JD Wetherspoons posts profit jump as CEO lambastes politician and economic models

Pub group JD Wetherspoon (LON:JDW) posted a 7.2% increase in annual profit before tax helped by a 6.8% rise in like-for-like sales. The group also enjoyed an increase in Free cash flow per share to 92.p from 88.4p previously. Despite the increase in profit and cash flow JD Wetherspoon decided to maintain their Full year dividend at 12p per share. As has become customary with JD Wetherspoon performance updates, Chairman Tim Martin took the opportunity to attack remain politicians and pour cold water on any suggestion a hard Brexit will hit the UK’s economy. Tim Martin, the Chairman of JD Wetherspoon commented: “Journalists regularly ask Wetherspoon for comments on Brexit – although some publications begrudge our few paragraphs on the subject in this section. “The UK is clearly in political deadlock, parliament having refused to carry out the pre-referendum promise in the leaflet sent to every household which said “The Government will implement what you decide.” “Democratic power in the UK in the last 30 years has been diluted by a political faction in parliament, the media and boardrooms, which has a quasi-religious belief in the undemocratic EU – with its unelected presidents, MEPs who cannot instigate legislation and unaccountable court. Voters resent this loss of power – and distrust of politicians and the ‘elite’ is the result. “In recent weeks, the 21 ‘Tory rebels’ (over half Oxbridge), who helped to block ‘no-deal’ were joined by 25 bishops (two-thirds Oxbridge), the latter group asserting (Appendix 3), contrary, many of us believe, to common sense, that no-deal will be disadvantageous to the poor. “As another straw in the wind, former Supreme Court judge and Reith lecturer Lord Sumption described Brexit supporters as ‘grim fanatics’. “John Bercow, Emily Thornberry, Dominic Grieve, Keir Starmer, Jo Johnson, Philip Hammond, David Gauke, David Lidington, Hilary Benn, Rory Stewart and many other pro-EU Oxbridge MPs have played a leading role in frustrating the referendum result, by enmeshing parliament in a legal and administrative spider’s web. “The economic judgement of this faction, led in the past by the likes of Michael Heseltine, Peter Mandelson and Tony Blair, the CBI and the Financial Times, has been extremely poor. “It advocated joining the disastrous predecessor of the euro, the exchange rate mechanism, the euro itself, and incorrectly forecast an immediate recession in the event of a Leave vote in the referendum. “Author and athlete Matthew Syed has recently illustrated how a lack of diversity among elites leads to poor decisions. Investment guru Warren Buffett has pointed out that forecasts tell you a lot about the forecaster – but nothing about the future. “The faction’s forecast today is that leaving the EU without a deal will be a ‘cliff-edge’, a ‘catastrophe’ or a ‘disaster’. “Remainer MPs’ main argument – having consistently voted against the only deal on offer – to justify their attempts to scupper Brexit, is that costs for consumers and businesses will axiomatically increase in the event of ‘no deal’. “However, leaving without a deal avoids a legal liability to pay £39 billion, allows the UK to eliminate protectionist import taxes (tariffs) on over 12,000 non-EU products, (including rice, oranges, bananas, Antipodean wine, children’s clothes and car parts etc) and results in resumption of the control of fishing waters. “Above all, no-deal increases UK democracy – the most powerful economic stimulant. “It is an absurdity to argue that a reduction in UK input costs, combined with increased democracy, will have a harmful effect on the economy – just as it would be absurd for a business to adopt this argument if its own costs were reduced. Tim Martin continued his rejection of economic models that suggested Brexit would cause a negative impact and opted to look at potential long term benefits: “Elite Remainers are ignoring the ‘big picture’, regarding lower input costs and more democracy, and are mistakenly concentrating on assumed short-term problems, such as potential delays at Channel ports – which are easier to extrapolate on their computer models. “Despite continuing political problems, stemming from the transfer of democratic power to a technocratic elite, Wetherspoon continues to perform well. Like-for-like sales for the six weeks to 8 September 2019 were up 5.9%. “We currently anticipate a reasonable outcome (pre IFRS16) for the current financial year, subject to our future sales performance. “As in previous years, we will provide updates, during the year, on the company’s trading.”

Co-op posts mixed results and corroborates Yellowhammer food shortage warning

Diverse British consumer co-operative retail business Co-operative Group reported improved sales alongside a drop in profits, due to challenging conditions experienced by its funeral business. The Co-op Chief Executive then came out to substantiate some of the concerns laid out in the recently published Operation Yellowhammer documents. The Company celebrated a 12% rise in first half sales on a year-on-year basis, up to £5.4 billion. This period also represented a 22nd consecutive quarter of like-for-like sale growth in its Co-op Food branch, which saw total sales increase by 3% during the period. As a result of the performance, the Group said they were able to return £29 million to its members and £6 million to 4,000 local causes. However, this good news was somewhat offset by a drastic contraction of profits led by its funeral branch. The Co-op said that first half profits dropped from £44 million to £25 million, which it said was led by a 10% drop in death rates. The Group added that it expected Co-op Health to be rolled out nationally by early 2020, and that it had extended its online food delivery trials using zero emission electric cargo bikes and in partnership with Deliveroo. It continued by saying it had re-entered the life insurance market with the launch of Co-op Life Cover, and that it was awarded Grocer of the Year at the Grocer Gold Awards and Consumer Business of The Year at The London Evening Standard Awards.

Co-op comments on their performance

Steve Murrells, Chief Executive, stated,

“We’ve enjoyed another good six months where the strength of our business has led to a further £35 million of value being generated for our members and their communities. Our food business continues to perform strongly in a highly competitive market and has now recorded 22 consecutive quarters of like-for-like sales growth. As our largest business, it is providing the fuel for our growth in terms of member value and community impact.”

“In funerals we are actively re-positioning the business to meet the changing needs of our members. We are the market leader but we will also lead the market in providing better choices and options for our customers in the years ahead. Likewise, the development in our insurance, legal and health businesses will enable us to significantly broaden the range of Co-op services, in areas where our members know the Co-op difference can be clearly seen.”

Allan Leighton, Chairman, said,

“We have made further progress during the first six months of this year and the strength of our business can be seen by our underlying financial position and through the increasing impact we’re having in local communities.”

“The Co-op is now 175 years young, and we have worked hard to ensure that we remain relevant to all generations and in particular younger co-operators. Whether this is using our presence at eight music festivals to introduce people to our values and ways of doing things, or by developing motor insurance products specifically with the needs of young drivers in mind. The Co-op is thriving and we are committed to growing our Co-op difference and impact for generations to come.”

Warnings on food shortages

In addition to a mixed but largely positive set of results and outlook, the Co-op corroborated the food shortage warnings laid out in the recently released Operation Yellowhammer paper. Clause seven of the ‘Key Planning Assumptions’ reads as follows, “Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease. Critical dependencies for the food supply chain (such as key input ingredients, chemical and packaging) may be in shorter supply. In combination, these two factors will not cause an overall shortage of food in the UK but will reduce availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups. The UK growing season will have come to an end and the Agri-food supply chain will be under increased pressure at this time of year, due to preparations for Christmas, which is the busiest time of year for food retailers. Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food supply chain. There is a risk that panic buying will cause or exacerbate food supply disruption.” While we have been told these are a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ set of preparatory assumptions, Co-op Chief Executive Steve Murrells seems to confirm that some of these ideas aren’t impossible. While the Company are making efforts to expand their warehouse space to stockpile water and canned goods, he says that the challenge will come primarily from fresh foods. “We think there will be shortages in some fresh food areas. Where that is the case, we would endeavour to bring it in to give our customers a choice,” said Mr Murrells, speaking to The Guardian. He added that it would be easier to “knit fog” than attempt to predict the fallout from a crash-out Brexit. “The question for us is how much of the price increases can we absorb? […] How much can we spread that impact over a period of time?” said Murrells. He said that there would be contingency for their meat supplies given that all of the Co-op’s meat comes form the UK. He noted that to avoid empty shelves, the supermarket would resort to air freighting fresh fruit and other supplies. Regarding panic buying, Murrells said there were “very early signs” that British people were stockpiling. He went on to say that he expected this kind of behaviour to intensify as the UK neared a No-Deal outcome, with consumers most likely heading to larger outlets rather than local convenience stores such as the Co-op. Murrells said that Leaving the EU with a Deal would be the best outcome, “because it was the only way to avoid the inevitable impact on our customers”.

Investor notes

The Company’s shares have dipped 0.10% or 13p to 12,800p per share 12/09/19 15:00 BST. The Group has a running yield of 8.748%. Elsewhere in food and beverage news, there have been updates from; Bakkavor Group Plc (LON: BAKK), Avangardco Investments Public Limited (LON: AVGR), Loungers PLC (LON: LGRS), The Coca-Cola Co (NYSE: KO), Devro plc (LON: DVO), Greencore Group plc, (LON: GNC) and NWF Group plc (LON: NWF).

ECB cuts interest rates and reinstates QE to tackle eurozone slowdown

The ‘goodbye kiss’ has been delivered! Quantitative easing was more modest – with lower-than-expected volumes of asset purchases – but the trajectory of interest rate cutting was continued today by incumbent ECB President Mario Draghi. The eurozone’s main interest rate has remained unchanged at 0%, but the deposit facility rate (paid by banks on reserves at the ECB), was dropped by 10bp to negative 0.5%. Regarding its first QE package since 2016, the ECB committed to buying €20 billion of debt per month – lower than the €30 billion commitment that was expected – which will commence from November 1st. Mr Draghi said the interest rate shift would remain “at their present lower levels” until eurozone inflation rates reached their target of 2%. The asset purchase programme announced today was more hawkish than expected, and perhaps geared towards giving incoming president Christine Lagarde additional flexibility. The ECB’s QE programme will, “run for as long as necessary”. Reasons given for the nature of today’s package involved an attempt to counter the “protracted slowdown” in the eurozone economy, which is “more marked than expected”. Further, it is intended to counteract the “persistence of downside risks”, of a trade and geopolitical nature – Brexit, for instance. Finally, because of the recent downward revision in projected inflation levels, and the muted nature of inflation at present. Ranko Berich, Monex Europe head of market analysis, commented on the ECB programme, “At first glance, the ECB has not quite thrown the kitchen sink at the eurozone economy,” “The QE package is shy of market expectations, which were €30bn a month. But the Bank is clearly back in the business of serious policy easing and more aggressive action could easily be taken in response to a worsening in conditions.” Alongside a No-Deal Brexit, the Joint Committee of the three European Supervisory Authorities warned that a prolonged low-interest environment represented a risk to the financial stability of the EU bloc. The Committee’s report today, read, “While the monetary policy response to weakening growth and inflation outlook has helped restore the confidence in the financial markets in the short term, over the medium term persistently low interest rates, combined with flattening yield curves, put pressure on the profitability and returns of financial institutions, incentivise search-for-yield strategies and increase valuation risks,” A couple of related, concluding questions about helicopter money, ‘giving money directly to citizens’ and ‘should central banks step in’ to do a job governments aren’t doing (one of the questions was inspired by a paper co-authored by Draghi’s thesis advisor) were palmed off by by Mr Draghi, who stated, “This is a fiscal matter, not monetary policy”. Though some will interpret this as an admission that the measures implemented by the ECB are insufficient. Elsewhere in large financial player and macro economic news, there have been updates from; Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON: LLOY), Jo Johnson quitting, Hilary Benn’s Brexit delay bill, Parliament being prorogued, Barclays (LON: BARC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR: DBK).

IGAS Energy shares rally alongside H1 EBITDA growth

Independent oil and gas company IGAS Energy PLC (LON: IGAS) saw its shares rise on consistent progress across its first half fundamentals. The Group’s revenues grew from £21.1 million to £21.2 million on a year-on-year comparison for the first half. More impressively, though, the Company’s adjusted EBITDA rose from £6.0 million to £7.7 million on-year, and the Group swung from a £1.2 million loss to a £0.8 million profit on continuing activities. Further, IGAS Energy net debt narrowed from £7.4 million to £5.9 million between the ends of the two periods. The Company added that their average production also increased from 2,292 boepd to 2,360 boepd during the first half, and that they had continued to make progress across their projects and core conventional business.

IGAS Energy comments

tephen Bowler, Chief Executive Officer, said:

“We have had a good performance from our existing producing assets in the first half of the year and we continue to generate strong operating cash flow.”

“From the results at Springs Road, we now know we have a world-class resource and early indications are that we can attain significant gas flow from this basin. We look forward to the full analysis of the data set and to moving forward to appraise this asset.”

“The independent Committee on Climate Change recognises natural gas has a significant role to play to meet the 2050 net zero emissions target. It is clear that the UK needs a secure long-term supply of methane to meet our net zero targets and that the UK sources that methane not only from a diverse supply but also with the lowest emissions footprint – that being domestically produced onshore gas.”

“We were encouraged by the recent statement from BEIS and look forward to a positive dialogue with the appropriate ministers to discuss the role of indigenous oil and gas production as we move to net zero emissions in 2050.

Investor notes

The Company’s shares have continued to rally, up 6.69% or 3.38p to 53.93p 12/09/19 12:56 BST. Neither a p/e ratio nor a dividend yield are available for IGAS Energy stock, their market cap is £63.58 million. Elsewhere in the oil and gas sector, there have been updates from; Trinity Exploration & Production PLC (LON: TRIN), Baron Oil PLC (LON: BOIL), Cabot Energy PLC (LON: CAB), Reabold Resources PLC (LON: RBD), Eco Atlantic Oil and Gas Ltd (AIM: EOG), Valeura Energy Inc.(LON: VLU) and President Energy PLC (LON: PPC).

British American Tobacco stubs out 2,300 roles

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British American Tobacco said on Thursday that it will cut 2,300 roles in an attempt to reinvest in the growth of its new products. Shares in the company were up during trading on Thursday. The multinational cigarette and tobacco manufacturing company hopes to simplify its business and become “more efficient, agile and focused”. It hopes to deliver savings that can be reinvested in the growth of its new products such as vapour, tobacco heating products and oral tobacco. British American Tobacco said that it will be reducing management layers, creating fewer larger more accountable business units and simplifying all key business processes. Additionally, the plans include cutting 2,300 roles globally. As it removes management layers, British American Tobacco expects over 20% of senior roles to be affected. It plans to substantially complete this by January 2020. “Since taking on the role of Chief Executive five months ago, I have been clear that I wanted to make BAT a stronger, simpler and faster organisation and ensure a future fit culture,” Jack Bowles, Chief Executive, said in a company statement. “My goal is to oversee a step change in New Category growth and significantly simplify our current ways of working and business processes, whilst delivering long-term sustainable returns for our shareholders. This is a vital first move to help achieve these goals,” the Chief Executive continued. “A programme of this significance involves decisions that will be difficult for our people, but ultimately it is the right thing for our business.” “As a result, BAT will be better placed to deliver on our target of generating £5 billion of revenues in New Categories by 2023/24.” The company revealed a “strong” full year performance in February for the 2018 financial year. There are a number of health risks associated with smoking. Moreover, with the growth of the vaping trend, health officials in the US have warned against the use of vaping as it has killed at least three people. Shares in British American Tobacco plc (LON:BATS) were trading at +1.68% as of 13:11 BST.

Yesterday’s exuberance leaves markets muted despite Trump’s tariff delay

After preliminary optimism on chatter surrounding a return to more amicable exchanges between the US and China, the market’s reaction this morning was markedly more muted. This is perhaps unsurprising; not only will many assume the return of good will to be little more than hot air, buy yesterday’s index boom has left markets in an inflated position from which it has hard to make more progress (in essence Trump was late to the party). More importantly, though, today is the ECB meeting which will determine Draghi’s final round of rate cuts and asset purchases. Speaking on the morning’s movements, Spreadex Financial Analyst Connor Campbell stated,

“As investors wait and see whether Mario Draghi will deliver a goodbye kiss of stimulus to the Eurozone, Donald Trump rewarded investors’ recently renewed optimism by delaying October’s scheduled tariff hike on $250 million of Chinese goods.”

“Normally, such a move would be greeted with an explosion of green by the global markets (even if the delay is actually only a 2-week pause). And yet, the European indices were rather timid after the bell. The FTSE pushed up to 7350 as it rose 0.2%, while the DAX and CAC saw similar gains, rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively.”

“There are likely a couple of reasons for this. The European indices really let rip yesterday, meaning the markets are sort of in the backwards position of having risen sharply BEFORE the ‘gesture of good will’ from Trump some would argue justifies said growth. And, it is worth stating, such a slender increase does still leave them at fresh multi-week highs.”

“The main muting factor, however, will be the relative uncertainty surrounding the day’s ECB meeting. Investors are after not only a rate cut, but a new round of the central bank’s asset purchase programme as well. Anything less than that may leave a bitter taste in the market’s mouth, and could cause the boards to turn red this afternoon.”

“The pound remained rather sanguine this Thursday – almost like Parliament’s prorogation has given it a holiday away from the political rollercoaster of the last few weeks. Against the pound it nudged up 0.1%, while against the euro it was unchanged at €1.1191.”

So, no surprises there then. Investors want the Earth from a central bank which is currently propping up liquidity across European markets. While a continued trajectory of rate cuts is unsustainable, indices will glow red if the ECB don’t comply – investors know the central bank want to foster growth and they’re happy to hold them to ransom for the positive fundamentals they’re seeking. Elsewhere in large financial player and macro economic news, there have been updates from; Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON: LLOY), Jo Johnson quitting, Hilary Benn’s Brexit delay bill, Parliament being prorogued, Barclays (LON: BARC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR: DBK).

Morrisons pre-tax profits rise but Brexit weighs

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Morrisons (LON:MRW) posted a rise in pre-tax profit on Thursday in its half year results, though it warned that the extended Brexit process had weighed on customer behaviour. Shares in the company were up during trading on Thursday. The supermarket chain said that for the half year to 04 August, profit before tax and exceptionals rose 5.3%, amounting to £198 million. Moreover, group like-for-like sales excluding fuel and VAT were up 0.2%. Morrisons added that sales comparatives were strong as 2018-19 was boosted by favourable summer weather, the World Cup and the royal wedding. The poor weather this year was unable to match the heatwave that hit the nation the year prior. “Very favourable summer weather last year became unfavourable this year, particularly in May and June, and there were no similar events to match last year’s boosts from the World Cup and royal wedding,” the supermarket chain said in its results. Additionally, Morrisons said that the extended Brexit process had weighed on customer behaviour. “Customer behaviour continued to be impacted by the uncertainties around the prolonged Brexit process, and consumer confidence continued to be low,” Morrisons added. Morrisons had previously warned back in a first quarter trading statement that political and economic uncertainty continued to impact consumer confidence. With the Brexit deadline fast approaching, the question remains – will the UK be able to secure a deal before its departure from the European Union? Data by Kantar earlier in July revealed the first overall growth decline in the supermarket sector since June 2016. Kantar did say, however, that this was not unexpected given the record sales experienced during the summer heatwave last year. Therefore, Morrisons is not alone in feeling the effects from last year’s stronger comparatives as all major grocers faced a challenging period. Shares in WM Morrison Supermarkets plc (LON:MRW) were trading at +4.14% as of 11:37 BST Thursday.

John Lewis warns against no-deal Brexit as profits plunge

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John Lewis posted a loss on Thursday in its half year results as trading conditions for the British retailer “continued to be difficult”. The company posted a loss before its bonus, tax and one-off costs of £25.9 million, down from the £0.8 million profit it recorded the year prior. “Within that, operating profit before exceptionals and IFRS 16 improved in Waitrose & Partners by £14.1m to £110.1m, largely due to property profits this year, but we also saw an improvement in gross margins and a strong operational performance,” Sir Charlie Mayfield, Partner and Chairman of the John Lewis Partnership, said in the retailer’s half year results. John Lewis also warned that a no-deal departure from the European Union will have a “significant” impact on the business. “Should the UK leave the EU without a deal, we expect the effect to be significant and it will not be possible to mitigate that impact,” Sir Charlie Mayfield warned. “In readiness, we have ensured our financial resilience and taken steps to increase our foreign currency hedging, to build stock where that is sensible, and to improve customs readiness,” Sir Charlie Mayfield continued. “Brexit continues to weigh on consumer sentiment at a crucial time for the sector as we enter the peak trading period.” Indeed, with the extended Brexit deadline fast approaching, the question remains – will the UK be able to secure a deal by Halloween? For now, the only thing certain is additional uncertainty. With Brexit uncertainty looming, the UK high street has been struggling amid a gloomy trading environment as of late. Sports Direct (LON:SPD) acquired House of Fraser last year in a £90 million deal after the British department store had previously announced that it was going into administration. Just last September, John Lewis announced a 99% drop in profits. It rebranded last year, adding “& Partners” to its name.

LSE bid gives FTSE a short-term surge, ECB stimulus proposal galvanises European indices

As expected – and regardless of the long-term implications – today’s bid by HKEX for the LSE left the FTSE frothing at the jowls. Despite the surge, it should be considered more bad news than good. With Greene King being sold to Hong Kong’s richest tycoon, there needs to be some resistance against the sale of strategically important assets – such as the LSE which is the ‘beating heart of the Square Mile’ and London’s financial sector. Regardless, European market indices followed closely behind the FTSE rally, led by the promise of Mario Draghi’s ‘goodbye kiss’ market stimulus package. Speaking on this afternoon’s entertainment, Spreadex Financial Analyst Conor Campbell said, “Reports of a takeover bid for the London Stock Exchange by its Hong Kong counterpart helped the FTSE best its peers on Wednesday.”

“At its peak jumping 15%, before settling for a slightly less impressive 6% increase, the LSE provided the main thrust of the UK index’s afternoon gains. The FTSE added 1.1%, pushing it above 7340 for the first time since the start of August, and leaving it with a good chance of closing the right side of 7300, something it has struggled with since September began.”

“Though the FTSE was far and away the day’s biggest winner, the Eurozone indices still put a solid shift in. Anticipating that Mario Draghi will bestow upon the region a new round of stimulus as his departing present, the DAX and CAC climbed 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.”

“While trade war optimism has been given as a reason to explain Wednesday’s gains, it wasn’t enough for the Dow Jones to come out of the gates hot. Nevertheless, its meagre 0.2% rise still pushed it towards 26950, a level last seen at the end of July.”

“It was a mixed session for sterling, suggesting that some non-Brexit news took hold despite the Scottish courts ruling that Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament is unlawful. Against the dollar it fell 0.2%, the greenback aided by a better than forecast PPI reading; against the euro, however, it jumped 0.3%, the single currency fretful ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.”

Elsewhere in large financial player and macro economic news, there have been updates from; Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LON: LLOY), Jo Johnson quitting, Hilary Benn’s Brexit delay bill, Parliament being prorogued, Barclays (LON: BARC) and Deutsche Bank (ETR: DBK).

Sports Direct shareholders re-elect Mike Ashley

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Sports Direct (LON:SPD) said on Wednesday that its shareholders have voted to re-elect Mike Ashley as a director of the sports high street retailer. The company published the results of its Annual General Meeting (AGM) in which it revealed that 90.99% of votes were in favour of the re-election of Mike Ashley as a director. “We remain totally focused on delivering our elevated proposition which, following the AGM, continues to be supported by the investor community,” said a company spokesperson, according to the BBC. “We are already seeing some exciting milestones with the acquisition of Jack Wills, the opening of the new Flannels flagship store in London and plans for Frasers now in motion,” the spokesperson continued. “We are building a young and dynamic executive team to assist in this transition but making sure we retain the core values in the existing business that have allowed the business to prosper over the years.” “Mike Ashley was re-elected at the AGM with over 90% of the vote and the audited accounts for the year ended 28 April 2019 were also approved by over 99% of shareholders.” Sports Direct, which is roughly 62% owned by Mike Ashley, made headlines in July for delaying the publication of its annual results. The delayed results revealed a £605 million tax bill from Belgian authorities, whilst also warning the extent of House of Fraser’s financial difficulties. The company acquired House of Fraser last August in a £90 million deal after the British department store had previously announced that it was going into administration. Retailers across the UK have been struggling for survival amid a gloomy trading environment, with job cuts and store closures prevailing. Mike Ashley himself warned MPs at the end of last year that the internet is killing the high street. Shares in Sports Direct International plc (LON:SPD) were trading at +0.15% as of 16:35 BST Wednesday.