researchers, as well as the tens of thousands of selfless volunteers who took park in clinical trials.”

Already, the UK has been rolling out doses of the vaccine from Oxford University and AstraZeneca, another by Pfizer and BioNTech, and a final vaccine from drug firm Moderna. The prime minister has said that by mid-February, 15 million people in the UK would have had their first injection.

Greatland Gold reveals growth drilling plans

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Greatland Gold has shared an update on Newcrest’s drilling campaign at the Havieron deposit in the Paterson region of Western Australia.

In addition, the precious and base metals exploration and development company reported on latest drill results, which confirmed the continuity of higher-grade mineralisation within the South East Crescent and Breccia.

In an update, Greatland Gold 2021 growth drilling programme includes plans for approximately 65,000 metres of drilling within the next six months and will focus on South East Crescent and Breccia, expansion of the existing Inferred Mineral Resource in Northern Breccia, and drill testing and interpretation of the geological and mineralisation controls in Eastern Breccia.

Gervaise Heddle is the chief executive officer of Greatland Gold. He commented: “As earth moving activities commence at Havieron, Newcrest continues to deliver excellent infill results within the existing resource shell and is launching an exciting 2021 growth drilling programme with the potential to further expand the mineralised footprint.

“The latest drill results increase our confidence in the continuity of higher-grade mineralisation and support the potential delivery of an Indicated Mineral Resource. Meanwhile, Newcrest’s plans for 65,000 metres of growth drilling will target several zones which could represent potential extensions to mineralisation outside of the Inferred Mineral Resource estimate, as well as new targets announced today within the Havieron joint venture area.

“Alongside the ramp-up of exploration and early works activities at Havieron, we are also preparing to launch our Juri Joint Venture exploration programme for 2021, which will focus on drill testing priority targets, including the Parlay target within the Black Hills Project and the Goliath, Outamind and Los Diablos targets within the Paterson Range East Project. We look forward to providing regular updates on activities at both joint ventures – Havieron and Juri – in due course,” Heddle added.

Greatland Gold shares are trading -2.80% at 26,15 (1548GMT).

UFODRIVE, a rising star of Advanced Mobility, raising £1.5m to drive further expansion

Sponsored by UFODRIVE

Travel is undergoing a fundamental shift. By 2030, the UK and a host of other counties will deliver on their commitment to ban sales of new diesel and petrol cars. The impact of this can already be seen now in the surging sales of electric vehicles with further disruption (and opportunity) in evidence right across the Mobility sector.

UFODRIVE, is one of the front runners in embracing the new world of Mobility. Capitalizing on both the shift away from the traditional model of car ownership, with many city dwellers now opting not to own a car, as well as the shift to electric, it was a first mover in developing a compelling alternative proposition, primed for rapid acceptance as part of the electric revolution.

Launched in 2018, UFODRIVE delivers 100% digital, 100% electric, zero hassle car rental. It provides a truly customer focused experience by removing all of the pain points from traditional car rental. The full booking and rental process is managed via the UFODRIVE app allowing customers to reserve and drive, efficiently, autonomously, and without the need to queue at a desk. With an entirely electric (primarily Tesla) fleet, added to an industry first carbon credits-based loyalty programme, UFODRIVE has already delivered Co2 savings of over 1 million kgs.

Now operating from 17 locations across 8 countries, UFODRIVE’s model of radically better car rental is proving to be a hit with travelers. Feedback from customers earns UFODRIVE the highest Net Promoter Score of car rental anywhere. It’s also proven to be resilient in the face of challenging business conditions by growing its business by 108% during 2020. 

UFODRIVE is currently crowdfunding on Seedrs.com with its target of £1.5m already reached at the halfway stage of the campaign which is likely to be extended given the high demand. Speaking about the campaign, founder and CEO, Aidan McClean, said “it has been both gratifying and exciting to see this vision become reality and we are now looking to jump start the next phase of our business with this crowdfunding initiative. UFODRIVE investors can look forward to benefitting from the expansion of a business that has already successfully created its own unique space in the car rental sector.”

 A key component of UFODRIVE’s customer proposition is the real time connectivity to over 140,000 EV chargers. This allows customers to be guided to charging locations via the app at any stage during their journey and has been particularly welcomed by the more than 70% of customers who had never driven electric previously.

The powerful technology behind UFODRIVE’s fleet operations is also being deployed as an end-to-end EV Mobility Software as a Service platform. This is currently being rolled out to a growing pipeline of fleet operators making the switch to electric. The first customers are already live, and demand is expected to increase further as more operators start to move away from traditional diesel fleets.

Over 500 Seedrs investors have joined UFODRIVE to help fuel a move towards a better solution for customers and the planet. With further expansion coming during 2021, UFODRIVE has global ambitions, highly efficient technology developed on real EV fleet experience, and a vision for sustainable, hassle-free mobility.

To find out more about UFODRIVE, visit the campaign now.

Facebook beats Q4 analyst expectations

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Facebook reported strong results for the fourth quarter ended 31 December.

Thanks to increased ad spending by businesses, revenue at the social media giant jumped by £7bn from $21.08bn to $28.07bn. This was higher than expected by analysts, who estimated revenues of $26.44bn.

As well as revenue, the number of users over the Facebook platforms also surged by 12% to 2.80bn – higher than the 2.75bn estimated by analysts.

The group saw strong trading as Instagram Shopping and Facebook Marketplace expanded and more people began shopping online.

Facebook said in a trading update: “We believe our business has benefited from two broad economic trends playing out during the pandemic. The first is the ongoing shift towards online commerce. The second is the shift in consumer demand towards products and away from services.

“We believe these shifts provided a tailwind to our advertising business in the second half of 2020 given our strength in product verticals sold via online commerce and our lower exposure to service verticals like travel. Looking forward, a moderation or reversal in one or both of these trends could serve as a headwind to our advertising revenue growth.”

The results this year came despite a difficult time for Facebook as the group faced an advertiser boycott, antitrust actions, and content moderation concerns around the US presidential election.

Tamara Littleton, analyst and chief executive officer at social media agency The Social Element, commented on the strong results: “For now, Facebook seems untouchable. But the fact remains: Facebook has damaged its reputation through consistently putting profit before anything else.”

Facebook shares closed -3.51% lower at 272,14.

Apple posts bumper sales hitting $111bn

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Apple posted bumper trading in the last three months of 2020 as people bought plenty of gadgets over the Christmas period.

For the quarter ended December 26 sales were up 21% to $111.44bn – beating analyst expectations of $103.28bn.

Quarterly earnings per diluted share were up 35% to $1.68. International sales accounted for 64% of the quarter’s revenue.

Sales of iPhones increased amid the release of its new iPhone 12. iPhone sales exceeded estimates of $59.80bn and hit $65.60bn. The new phone had convinced a record number of customers to switch to the company and upgrade, said executives from Apple.

According to Apple, sales in China were particularly strong. Sales in greater China surged 57%.

Mac sales reached $8.68bn, which was in line with analyst expectations of $8.69bn. Sales of iPads were $8.44bn, which is higher than the analyst expectations of $7.46bn.

Apple declared a dividend of 20.5 cents per share.

Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, commented: “We’re gratified by the enthusiastic customer response to the unmatched line of cutting-edge products that we delivered across a historic holiday season.”

Luca Maestri, Apple’s chief financial officer, said: “Our December quarter business performance was fueled by double-digit growth in each product category, which drove all-time revenue records in each of our geographic segments and an all-time high for our installed base of active devices.

“These results helped us generate record operating cash flow of $38.8 billion. We also returned over $30 billion to shareholders during the quarter as we maintain our target of reaching a net cash neutral position over time,” he added.

Apple shares closed 0.77% lower at 142,06.

Car production in 2020 was “worst in a generation”

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UK car production was down 29% and has fallen to its lowest level since 1984.

Last year saw British car manufacturers produce a total of 921,000 cars. This is the first time that production has fallen to below a million since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis.

The figures have meant that the industry lost about £10.5bn in revenues compared to the year previously.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), called 2020 a “dreadful year” and said that it was also “the worst in a generation” for car production.

“These figures, the worst in a generation, reflect the devastating impact of the pandemic… The industry faces 2021 with more optimism, however, with a vaccine being rolled out and clarity on how we trade with Europe, which remains by far our biggest market,” he said.

“The immediate challenge is to adapt to the new conditions, to overcome the additional customs burdens and regain our global competitiveness while delivering zero emission transport.”

Nissan overtook Jaguar Land Rover as the biggest British manufacturer. Nissan produced 246,000 vehicles whilst Nissan had an output of 244,000 cars – down 37% on the previous year.

The UK’s biggest export destination remains the EU with 53.5% going to the EU. The number of cars exported to the EU slumped in 2020 by 30.8% to 400,460 vehicles.

Exports to the US, Japan and Australia last year were down 33.7%, 21.6% and 21.8% respectively. However, exports to China, South Korea and Taiwan grew by 2.3%, 3.6% and 16.7% respectively.

Value vs Growth: Tech shares in the spotlight and Gamestop raises questions

The question of value vs growth is becoming a prevalent theme in equity markets as valuations in the tech sector become and heated and economists start to explore the end of ultra accommodative monetary policy.

Alan Green joins the Podcast to analyse the current state of equity markets and whether significant price gains in US Indices, Gamestop and certain technology shares should be a warning sign to investors or simply the consequence of an evolution in investor appetite and risk tolerances.

Gamestop has grabbed the headlines as the bricks and mortar video games retailer surged from $19 on 11th January to trade at $360 in the pre-market at the time of recording the Podcast. The explosion in the Gamestop share price stemmed from a Reddit chatroom and sent into a frenzy with a Tweet by Elon Musk.

We discuss Gamestop (NYSE:GME) Pelaton (NASDAQ:PTON), Just Eat (LON:JET), CVS Group (LON:CVS), Echo Energy (LON:ECHO), Catenae Innovations (LON:CTEA)