Boris Johnson as Prime Minister – thoughts and market reaction

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So, Boris Johnson is our new prime minister. Capturing 66% of party member votes, with an 87% turnout, for the man who we’re 99% sure is related to Donald trump. While you might expect from that beginning that this is going to be something of a tirade against the man entering office; I see some scope for optimism. Agreed, Mr Johnson shares his American counterpart’s proclivity for dated social views – describing Black people as “piccaninnies” and gay men as “tank-topped bumboys” among his most cringeworthy soundbites – however we can try to look for chinks of light in what most of the establishment might see as the dark cloud of populism he supports. https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js What has certainly captured the public’s imagination so far are his attempts to be charismatic. I say ‘attempts’, because many think his shoot-from-the-hip style has seen him reveal parts of his character which make him unfit to stand as the figurehead of four nations. However, I believe this is exactly why he has gained his new position.  

Boris on Brexit, diplomacy and policy-making

Much like the US president, and regardless of whether he backs up his rhetoric or not, Mr Johnson’s outlandish and brash persona have enabled him to appear the strong and no holds barred character that swathes of disillusioned voters were begging for. Like him or not, I can only imagine people are hoping he can assert himself – and by extension the UK – on the international stage in the same way Donald Trump has (despite the tensions it has stirred up with China and Iran). People have likely grown tired of being told the world will burn down because of Brexit, and falling short of prophesising the revival of colonial sentiment, I think his supporters are hoping he will be more publicly assertive about Britain’s ambitions during Brexit proceedings. Ultimately, he has a lot of work to do to appear the strong and charismatic leader he has promised to be. If he wants to avoid igniting a revival of Labour party support, he needs to introduce what he might see as counter-intuitive policies on environmental issues and increase spending on housing, in addition to police and defence. After that, he has to keep his promise of leaving the EU on the 31st of October; specifically in a way that doesn’t make Britain look diplomatically weak, and more importantly in a way that does the least harm to British business in the long-run. That latter issue is the main problem to ameliorate, and I believe outside of Brexit not being what the established political centre ground wanted, it is one of the main reasons Brexit has not yet been delivered. Regardless of whether media lamentations of Britain being turned into a ‘post Brexit tax haven’ are true or not, the real question that must be addressed is who will be affected most (worst)? If those who were given new-found hope by Boris are the worst hit by possible economic uncertainty, he will quickly lose his mandate. As a cursory note – there is already discussion of what the new PM will mean to the Union. In response (and trying not to sound too reductionist), I would point out that SNP support has waned in recent years and Scottish Tories could be galvanised by a new style of leadership. Also, given that the Union survived brutal and prolonged austerity policies, partially caused by bankers in London, it is likely to survive Boris. https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js  

Market sentiment on our new PM

The fact is we haven’t got much idea what will happen in the next couple of months. The bulls among us could hope Boris has a zany plan under wraps and markets will prosper as British exports get a second wind. Of course, after the pound fell through the floor with the ‘Leave’ verdict in 2016, UK exports were given a new lease of life. On the other hand, the bears will already be predicting the next crash, with Brexit and Johnson’s threat of a crash out of the EU on the 31st of October, offering another cause for market uncertainty. That all being said, today’s story is one of ‘sell the rumour, buy the truth’. Although I do enjoy hearing the doomsday predictions of my journalist colleagues, their pessimism was misplaced today. After seeing the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate fall to 1.1104 at 09:00 today, Sterling then recovered around 0.2% to 1.1153 just before midday, as Boris was giving a measured victory speech. Realistically this is no surprise. While it makes a dull day at the office for tabloids, Johnson’s place as the bookie’s favourite meant the market had already ‘priced in’ the impact of him assuming office – as such there will likely be little change when he officially takes office tomorrow. As stated by Esther Reichelt, FX Analyst for Commerzbank, “I was asked repeatedly over the past week what events I was keeping an eye on in connection with Sterling. The result of the Tory leadership contest being announced today really will only indirectly be part of them. The result will be announced around lunchtime. A clear victory by Boris Johnson is likely to be fully priced in. That means only a complete surprise victory by his adversary Jeremy Hunt would move the market.” https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Deliver, Unite, Defeat. That was Mr Johnson’s goal as he delivered his victory speech today. Hopefully the quality of his premiership will not match the unfortunate ‘DUD’ acronym of his new mantra. He did later add ‘Energise’, and while we can be sceptical about his past record and how well he will unite and better the country as a whole, we can at least hope he can energise British politics. With a view to revise Boris’s unfortunate acronym – and remain open-minded about what he brings to the table – good luck ‘DUDE’.

10.5 million Brits believe they are in worst financial position ever, FairMoney.com research

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A fifth of Brits believe that they are in the worst financial positions that they have ever been in, nationally representative research named Brexit Broke Me reveals. The research, conducted by FairMoney.com, shows that 10.5 million people in the UK feel that they are in the worst financial position they have ever found themselves in. Additionally, over half of Brits (53%), said that their average disposable income per week is less than £0. The research coincides with the breaking news that Boris Johnson has been successful in succeeding Theresa May as the next Prime Minister of the UK. But will he be able to resolve the Brexit deadlock and ensure a resolution is found before the UK comes crashing out of the EU on 31 October? The research also reveals that 22 million Brits do not understand how Brexit will affect household bills and 30 million believe that Brexit will increase the price of food and produce in supermarkets. “At long last this laborious process has come to an end. We welcome the news of a new Prime Minister and urge that the concentration of the country is fully focussed on resolving the Brexit conundrum,” Dr Roger Gewolb, Founder and Executive Chairman of FairMoney.com, provided a comment. “Our research at FairMoney shows quite demonstrably that millions of Britons are in their worst financial situation for years and quite frankly this process has taken valuable time from looking for resolutions to solve the Brexit issue,” Dr Roger Gewolb continued. “Now that a new leader has been elected, for the good of the British people, we need to put the constant scaremongering that has dominated our political rhetoric on the back-burner, and get this country moving forward. This is not about personal politics, but for the good of the country. We need to ensure that the next Prime Minister can lead the country in a positive direction. That means restoring Great Britain’s mojo and getting our focus back.”

Fever-Tree sales lose their sparkle as growth slows

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Fever-Tree, the producer of carbonated mixers for alcoholic spirits, said that the UK saw a moderation in growth rates for the first half of 2019. Shares in Fever-Tree were down over 10% during Tuesday morning trading. In the UK, Fever-Tree’s largest market, revenues were up 5% over the period, considerably less than the 73% half-year growth experienced a year ago. Fever-Tree cited the poor weather in the past quarter as having a dampening effect on growth rates in the short term, a factor which has impacted several different sectors. This year’s summer has been unable to match the incredibly strong trading period experienced in summer 2018. The company said that, in the UK, its range of flavoured tonics now accounts for over half of its total tonic sales at retail. Alongside the growth of the UK gin craze, its tonics continue to stimulate consumers’ appetites for exploring different flavour combinations. As Britain’s unquenchable thirst for gin grows, consumers purchased 66 million bottles of gin last year, an annual rise of 41%. In the US, revenue grew 31% compared to the first half of the previous year, which is a growth of 24% on a constant currency basis. Shares in Fevertree Drinks plc (LON:FEVR) were trading at -10.10% as of 11:13 BST Tuesday.

Getlink posts decline in Eurotunnel traffic as no-deal becomes “very likely”

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Getlink, the company which manages and operates the Channel Tunnel between England and France, revealed on Tuesday that Eurotunnel traffic decreased during the first half of the year. The operator also said that a no-deal Brexit is looking “very likely” ahead of the new 31 October deadline for the nation’s departure from the European Union. Truck and car traffic through the Eurotunnel were lower than last year. Car traffic decreased by 2%, and Getlink has cited the market-wide uncertainties surrounding Brexit as a reason for this decline. The group revealed a 2% growth in revenue to €523 million, whilst group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) decreased 2% to €255 million. “In the first half of the year, despite the jolts resulting from the political uncertainties of Brexit the Group has once again demonstrated the resilience of its business model with revenue growth for the tenth time in a row,” Jacques Gounon, Chairman and CEO of Getlink, said in a company statement. “Without the recent strike by French customs officers, the Group’s EBITDA would also have increased. The Group remains confident in its ability to manage the next stages of Brexit and confirms the dividend growth policy,” the Chairman and CEO continued. Getlink also provided its outlook for the year ahead, though it emphasised that its figures were in the context of the nation’s departure from the European Union.
“In the context of a UK’s exit from the European Union, the Group gave a financial objective of an EBITDA of €560 million in case of a ‘no-deal’ or €575 million in case of agreement. As the absence of an agreement on Brexit on 31 October is becoming very likely, the reference scenario for 2019 is now the “no-deal” one,” Getlink said in its results. Shares in Getlink SE (EPA:GET) were trading at -0.81% as of 11:43 CEST Tuesday.

Supermarket sales suffer compared to last year’s, Kantar reveals

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New data published on Tuesday by Kantar reveals the first overall growth decline in the supermarket sector since June 2016. Year-on-year supermarket sales dropped by 0.5% in the 12 weeks to 14 July, marking the first overall growth decline in three years. Kantar said that the tough period was not unexpected given the record sales experienced during last year’s summer heatwave. However, the market is expected to return to growth once the comparative 2018 summer period is over. All major grocers faced a challenging 12 week period, with growth slowing at every supermarket other than Ocado. Kantar said that the main factor behind the decline is shoppers heading out to stores less often. Given last year’s hot weather, consumers visited stores more frequently and closer to home in order to ensure their cupboards were stocked as they enjoyed the warm weather and the men’s football World Cup. The difficulties in matching last year’s growth is clear from the sales figures of traditional summer categories. Consumers spent £75 million less on alcohol compared to last year, with beer down 11% and cider down 13%. Soft drinks sales dropped by £56 million and ice-cream by £55 million. Lidl, which recently announced a plan to invest £500 million into opening new stores across London, was the fastest growing bricks and mortar retailer over the period as sales rose 7%. Additionally, Aldi reached a new record share of the market, accounting for 8.1% of sales. Ocado (LON:OCDO) stood out over the period in terms of growth as it increased its sales by 11.9%. Asda’s (NYSE:WMT) performance faced a particularly difficult comparison compared to last year’s, during a time when sales grew at their fastest rate in over 6 years. Sainsbury’s (LON:SBRY) sales dropped 2.3% over the period, and Tesco (LON:TSCO) now holds a 27.2% share of the market. Earlier this year, Sainsbury’s £7.3 billion takeover of Asda was blocked by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) because it will create a “poorer overall shopping experience”.

Algorithmic trader Vanguard Capital appoints senior advisor

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Vanguard Capital AG announced the appointment of Imran Lakha to its Senior Management team on Monday. The Company operates at the forefront of modern trading, using strong risk management, machine learning algorithms and AI to further its ambitions in the field of quantitative investment strategies. Today, it introduced Imran Lakha in an advisory capacity, with his role being to help foster growth in the business. Vanguard lauded Mr Lakha’s credentials, with today’s update telling investors of his time as portfolio manager at BlueCrest Capital Management, among his other positions at what the Group described as ‘tier 1 investment banks’. The Group added that Mr Lakha would assume responsibilities with immediate effect, and that his macro insight and expertise in appraisal and risk management would make him a boon to the Company and its investors.

Vanguard Capital comments

Founder and CEO of the Company, Sezer Sherif, offered the following insights, “Imran is a highly regarded professional within the trading and investment sector and I am, therefore, delighted to welcome him to the Vanguard Capital team.” “Despite market volatility, we have continued to outperform industry competitors month on month, whilst focusing on business growth. Working in a senior advisory capacity, Imran will prove vital to furthering the Vanguard Capital brand and, as a result, we are incredibly excited to see what the next 12 months will bring.” The Group’s statement continued, “His exceptional twenty years of experience and knowledge in multi-asset trading makes him an invaluable addition in overseeing the portfolio construction of Vanguard Capital’s quantitative strategies.” Elsewhere in asset and investment management, there have been updates from; Highcroft Investments plc (LON: HCFT), City of London Investment Group PLC (LON: CLIG), Miton Group PLC (LON: MGR), Walker Crips Group plc (LON: WCW) and Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LON: LIO).  

Midpoint Holdings and a new approach to Currency Exchange

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Are we in a period of flux? While the move to tech formats is well documented, there needs to be greater discussion about the paradigm shift occurring in banking services as a whole. It is little secret that public trust in traditional banks hasn’t recovered since the financial crash, and rightly so. While discussion of this subject often boils down to something like ‘we paid for their greed’, the full picture is bleaker. Products such as CDOs – a primary cause of banks needing to be bailed out during the last financial crash – have merely been rebranded as ‘bespoke tranche opportunities’ and are still sold today. So, traditional banks haven’t really changed their ways, but perhaps consumers will force them to. Take currency exchange, for instance. If consumers begin trusting new market entrants with their assets, activities such as currency exchange could become more seamless and less of a price that we accept we have to pay. At least that’s what companies like Midpoint Holdings Ltd (TSXV: MPT) will be hoping. Midpoint Holdings describes itself as the first currency exchange matching platform, and intends to capture prospective clientele who are disenchanted with currency exchange bid-offer spreads. The Company warns consumers against the fallacy of ‘commission-free’ currency exchange offered by the majority of forex providers, and seeks to offer an alternative with its own patented technology. Midpoint trades currency at the prevailing interbank midmarket rates, and states that this could yield average savings of up to £1,370 on each £100,000 traded for US Dollars, and £1,360 when traded for Euros.

Midpoint Holdings Comments

Company CEO David Wong, states, “Deceptive advertising for ‘commission-free’ foreign exchange is widespread in the UK and other markets, but impossible to stamp out as it’s incredibly misleading but technically accurate. Our unique technology connects buyers and sellers virtually, cutting out the middlemen, freeing everyone from the expense of exchanging currencies through traditional methods.” “Signing up to the service is free, quick and easy, taking only a few minutes and the savings are potentially huge. It’s ideal for anyone buying a property or travelling abroad and for foreign students who are supported from home.”

Not quite free but worth it

Put simply, this represents an improvement on your run-of-mill currency exchange offering; fora minimal upfront and transparent fee’. You’d be forgiven for thinking the Company’s core principal is a tad dubious (it laments others for charging for currency exchange, but they do the same). Regardless, what it offers is certainly worth paying attention to. Its fees are upfront, and if you regularly travel and exchange considerable sums of money, the savings opportunity Midpoint’s services offer are worth taking into account. While prudence would suggest we steer away from any source lauding the altruism of a financial service, it is worth noting what developments such as this could represent. For the time being at least, we can think of Midpoint: at best acting as the first of many useful currency tools designed for the modern consumer, and at the very least it represents a cause for traditional banks to stop believing consumers have no choice but to concede to extortion. Other recent updates from assets and finance have come from; Arbuthnot Banking Group Plc (LON: ARBB), City of London Investment Group PLC (LON: CLIG) and Walker Crips Group plc (LON: WCW).

Biome Technologies revenues dip as 2018 ‘exceptional demand’ wanes

Commercially driven technology group Biome Technologies plc (LON: BIOM) has seen its share price fall during trading on Monday, following a fall in H1 revenues on a year-on-year basis. The Group told investors that first half revenues narrowed to £3.6 million, down from £4.4 million for H1 2018, and causing the Company to forecast a loss before ITDA and share option charges. The Company’s bioplastic division saw revenue rise on a year-on-year basis from £0.9 million to £1.4 million for the first half, while the Stanelco RF division saw the exceptional demand for fibre optic furnaces seen during 2018 wane, and as a result the division’s revenue dipped from £3.5 million to £2.2 million on-year. Biome Technologies said their cash position represented its trading performance and working capital requirements, down from the end of Q1 at £2.3 million to £1.7 million at the end of Q2. Biome Technologies statement The Company’s statement continued, in regard to its bioplastics division, “In line with our strategy, it has been particularly encouraging to see these growing revenues coming from three key growth drivers: a greater number of customers; a wider range of end-use application areas; and a broader geographic base. Whilst much of this growth is based on development projects that commenced some time ago, the continued global focus on the problem of plastics, both in their disposal and the climate change impact of their manufacture, is supporting the appetite for our existing products and continuing to increase our product development and customer project pipeline.” Continuing with its update on Stanelco RF, “Encouragingly, the division has recently signed a £1.3m contract for the supply of a number of fibre optic furnaces to a regular international customer for delivery in H2 2019. This underpins revenue expectations for the second half and underlines the further requirement for capacity in the fibre optic market.” Looking forwards, it said, “Our two divisions continue to perform to our expectations. We expect the growth drivers of the Bioplastics division to continue to propel it towards eclipsing Stanelco RF as the principal revenue generator for the Group within the next year or so.” Investor notes After a slight recovery, the Company’s shares were down 11.66% or 50.15p to 379.85p a share on Monday afternoon. Elsewhere in the tech sector, there were updates from; Midwich Group PLC (LON: MIDW), Boku Inc (LON: BOKU), Telit Communications Plc (LON: TCM), TP Group PLC (LON: TPG) and Mobile Streams Plc (LON: MOS).

Serabi Gold maintains guidance with increased production and PEA

Brazil focused mining company Serabi Gold PLC (LON: SRB) posted a positive update for the second quarter, for its operations around the Tapajos region of Para State, Northern Brazil. The Company stated that Q2 gold production stood at 9,527 ounces. When combined with Q1 production, year-to-date production has grown 5% compared to H1 2018, to around 20,000 ounces. Total ore mined was 44,784 tonnes at 6.72g/t during Q2, with 43,711 tonnes of run of mine ore processed through the plant at 6.72g/t. The Group added that horizontal development increased 30% quarter-on-quarter, up to 2,419 metres for Q2. Serabi Gold then told investors that it had commenced its Preliminary Economic Assessment on the Coringa Gold Project, after the mineral resource estimate in Q1. The Company maintained its 40,000-44,000 ounce guidance for FY19.

Serabi Gold Comments

Company CEO, Mike Hodgson, added the following insights, “In the longer term we expect plant production will be further enhanced with the installation of an ore sorter, which I am pleased to report has arrived at site. The associated infrastructure is in construction, and we will commission the unit during the second half of the year. Whilst we are not forecasting production benefits from the ore sorter in 2019, we do expect a significant impact in 2020.”

“After a very busy 2018, exploration has been limited to geochemical programmes over the multiple geophysical anomalies, mostly enveloping the Sao Chico orebody. Results are anticipated during the next quarter after which we hope to re-commence drilling programmes across the key targets later in the year.”

“With approximately 20,000 ounces produced for the year to date, I believe we can improve further during the second half of the year, most notably with the additional ounces the tailings treatment is now bringing. With gold prices very much in our favour as well as exchange rates, it is a good time to be a producer in Brazil. With this very encouraging first half of the year, along with the forthcoming PEA on Coringa and further positive progress on licencing and permitting, I look forward to reporting further positive news in the coming months”.

Investor notes

Following the update, the Company’s shares have dipped 3.23% or 2.00p to 60.00p per share 22/07/19 13:29 BST. Peel Hunt analysts reiterated their ‘Buy’ stance on Serabi Gold stock.

Elsewhere in the mining and minerals sector, recent updates have come from; Cora Gold Ltd (LON: CORA), Kavango Resources PLC (LON: KAV), Ariana Resources plc (LON: AUU), Rio Tinto plc (LON: RIO) and Bushveld Minerals Limited (LON: BMN).

Highcroft Investments issues positive property and ambivalent investor updates

Real estate investment trust company Highcroft Investments plc (LON: HCFT) posted its update for the six months through 30 June 2019, which revealed growth in rental income and mixed sentiments for investors. The Company were pleased to book an 11.6% jump in gross rental income and 13.2% growth in net rental income, to £2,726,000 and £2,678,000 respectively.

Highcroft added that net investment into property increased from a £2,473,000 divestment to £11,897,000 invested on a year-on-year basis during the first half; while property valuation increased 14.3% during the first half, from £77.7 million at December 2018 to little over £88.8 million at the end of H1 2019.

Highcroft Investments comments

On these results, the Company’s statement disclosed the following, I am pleased to report continued good trading results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2019. The board is happy with the progress of its ongoing strategy of developing a high-quality income-producing property portfolio, based on carefully sourced quality assets and tenants producing stable, secure income. This strategy has resulted in property income growth of 11.6% and an increase in adjusted earnings per share of 14.4% to 37.2p. Whilst our total property valuation increased by 14.3% after the acquisition of two new properties, our like-for-like property valuation fell slightly, by 0.35%, in the period (2018 1.6% uplift). This was due to the current market sentiment, particularly in our retail assets, but also the costs associated with our two acquisitions in the period. This led to a reduction in total earnings per share to 21.9p (2018 55.8p). Our net asset value per share fell by 1.0% in the period.” On its financial news, it added, “At 30 June 2019 the cash position was £610,000 (2018 £5,057,000) while our medium-term loans totalled £26,200,000 (2018 £19,400,000), resulting in a net gearing level of 41% (2018 23%). Our loan to value was 29.5% (2018 25.6%). The medium-term loans are at fixed rates with a weighted average of 3.5%.” And looking forwards, it said, “Whilst the ongoing property investment environment, in particular the retail sector, is likely to remain challenging for the remainder of the year, we believe that our asset selection criteria have helped to ensure that our current portfolio and tenant mix create a strong base from which to continue to develop our business and generate further shareholder value.”

Investor notes

Although the Company saw an expansion of its portfolio and increased rental income, the positive news for its shareholders was not quite as consistent. While the Company reported a growth in its dividend, with property income distribution up from 18.75p to 21.00p, and a 14.4% growth in adjusted earnings per share, net assets per share were down 1% and total earnings per share dived 60.8% from 55.8p to 21.9p a share. Following the update, the Company’s shares have grown 1.61% or 14.70p to 929.70p a share 22/07/19 10:05 BST. Elsewhere in asset and investment management, there have been updates from; City of London Investment Group PLC (LON: CLIG), Miton Group PLC (LON: MGR), Walker Crips Group plc (LON: WCW), Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LON: LIO) and Mattioli Woods (LON:MTW).