Markets feeling poorly with Coronavirus and Davos tensions

Asian markets have continued to suffer worst from the spread of Coronavirus, with investors fearing tentative attitudes towards trade and travel with China and surrounding regions. The situation was also dim for European indices, with the FTSE and DAX also suffering losses after trading began, though this was also caused, in part, by the back-and-forth taking place in Davos. Thursday will likely prove an eventful day, as these issues unfurl alongside the ECB‘s first strategic review since 2003, courtesy of Chirstine Lagarde. Speaking on the morning’s events, Spreadex Financial Analyst Connor Campbell stated,

“Though they avoided a major slide, the European indices started the session in the red as the Coronavirus caused significant losses in Asia.”

“The Shanghai Composite suffered its worst day in almost 8 months, falling nearly 3% as Wuhan – the epicentre of Coronavirus – was put on lock down by Chinese officials. That decision came as the death toll rose to 17, with the number of cases now above 500. Elsewhere the Hang Seng slipped 2.2%, the Nikkei 1% and the South Korean KOSPI 0.9%.”

“The European markets weren’t quite as damaged after the bell. Nevertheless, the FTSE dropped 0.4% to fall below 7550 for the first time in a fortnight, while the DAX’s 75 point slide left it more than 200 points off the record high the German index briefly struck on Wednesday. The Dow Jones, which ended yesterday in the red, is set to slip to a one-week low of 29150 later this afternoon.”

“Complicating the atmosphere somewhat was the trade situation between the US and EU. The European Commission chief Urusla von der Leyen said in Davos that the pair are ‘expecting in a few weeks to have an agreement that we can sign together’. But this push for reconciliation came with a warning from Trump that if a deal isn’t reached the bloc will face ‘very high tariffs’ on cars and other products.”

“After Wednesday’s surge, one that came thanks to the chances of a rate cut next week dropping from 75% to 50%, the pound was relatively muted at the open. Cable was unchanged just below $1.315, its best price for 2 weeks, while against the euro sterling’s 0.1% increase left it at a fresh 5-week peak of €1.185. Those levels will be tested by Friday’s flash UK PMIs.”

“The headline event this Thursday is arguably Christine Lagarde’s second meeting as ECB head, one that will see her initiate the central bank’s first strategic review since 2003. Any clues as to what this will mean for Lagarde’s approach to monetary policy will be poured over by investors.”

Nearly 60,000 jobs shed from UK retail in 2019

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Latest figures revealed on Thursday that nearly 60,000 jobs were shed in the retail sector last year. The news should not come as a surprise given that retail sales growth data for 2019 makes it “the worst year on record”. The British Retail Consortium said that retail lost the equivalent of 57,000 jobs last year. It is no secret that the UK retail sector has been struggling in recent years, with house hold names battling against gloomy trading conditions. “There were many challenges in 2019: businesses had to contend with the repeated risk of no deal Brexit, a general election and the ongoing transformation of the industry, leading to weak consumer demand,” Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said. Indeed, last year was a rather turbulent one for UK politics; the Brexit deadline was extended several times, there was an attempt to prorogue parliament and a general election taking place all in one year. “As a result, employment has suffered in retail, the UK’s largest private sector employer,” the Chief Executive continued. “This matters – retail offers many people their first job, a range of flexible working options, and huge opportunities for progression. Retailers may be investing heavily in their workers, through training and apprenticeships, but more could be done. The current inflexibility in the Apprenticeship Levy system means that much essential training is not covered, limiting the opportunities for many working in the industry.” The Chief Executive continued: “Moreover, it is worrying that the Government is standing by while tens of thousands of jobs are being lost. If the same was true in manufacturing or aviation, one can be sure that the Government would act. There are opportunities for action and the Government’s review of business rates could not come at a more crucial time. It is essential that they reform this broken system and rectify a tax that sees retail, which accounts for 5% of the economy, pay 25% of the burden.” Elsewhere in retail on Thursday, online fashion retailer ASOS (LON:ASC) shares rose as its latest update hinted at recovery signs following its difficulties from last year. Its string of profit warnings from last year suggests that the gloomy trading conditions to hit the sector were not merely confined to high street stores.

ASOS shares rise on recovery signs

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ASOS (LON:ASC) shares rose on Thursday after the online fashion retailer posted a rise in revenue for the four months ended 31 December. Shares in the company were up by 5% during Thursday morning trading. The online fashion retailer said that revenue growth was driven by a “record” Black Friday trading period. The results will provide joy to investors after a string of profit warnings were issued by ASOS last year. ASOS said that, for the four months ended 31 December, group revenue was up 20% amounting to £1.1 billion. Thursday’s update provides some relief compared to the situation ASOS found itself in over a year ago, back when the company issued a shock profit warning during the run-up to Christmas in 2018. It is no secret that the UK retail sector has been struggling in recent years; earlier in January the British Retail Consortium said that figures for 2019 make it “the worst year on record”. ASOS’ struggles over the past year shows that the gloomy trading conditions are not confined to the high street – online retailers also faced difficulty. “ASOS has delivered an encouraging start to the year,” Nick Beighton, CEO, said in a company statement. “Strong customer acquisition activity supported by robust operational performance has driven good momentum in all our markets,” the CEO continued. “As we said in October, the focus for this year is to further enhance our capabilities and leverage the investments we have made. It is still early in the year and much remains to be done, but we are encouraged by the progress we have made so far. We remain confident in our ability to capture the substantial opportunity ahead of us.” Shares in ASOS plc (LON:ASC) were up on Thursday, trading at +5.09% as of 10:07 GMT.

Sumo stays at top of its game

Video games services provider and developer Sumo Group (LON: SUMO) can be second half-weighted and that is particularly true of 2019. Sumo says that it has at least met expectations for last year and it has built up an impressive cash pile.
Team Sonic Racing was a success for Sumo last year and Sega is putting a lot of marketing muscle behind Sonic this year, which should help Sumo’s growth prospects.
Cash was £12.9m at the end of 2019 and the cash pile will continue to rise unless acquisitions are made – around £22m is likely at the end of 2020. In reality, acquisitions are likely and the use...

BlackRock CEO says climate change is an investment risk

The Chief Executive Officer of BlackRock said on Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg that climate change could become a risk to investors. BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink commented on the topic during an interview with the Editor-In-Chief of Bloomberg John Micklethwait at Bloomberg’s The Year Ahead event, which is held alongside the World Economic Forum in Davos. The debate surrounding climate change has accelerated recently, with activists such as Greta Thunberg advocating the urgent need to give attention to the climate crisis. “Clients worldwide had been asking me repeatedly more and more about how should they frame a portfolio with climate change considerations,” Larry Fink said in the interview with Bloomberg. “It was very clear to me that this is becoming a dominant theme in more and more of our investors.” “I wasn’t prepared to answer many of those questions at that moment, and it was very clear to me that I needed to focus on it,” Larry Fink continued. “I need to get BlackRock to focus on it. From September through the end of the year, we spent a great deal of time focusing on it.” “I spent a great deal of time talking to insurance company CEOs. I talked to the CEOs of the housing companies of America, and I talked to some different mayors, and I had conversations worldwide related to the impact.” “It was clear whether it was 10% or 20% more of our clients, it was clear to me that more and more clients were now thinking about how should they invest.” “It was very clear to me the whole issue of climate change is really related to whether it is certainty or uncertainty as a science.” Larry Fink continued: “I am not a scientist, but more and more, people are believing in some form of science, if not all the science. By being in the capital markets now for 44 years, it’s very clear we in the capital markets bring risk forward. We don’t wait until the risk is in front of us.” “In most cases, we navigate the risk, and through that process, we mitigate most risk. So the process of having more and more clients focusing on these issues was very clear to me that there’s a greater belief of the science, and as a result of that now, we should not avoid the conversation about climate change.” “Climate change is now becoming an investment risk.” “Investors focus on yield curve of whatever forms of risk we have. It was very clear to me now we need to bring forward better risks tools to navigate risk. This is a component of the letter asking more companies to be self reporting on things so we have better clarity and understanding how each company is navigating this issues.” “I’m not here to tell you these are the best tools. They are good tolls, and hopefully we have better tools. I do believe we are on this long path, and in 2019, most of the sustainable funds outperformed regular funds.” “You could argue that is a big momentum trade. We had record inflows […] Record flows in ESG. We announced every one of our products was going to have a sustainable counterpart so we could bring this forward and have more investors as part of this dialogue,” Larry Fink concluded the Bloomberg interview. You can watch the full interview for yourself on Bloomberg’s website here. Last year saw the rise of climate change activism, with figureheads like Greta Thunberg advocating the need to urgently address the issue. Greta Thunberg addressed the World Economic Forum on the topic: https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Do you see climate change becoming a risk to your investment portfolio?

Burberry’s good run continues as festive trading report comes back strong

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Burberry (LON: BRBY) have lifted their full year guidance following a strong period of festive trading.

The firm said that it beat its full year revenue guidance following higher sales across the Christmas trading period.

“This was another good quarter as new collections delivered strong growth and we continued to shift consumer perceptions of our brand and align the network to our new creative vision. While mindful of the uncertain macro-economic environment, we remain confident in our strategy and the outlook for FY 2020.” said Marco Gobbetti, Chief Executive Officer.

In the period to December 28, retail sales rose 1.1% year-on-year to £719 million from £711 million, or by 2% at constant currency.

On a like-for-like basis, sales climbed 3% during the period, building on a year before when they grew by 1%.

Notably, the firm said that the revenue increase was due to a rise in full price sales, which allowed ground to be made following political turmoil in Hong Kong.

In its Asia Pacific sector, sales rose by a low-single digit, Burberry said, with mainland China up in the “mid-teens” while Hong Kong sales halved.

For the financial year ending March, the company now expects revenue to grow by a low single-digit percentage, at constant currency. Previously, it saw flat sales at constant currency.

Regarding its outlook for financial 2020, the firm said:

“We now expect FY 2020 total revenue to grow by a low single digit percentage at CER compared to previous guidance of broadly stable. Adjusted operating margin is expected to remain broadly stable at CER despite the impact of disruptions in Hong Kong S.A.R.”

“FY 2020 is the second year of our plan to transform Burberry. Our focus in this phase is on investing to elevate our product offering, re-energise our brand and align distribution to our new luxury positioning. Against this backdrop, we made good progress in the quarter as we increased the availability of new products and continued to evolve our retail and wholesale networks.”

Good form continues for Burberry

In November, the firm saw its shares spike following an impressive interim update.

Burberry reported impressive revenue gains of 3% to £1.3 billion in the interim period, which caught shareholder appetite. Additionally, profit before tax climbed 11% from £174 million to £193 million.

Shareholders would have been further pleased as the clothing brand saw earnings per share increase to 36.4p an increase from 31.6p a year ago.

As a result Burberry increased its dividend by three per cent to 11.3p.

Burberry said new products designed by Ricardo Tisci has boosted sales, offsetting the effect of “considerable disruption” in Hong Kong where sales plunged.

However, sales in mainland China, Korea and Japan increased, along with the UK, Europe and the US.

Burberry shareholders will be impressed with today’s update, and will hope that the firm can build on the fine run that they currently are embarking on.

Shares in Burberry trade at 2,176p (-3.84%). 22/1/20 12:48BST.

United Oil and Gas get shareholders excited for Egyptian acquisition

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United Oil and Gas PLC (LON:UOG) have told the market that they are pleased with their prospect of their new investment in Egypt. The firm said that the testing performance of a soon to be acquired well in Egypt has justified the investment. Just before Christmas, United Oil and Gas outlined their intentions to acquire Rockhopper Egypt Ltd from Rockhopper Exploration PLC (LON:RKH). United updated the market by saying that they had conditionally raised $6.3 million to part fund their purchase. United Oil and Gas undertook a conditional equity offer, raising $6.3 million gross through the issue of 159.0 million new shares at 3 pence per share. Additionally, 150.6 million were conditionally places by brokers Optiva Securities and Cenkos Securities PLC (LON:CNKS). Today, United have updated the market about the prospect of their new acquisition. The ASH-2 well on Abu Sennan came on stream on January 2, and has “consistently” been producing at over 3,000 barrels of oil per day, equating to 660 barrels net to Rockhopper. The firm also said that gross production from the entire Abu Sennan licence since ASH-2 came online has been 8,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average, of which 1,760 barrels is net to Rockhopper. Brian Larkin CEO, United Oil and Gas PLC: “As the test results to date on the ASH-2 well demonstrate, Abu Sennan is a producing asset with considerable upside potential. At the effective date of the Acquisition (1st January 2019), production attributable to Rockhopper’s 22% interest in Abu Sennan was c. 800 boepd. Today it stands at c.1,760 boepd. While the interpretation of the data is continuing, it is clear that the intersected reservoirs have excellent production capacity. With this in mind, we are looking forward to completing this transformational Acquisition and working with our soon-to-be joint venture partners to optimise the field development plan for Abu Sennan. This includes a multi-well infill drill programme that is expected to commence shortly with the El Salmiya 5 well. “I would like to thank our existing shareholders, the incoming investors and BP who continue to support what will be a transformational deal for our company. Together with receipt of environmental approval for the development of the Selva Gas field in Italy and the extension of the Tullow-operated Production Sharing Agreement on the Walton Morant Licence offshore Jamaica, 2020 has got off to an excellent start. I look forward to providing further updates on our progress in the weeks and months ahead. ”

United agree deal with Tullow

United Oil and Gas last week also agreed an extended deal with Tullow Oil (LON:TLW) for operations in Jamaica. The two parties have furthered talks for the Walton Morant offshore asset in Jamaica. United holds a 20% interest in Walton, and said that the initial exploration period with Tullow has been extended to July 31 as it was due to expire at the end of this month. Tullow on the other hand hold the remaining 80% stake, and have the ultimatum as to whether they would “drill or drop” the asset. At the Colibiri project, United Oil have expressed interest that the joint venture will bring an additional partner to drill in 2021. Shareholders of United should remain confident for when operations do commence in Egypt and from today’s update there could be a lot more to come. Shares in United Oil and Gas trade at 3p (+5.32%). 22/1/20 12:31BST.

Sage shares up over 4% following North American and North Europe surge

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Shares of Sage (LON:SGE) have spiked on Wednesday as the firm gave shareholders an impressive update. The firm alluded to strong performance in North American and North Europe which drove results upwards. Sage alluded to double digit revenue growth in the first quarter of its financial year, as shares took to the rise. Shares in Sage trade at 769p (+4.80%). 22/1/20 12:04BST. The firm told the market that it had achieved recurring revenue of £410 million in the three month period ending in December. Notably, this was 11% higher than before and attributed the growth of software subscription by 25% to £286 million. Recurring revenue was gained from strong performance in both North America and North Europe, with strong momentum in its financial year continuing. North America recurring revenue was up 12% to £154 million, and Northern Europe rose 15% to £93 million. Jonathan Howell, Chief Financial Officer, commented: “Sage had a strong first quarter as expected. We have sustained last year’s growth momentum into the first quarter of FY20, as we continue to focus on driving recurring revenue through the transition to cloud-based subscription services, in line with our vision to become a great SaaS company. Looking ahead, we reiterate our guidance for the full year, as outlined in the FY19 results announcement.”

Sage bounce back from November blues

In November, the firm saw its shares crash following mixed annual results. The FTSE100 listed firm said to shareholders that it had experienced strong recurring revenue growth but a decline in annual profit. The accounting software business said that for the financial year that ended September 30, revenue was up 4.9% to £1.94 billion from £1.82 billion in financial 2018. Organic revenue growth was 5.6% to £1.8 billion from £1.7 billion, underpinned by software subscription revenue growth. Profit before tax was £425.0 million, down 11% from £475.0 million in 2018. Underlying profit before tax was down 9% to £361.0 million, compared to £398.0 million in 2018. Sage increased its full-year dividend by 2.5% to 16.91 pence from 16.50p “in line with the policy of maintaining the dividend in real terms”, which may act as a consolidation to shareholders. Sage have managed to bounce back strongly from prior setback, and shareholders will hope that the strong performance can continue across the year.

Ted Baker shares plunge after value of inventory overstated by £58m

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Ted Baker (LON:TED) shares plunged on Wednesday after the high-end fashion retailer said that it had overstated the value of its inventory. Shares in the company were trading almost 6% lower on Wednesday. At the start of December, Ted Baker said that it would appoint independent accountants to conduct a review of its stock inventory position. The review, which was conducted by Deloitte, found that the value of Ted Baker’s inventory was overstated by £58 million. “The Deloitte review has now largely concluded and Ted Baker expects to report that the value of inventory held on the Group’s balance sheet at 26th January 2019 was overstated by £58 million,” the company said in a statement. “This is materially higher than the £20-25m preliminary assessment announced on 2nd December 2019,” the company said. The company will next update the market with its preliminary results. Additionally in December, Ted Baker shares plunged after the clothing brand issued a profit warning. It said that the past year had been “the most challenging in our history”. Meanwhile, Lindsay Page resigned as Chief Executive Officer. The UK’s retail sector faced difficulty last year as high street names battled with gloomy trading conditions. Indeed, the British Retail Consortium said that 2019 was “the worst year on record” for the sector. Shares in Ted Baker plc (LON:TED) were down on Wednesday, trading at -5.96% as of 10:48 GMT.

WH Smith travel business drives revenue growth however shares stay in red

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WH Smith PLC (LON:SMWH) have reported “good” performance in their trading update on Wednesday, however shares are still in red. Shares in WH Smith trade at 2,480p (-2.36%). 22/1/20 10:36BST. The high street reader said that revenue growth in the 20 weeks period ending January 18 was 7%, however like for like revenue fell by 1%. WH Smith noted that high street business revenue fell by 5% on both a reported and like for like basis, which will worry shareholders. Gross margin was ahead of expectations however, and WH Smith said that they intend to identify further savings of £3 million. The travel business bloomed for the firm, as revenue growth of 19% was reported. This was driven by the acquisitions of Marshall Retail Group and InMotion. MRG was bought in October for £312 million, with InMotion purchased a year earlier for £198 million. Excluding the two deals, WH Smith in their travel sector still achieved revenue growth of 5% across travel overall which was impressive looking at the volatility of the airline and holiday market. Carl Cowling, Group Chief Executive said: “We are pleased with the progress the Group has made in the first 20 weeks, with total revenue up 7%. “During the period, we completed the acquisition of MRG ahead of plan and integration into the Group is progressing well. This acquisition is in line with our strategic focus to grow Travel, almost doubles the size of our International Travel business and accelerates growth in the US, the world’s largest travel retail market. Since announcing our intention to acquire the business, we are delighted to have won a further 8 new units in the US. “In UK Travel, we have seen continued growth across all our key channels and we are on track to open a new flagship pharmacy format at Heathrow Terminal 2 this summer. “Our High Street strategy continues to deliver through continued gross margin gains and tight cost control. “Throughout this busy trading period, it is our colleagues, particularly across our stores, who work tremendously hard and I would like to take this opportunity to thank them. Without the continued support of our fantastic team we would not be able to achieve these results. “Looking ahead, we are on track for the current year and as we continue to grow our share of the global travel retail market, the Group is well positioned for the years ahead.”

WH Smith and Marshall Retail deal

In October, the firm announce that it had agreed to buy US based Marshall Retail for a reported $400 million. The deal will be financed by a combination of new debt and equity, with £155 million being raised from equity placing. Additionally, a £200 million term loan facility will help fund the move with completion expected in the first quarter of 2020. Michael Wilkins Marshall Retail Group CEO was optimistic about the move saying “I feel very proud to announce that we have reached an agreement with UK based retailer, WH Smith, to acquire Marshall Retail Group. WH Smith is one of the world’s oldest retailers with close to 1,600 stores across the world.This is an incredible milestone for our business and is testament to the outstanding team at MRG. We are proud of our success, particularly our recent growth in airports, and I’m especially excited about the potential this unlocks for MRG in the years to come” WH Smith have done well considering the state of the British retail market. Despite shares being in red on Wednesday, shareholders should remain optimistic across 2020.