CPP Group shares surge on strong trading

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CPP Group shares have surged almost 54% on Monday after the group shared a trading for the year ended 31 December 2020.

The group said that trading in India had recovered well, which was “supported by the steady performance of our renewal portfolios in the UK and EU and a resilient performance in our Turkish operation.”

CPP Group expects full-year revenue to come in at around £140m – this is higher than previous forecasts of £133m. Underlying earnings (EBITDA)  are also expected to come in higher than previous forecasts of £6.4m and are expected to be in the range of £7.1m to £7.3m.

The company’s financial cash position remains strong at £21.9m thanks to “a notably conservative plan for managing its cash resources.”

The group will publish full-year results on 24 March 2021.

Jason Walsh, Chief Executive, said: “Despite the ongoing disruption and uncertainty caused by the pandemic in the second half, we continued to deliver consistently high levels of service and grow our business. Our ability to respond quickly and effectively to the evolving needs of our customers and partners meant we were able to strengthen existing relationships and forge new ones, which will further benefit the Group in 2021 and beyond.”

CPP shares are trading 53.96% at 505,00 (1215GMT).

BT shares down on £600m compensation claim

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BT shares fell over 2% on Monday morning after it was hit by a £600m compensation claim.

Ofcom said that the telecoms operator had failed to compensate elderly customers who had been overcharged for their landlines for the past eight years.

When Ofcom said that customers who only had landlines were being overcharged, BT reduced the cost by £7 a month. However, those “loyal” customers who have stayed with BT have not been compensated.

The Collective Action on Land Lines (CALL) has filed a £589m claim with the Competition Appeal Tribunal, which is made up of £500 for each of 2.3m BT customers.

Justin Le Patourel, founder of consumer group CALL, said: “Ofcom made it very clear that BT had spent years overcharging landline customers, but did not order it to repay the money it made from this.”

“We think millions of BT’s most loyal landline customers could be entitled to compensation of up to £500 each, and the filing of this claim starts that process.”

In response to the claim, BT said that it disagreed with the claim that it had engaged in anti-competitive behaviour.

A spokesperson said: “We take our responsibilities to older and more vulnerable customers very seriously and will defend ourselves against any claim that suggests otherwise.

“For many years we’ve offered discounted landline and broadband packages in what is a competitive market with competing options available, and we take pride in our work with elderly and vulnerable groups, as well as our work on the Customer Fairness agenda.”

Ian Grant is an independent telecoms analyst. He said: “Earlier in 2017, Ofcom fined BT £42m because it was late providing high-speed Ethernet lines, and forced BT to make good the losses of firms like Vodafone and TalkTalk.

“Ofcom, which has a statutory duty to stop consumer abuses, could have done the same for these customers. Instead, it allowed BT to get away with a 37% price cut, at a time when the difference between its costs and what it charged customers had risen between 50-74%.”

“It is especially poor that BT was overcharging customers who were mostly over 65, more than three-quarters of whom had never used a different provider, and for whom the telephone was their only communications link.”

BT shares are trading -2.07% at 137,93 (1159GMT).

China’s GDP grows by 2.3% in 2020

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China’s economy is set to be the only major economy to have grown in 2020.

However, the latest data has shown that the Chinese economy grew at 2.3%, which is the slowest rate since 1976 when the GDP shrunk by 1.6%.

The growth in the economy did beat expectations by the International Monetary Fund, which expected the country’s economy to grow by 1.9% – the only major economy that the IMF predicted any growth for.

Growth in the final quarter grew by 6.5%.

Yue Su, principal economist for the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented: “The GDP data shows the economy has almost normalised. This momentum will continue, although the current Covid-19 outbreak in a couple of provinces in northern China might temporarily cause fluctuation.”

Whilst the pandemic had a significant impact on the economy and forced the closure of factories and manufacturing plants, the sector has recovered and is increased by 7.3%.

Whilst manufacturing is on the increase, domestic goods are still low. Li Wei, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank, told Reuters: “Domestic household consumption of food, clothing, furniture and utilities remains below pre-pandemic levels, while the hospitality and transportation sectors continue to face capacity and travel restrictions.”

Retail sales also dipped in December to 4.6% – down from 5% in November. Retail sales fell by 3.9% over the whole year.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note: “Despite the latest dip in retail sales, we see plenty of upside to consumption as households run down the excess savings they accumulated last year. Meanwhile, the tailwinds from last year’s stimulus should keep industry and construction strong for a while longer.”

FTSE 100 starts off the week lower

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The FTSE 100 opened lower this morning, down 0.2% to 6,725 points.

Among the biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were oil companies and airlines as oil prices fell and travel restrictions heightened.

The new travel measures were announced by Boris Johnson last week, in an attempt to control the spread of the virus. The Covid test must be taken three days before travel or travellers could risk a £500 fine. The new rules kicked in at 4am on Monday.

“Friday capped off an already turbulent 2nd week of 2021 with a severely bumpy landing. The markets, then, are in dire need of a pick-me-up, which might be hard to come by during the most fraught inauguration week in living memory,” said Connor Campbell from SpreadEx, commenting on the FTSE 100.

“The overnight data out of China failed to provide the propulsion needed to reverse last week’s losses. For while fourth quarter GDP smashed estimates to come in at 6.5% – essentially back to pre-pandemic levels, and well past Q3’s 4.9% – Chinese retail sales went in the wrong direction, slipping from 5.0% to 4.6%, almost a whole percentage point below the 5.5% forecast. Essentially the Chinese economy might be bouncing back – industrial production was also up, from 7.0% to 7.3% – but not in the way Western investors want.

“This meant the European markets softly edged out of the gate, unsure of which direction to take thanks to the mixed signals from one superpower, and the wholesale absence of the other. The FTSE crossed its arms and refused to move after the bell, instead sitting unchanged around 6,730. The DAX and CAC were hardly any more energetic, dipping 0.1% and 0.2% respectively,” he added.

Top risers this morning on the FTSE 100 included Just Eat Takeaway.com and Polymetal International.

Travel restrictions tighten as corridors close

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Everyone now arriving in the UK must have proof of a negative Covid-19 test to travel.

In addition, all UK travel corridors have closed and everyone must quarantine on arrival for up to 10 days.

The new measures were announced by Boris Johnson last week, in an attempt to control the spread of the virus. The Covid test must be taken three days before travel or travellers could risk a £500 fine. The new rules kicked in at 4am on Monday.

The new rules will be in place until at least 15 February. The government will also impose flight bans from countries where there are new varients. Last week, the UK banned all travel from South America and Portugal.

The travel sector has said that it understands the tighter restrictions, however, it would lead to deeper impacts on the sector.

Tim Alderslade, chief executive of Airlines UK, told the BBC: “We’ve had no revenue now effectively for 12 months, give or take a few months in the summer last year. If we’re going to have an aviation sector coming out of this we need to open up in the summer.”

The head of the Airport Operators Association has warned that some UK airports might be forced to close if restrictions continue.

“Airports are currently keeping their infrastructure open to support vital and critical services, such as post, freight, emergency services, military and Coastguard flights, as well as to help keep the lights in the UK on through supporting flights to offshore oil, gas and wind operations,” said AOA chief executive Karen Dee.

“Airports are doing so while running on empty – there is only so long they can run on fumes before having to close temporarily to preserve their business for the future.”

In response to the new rules, the UK government said that a financial support scheme for airports would open this month.

Dee said the measures would “provide much-needed support to many embattled airports, helping them through the challenging months ahead”.

Watkin Jones set to rebuild confidence

Residential and student accommodation developer Watkin Jones (LON: WJG) was hit hard by Covid-19 after-effects but the share price has started to recover. The full year figures have been well-flagged, but the trading statement on Tuesday 19 January should clarify the prospects for the operations.
Pre-tax profit is expected to decline from £50.2m to £45m. Net cash was £90m at the end of September 2020 and this will enable the company to pay a dividend twice covered by earnings. That suggests a 7p a share pay out for a normal full year. There was no interim dividend but the final dividend should...

Cautious response to N Brown trading

Retailer N Brown (LON: BWNG) traded slightly better than expected in the third quarter with strong gift and home sales. Costs savings, including lower marketing spend, have partly offset lower profit contribution due to a reduction in revenues. Even so, investors still need to be persuaded that the recovery will accelerate.
N Brown has an older customer base above 50 years old, and they are not buying as much clothing. There was growth in leisurewear and nightwear.
Product revenues were 9% lower year-on-year in the third quarter. That compares with 12% in the previous quarter and 28.8% in the...

Markets end week on subdued note

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Western markets look set to end the week on a sour note, with the FTSE slipping to a 9 day-low as trading closed and both its US and European equivalents weathering similar drops.

The FTSE is among the worst casualties of the day, contemplating the new Office for National Statistics (ONS) data revealing that UK GDP shrank by 2.6% in November as swathes of the UK faced a second national lockdown, marking the end of a six month long period of growth for the struggling economy. The index closed the day down -1.18% at 6,721.95 points (GMT 16:18).

Despite all the buzz around President-elect Joe Biden’s $1.2tn economic relief package, the Dow Jones emerged unimpressed and still appears to be coming to terms with yesterday’s news that US jobless claims have risen to their highest levels since last August – and are ticking ever closer to the 1 million mark. The US index fell -0.70% to 30,774.03 points (GMT 16:19).

On the continent, the DAX has had an especially rough day – down 1.83% to 13,732.79 points (GMT 16:23) as German pharmaceutical firm Pfizer announced it will be reducing its vaccine deliveries to EU nations as it renovates its main production plant (much to the dismay of the German Health Ministry), while the CAC also slipped 1.51% to 5,595.21 (GMT 16:24).

Commenting on today’s market performances, Spreadex‘s Connor Campbell said:

“The markets suffered a sophomore slump in the 2nd week of the year, culminating in some rather ugly losses this Friday afternoon.

“Conscious of the difficulties in getting anything done in the American political system, let alone when you are trying to impeach the outgoing President, investors greeted Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid-19 stimulus plan with a ‘we’ll see’. 

“Unfortunately that meant attention lingered on a rough couple of days for US data. Following on from Thursday’s sky high jobless claims figure – the worst since the end of August, and perilously close to the 1 million mark – investors had to deal with a pair of glum December retail sales readings suggestive of a tough Christmas across the country”.

And in regard to the European indices, it looks as if ongoing concern over the British, South African and Brazilian variants of Covid-19 is keeping investors feeling cautious, along with further teething issues with the UK’s newfound independence from the EU looking far from over.

“It’s not necessarily looking any easier for the markets next week,” Campbell said. “If they can pull themselves out of this New Year nosedive is arguably doing to be down to 2 things: how chaotic Biden’s inauguration ends up being, and how quickly the Democrats can get down to the dirty business of passing bills once the new POTUS takes office”.

Pfizer shares slide on vaccine delivery cuts

Shares at American pharmaceutical firm Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) have slipped after its announcement that it will be temporary reducing deliveries of its Covid-19 vaccine to Europe while it seeks to upgrade its production capacity to the target 2 billion doses per year.

“This temporary reduction will affect all European countries,” a spokeswoman for Pfizer Denmark said in a statement to The Associated Press. “It is as yet not precisely clear how long time it will take before Pfizer is up to maximum production capacity again”.

The decision was made so that Pfizer can focus on expanding its production at its plant in Belgium, which will require “adaptation of facilities and processes at the factory” in order to meet the new target, alongside “new quality tests and approvals from the authorities”.

“As a consequence, fewer doses will be available for European countries at the end of January and the beginning of February”.

Pfizer is currently producing vaccines at a rate of 1.3 billion per year, but is attempting to upscale in order to meet the ambitious vaccination goals of the UK, EU and USA.

According to The Independent, Germany’s Health Ministry said on Friday that Pfizer had informed the European Commission – which is responsible for ordering vaccines from the company – that it will not be able to fulfil all of the promised deliveries in the next three to four weeks.

The ministry reportedly said that German officials took note of the unexpected announcement by the Commission ”with regret”, because the company had previously made “binding delivery commitments by mid-February”.

“The federal and state governments expect the EU Commission to provide clarity and certainty as soon as possible in negotiations with Pfizer about further deliveries and delivery dates,” Germany’s Health Ministry said in their statement.

While the Commission helped to orchestrate the vaccine deals on behalf of all 27 EU member states, it is not directly responsible for the timetable and deliveries.

Asked on Friday whether Brussels had been informed by Pfizer about delays in the EU, Commission health policy spokesman Stefan de Keersmaecker told The Independent that all enquiries surrounding production capacity should be directed to Pfizer itself.

“The Commission stands ready to support and facilitate contacts between the company and member states whenever needed,” he added.

Pfizer’s shares quaked mildly in response to the news, down -0.59% to USD 36.54 at GMT 15:52 on Friday, although the stock has remained relatively steady around the $37 mark since mid-December.

Oil: An outlook for 2021

Oil had a stormy year in 2020, plummeting to record lows during the near-global lockdown in the spring, before rapidly climbing towards the latter end of the year as travel restrictions were gradually loosened and vaccine optimism sparked a jump in demand.

Earlier this week, oil rallied to an 11-month high with Brent Crude coming in at over $57 per barrel, responding to global vaccination efforts and Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it will be tapering production by 1m barrels a day in February and March.

The commodity’s upward trajectory has also been boosted by a decline in US shale production and stockpiles, and OPEC+’s early January decision to restrain production at least until the summer months.

As we settle into the new year, the outlook for oil prices in 2021 looks a lot rosier than it did twelve months ago. While national and regional lockdowns around the world are probably here to stay for some time, mass vaccination drives will gradually increase immunity to the point where “normal” business and lifestyle activities can resume.

A return in demand for oil when the travel industry is finally able to return to ordinary operational levels is inevitable, and it is widely expected that mass vaccination will afford greater travel freedoms by the end of the year at the latest.

The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects that gasoline – the primary motor fuel used in the US – will climb in the second half of 2021 as travel restrictions slacken, although warns that the newfound “work from home” trend could send demand ticking down fairly quickly again as workers increasingly opt to avoid commuting. Gasoline, according to the EIA, will therefore most likely moderate in 2022 to just below 2019 levels.

On the other hand, jet fuel is expected to show modest growth throughout 2021, but the EIA’s projections rely heavily on the assumption that the bulk of Covid-19 disruption is behind us. Further lockdowns run the risk of dampening the travel industry once again – and with the UK and a bevy of European countries currently undergoing second and even third national lockdowns – jet fuel is stuck in a yet another trough.

Hopes that both gasoline and jet fuel can trend upwards are therefore heavily dependent on the success of Covid-19 vaccination.

In terms of politics – with Joe Biden’s inauguration marking the Democrats’ control of all three branches of US government – U.S. production increases are looking unlikely due to the party’s commitment to cleaner, alternative energy. More strict regulations on the industry are also likely to hamper production as the US is expected to re-enter the Paris Climate Agreement and faces its obligation to keep up with its own carbon-neutral ambitions by 2050.

The decline of U.S. supplies, OilPrice.com states, will “return pricing power firmly to OPEC+”, and the recently-obtained $50 price benchmark is “likely to be a floor price going forward”. While Western countries increasingly look away from fossil fuels to greener alternatives, OPEC+ members appear less concerned with climate change, and will continue to push for higher prices in the coming months and years.

Along with oil, the possibility of a commodity boom in 2021 is being increasingly touted by analysts, largely driven by growth in the Chinese market. Iron ore prices hiked to $176.90 a tonne shortly before Christmas – its highest point since May 2011 – and the market price for copper breached $8,000 a tonne for the first time in more than seven years at the start of January. Silver is also set to overtake gold’s performance in 2021, benefitting in a surge in interest in green technology products (which are largely made up of silver components) and the ongoing weakness of the US dollar keeping investors firm on their precious metal stocks.

Overall, it looks like 2021 is poised to be a good year for oil – so long as Covid vaccines live up to expectations – as well as other precious metals and commodities. Investors looking to make the most of this resurgence, however, should heed the growing trend towards alternative energy that will likely see fossil fuels take a hit in the coming years.